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000
FXUS64 KSHV 060908
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
408 AM CDT Thu May 6 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Friday/

Dry conditions along with light/variable to calm winds this
morning, as surface high pressure has settled over the region.
This has allowed temperatures to fall into the mid 50s areawide,
with temperatures likely to drop a couple more degrees by
daybreak. Locations near and north of the Interstate 20 corridor
could be a tad warmer, as some high clouds continue to move across
these areas limiting radiational cooling. Additional mid level
clouds are starting to move into the region from the northwest
this morning along a pre-frontal trough located ahead of another
cool front, that will bring a reinforcing shot of drier air into
the region by Friday. These clouds should continue to spread
southward during the first half of today, but should mostly be
confined to our northern zones or areas generally along and north
of the Interstate 20 corridor. The trough should move through the
region by this afternoon. Moisture is very limited with this
system, so no rain is expected. However, clouds should scatter
out and diminish in coverage by this afternoon in wake of the
trough. With mostly sunny skies this afternoon, high temperatures
should climb into the lower 80s areawide, which is near climatic
normal.

The aforementioned cool front will push through the region during
the evening and overnight hours tonight. Surface high pressure
will quickly settle into the region on Friday in wake of the
front, along with northwesterly flow aloft. This will result in
mostly sunny skies with slightly drier and cooler conditions.
Highs in our northern and eastern zones will top out in the upper
70s, with lower 80s expected across the remainder of the region as
upper ridging starts to build in from the southwest. /20/

.LONG TERM.../Friday Night through Thursday/

There appears to be no major changes in overall thinking regarding
the weather expected during this long-term period. Upper-level
ridging will maintain dry conditions into the weekend, before
degrading into zonal flow by Saturday. When this ridging breaks
down, it will allow for moisture and cloud cover to return to the
region, ahead of the next big weather producer on Sunday. During
this timeframe, a cold front will drop south across the Four-States
region, increasing shower and thunderstorm coverage throughout the
day. However, this front will not make it all the way through the
area before stalling. This now stalled boundary will allow for
continued rounds of shower and thunderstorm development through the
middle of next week. While no severe weather is currently
anticipated, a strong thunderstorm or two can not be ruled out.
Additionally, some of this rainfall activity may be moderate to
heavy at times. While isolated heavy rain wouldn`t be too much to
write home about, this threat may remain for a few days. As such, 2-
3 inches of rainfall looks likely in some areas, with locally higher
amounts possible from Sunday night into Wednesday.

/44/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 102 AM CDT Thu May 6 2021/

AVIATION...

For the 06/06z TAFs...Latest satellite imagery continue to show an
area of high clouds moving across northern half of the region,
affecting all TAF sites except KLFK. This will likely continue
overnight, with additional mid level clouds moving through later
today. Otherwise, look for the ongoing VFR conditions to prevail
across the region through this TAF period. The only exception
will be for KLFK where some patchy fog could develop for a couple
of hours around daybreak. Aside from this, light/variable winds
overnight will become north/northeasterly near 5 kts during the
day, and light/variable again after sunset. /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  81  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  54  77  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  51  77  57  83 /   0   0   0  10
TXK  54  79  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  51  77  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  58  81  62  85 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  55  81  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  57  84  60  86 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

20/44