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000
FXUS64 KTSA 060742
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
242 AM CDT Thu May 6 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Another nice day is in store across eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas under mostly clear skies and temperatures rising into the
70s. A weak cold front will move through the area this afternoon
and evening, and there is a slight chance for a few showers and
thunderstorms to affect parts of northwest Arkansas this
afternoon. A couple storms could be strong with small hail and
gusty winds, but most of the weather should remain east of our
forecast area. Following the front, it will be another fairly
cool night for early May, especially across northwest Arkansas as
surface high pressure settles over the area.

Showers and storm chances arrive again Friday morning and
afternoon, mainly north of I-40, as another weak shortwave dives
down across the region. Low level moisture and instability will
be pretty scarce, so no severe storms are expected and
precipitation is expected to remain pretty light. The upper level
pattern shifts slightly on Saturday as a trough dig down across
the Intermountain West putting us in a belt of westerly to
southwesterly winds aloft for the next several days as the trough
hangs out west of the area. This will cause a rather unsettled
pattern this weekend into next week with rain chances about every
day across the region. Severe weather will be a concern, mainly
Saturday night into Sunday as a surface cold front moves southeast
into the area. There is allow threat for some severe storms along
a dryline that will push into western Oklahoma Saturday afternoon
along with a deepening surface cyclone. Also a decent mid level
jet streak will eject out over the area providing some ideal wind
fields for tornadoes initially across central Oklahoma and then
moving into eastern Oklahoma Saturday evening. Low level moisture
return appears to be lacking at this time and very warm 850 temps
will provide a stout cap over the area suppressing for widespread
convection or any at all. If a storm or two can form Saturday
afternoon it will pose a significant severe risk and bears
watching over the coming days.

The aforementioned cold front will move into northeastern Oklahoma
Sunday morning with showers and thunderstorms expected along and
ahead of the front as it moves through. As the front moves into
southeast Oklahoma on Sunday afternoon, a few strong to severe
storms will be possible ahead of it with large hail and damaging
winds the main threats. The front then stalls and meanders around
central and northern Texas over the next few days as several more
disturbances move within the broader mid level flow. This will
allow for rain and thunderstorms chances to continue through at
least mid week when the main trough finally ejects east into the
Plains and out of the area. Severe chances appear low after Sunday
as we will be primarily north of the boundary and instability will
be marginal at best. Temperatures will be well below normal
during this time, especially in places that remain socked in with
cloud cover and rain.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  49  73  62 /   0  10  30  30
FSM   78  48  73  57 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   78  50  77  62 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   73  43  71  59 /   0  10  30  30
FYV   72  40  69  55 /  10   0  20  40
BYV   71  42  67  55 /  20   0  20  40
MKO   75  47  72  60 /   0   0  20  20
MIO   70  43  68  57 /  10   0  20  50
F10   76  49  75  62 /  10   0  20  20
HHW   78  52  77  60 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


LONG TERM....04