National Weather Service Text Product Display

Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
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AXUS73 KBIS 211855
DGTBIS
NDC001-007-009-011-013-015-021-023-025-029-031-033-037-041-043-
045-047-049-051-053-055-057-059-061-065-069-075-079-083-085-087-
089-093-101-103-105-251900-

Drought Information Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
155 PM CDT Fri May 21 2021 /1255 PM MDT Fri May 21 2021/

...EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT NOW FOUND IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...


SYNOPSIS... Despite recent beneficial rains being received in some
areas, they have been of limited spatial coverage. Parts of North
Dakota that have not received appreciable moisture as of late
have seen their drought designation worsen to the D4, or
Exceptional, category. Clouds of dust, poor crop germination, and
delayed or dissappointing growth of native vegetation are
indicative of the kinds of impacts being felt. Some areas,
including parts of the James River basin, have actually received
substantial amounts of rain over the past few days,
however...while the amounts are helpful, it remains to be seen if
it will substantially decrease the impacts over the coming
days/weeks.

Streamflow, wetlands, and small lakes in central and western North
Dakota are all well below normal. Soil moisture values, while
temporarily improved in the upper few inches of soil after
rainfall, have not tended to improve at depth. Surface water
availability and quality in small wetlands and dugouts continues
to be a concern going forward.


Below is a summary of precipitation from 1 March to 21 May, 2021.

Location.....Precipitation Received.....How Far Below Normal
Hettinger.........0.58 inches.............-2.33 inches
Minot.............1.59 inches.............-2.18 inches
Dickinson.........1.92 inches.............-1.91 inches
Bismarck..........1.23 inches.............-2.44 inches
Jamestown.........2.19 inches.............-2.06 inches
Williston.........1.25 inches.............-1.62 inches

The values presented are for the Minot Experimental Station and
not the NWS operated ASOS at the Minot International Airport.
Williston data for precipitation are from the ASOS at the airport.
Data used for Jamestown are from the State Hospital site, not the
ASOS at the airport.

While these deficits may seem small, they continue to increase at
a critical time of year and follow a moisture deficit that is
generally much larger over the longer term.


STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS... The Governor of North Dakota has
declared a statewide drought disaster and activated the State`s
Drought Task Force to begin meeting to discuss ways to mitigate
expected impacts. The State Drought Task Force is led by the North
Dakota Department of Emergency Services and includes numerous
state and federal partners.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS... Despite modest amounts of precipitation,
soil moisture has not greatly improved, with maybe a few local
exceptions. A return to warmer temperatures and sunny days will
again see the soil surface dry out quickly through evapo-
transpiration. Soil moisture models still generally reflect
single to low double digit percentiles for the vast majority of
western and central North Dakota. So while the recent moisture is
going to greatly help recently planted crops germinate, a lack of
soil moisture in the lower root zone will still keep the crops
in need of timely rains to ward off drought related problems.

RIVER AND STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS... Streamflow values across North Dakota
are widely in the single to low double digit percentiles where not
supported by upstream releases from water supply reservoirs.

AGRICULTURE IMPACTS... Blowing dust, poor germination, and a
generally lackluster development in the earlier planted crops are
now being reported. Without normal to above normal rainfall over
the coming weeks, crops will continue to exhibit a lack of vigor
and fail to meet development goals. A lack of moisture has delayed the
normal greening up of the countryside and resulted in an extended
spring wildfire season. Over 1100 separate fires, consuming just
under 100,000 acres of vegetation thus far in the year is well
above normal levels of fire activity, for the whole year.

Stock dams are not likely to fill in the southwest even as a
passing thunderstorm may add some runoff. Nonetheless, poor water
quality early in the summer should be expected this grazing
season. Hay shortages, stressed pasture land, and increased
sulfates in watering holes are expected to challenge ranchers
across western and central North Dakota.

FIRE DANGER HAZARDS... Fire restrictions and bans remain in place
across much of western and central North Dakota. An overall lack
of appreciable moisture is slowing the normal greening up of the
countryside. One of the big fire concerns now is that any
appreciable rainfall will encourage vegetative growth, only to see
that vegetation dry out early in the summer due to the lack of
soil moisture. This will increase the amount of easily combustible
vegetation during the heat of the summer.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... The near term, 6-10 and 8-14
day outlooks favor near normal temperatures and a near normal to
slightly wetter than normal weather pattern. Looking out a little
farther at the one-month outlook for June, the Climate Prediction
Center favors an above normal temperature expectation and below
normal chances for precip in western North Dakota, while central
and eastern North Dakota are in the equal chances category for
above normal, near normal, or below normal precipitation. The
three-month outlook for June, July and August favors above normal
temperatures for the state with below normal precip for western
North Dakota, while holding the eastern part of the state in the
equal chances category for precip.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK... Recent precipitation has done
little to nothing in the way of boosting streamflow. While the
recent moisture may have produced some optimism in the general
public`s view, without continued timely rainfall, the region will
quickly regress due to a lack of soil moisture. In assessing the
medium to long- term outlooks, there is not much to support an
optimistic view of the drought being over soon. All forecasts and
outlooks suggest this drought is more likely to continue or worsen
than it is to wane over the coming weeks to next couple of
months.


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... This product will be updated again in early
June unless there are significant changes in conditions.

&&

Related web sites...
additional information on current drought conditions may be found
at the following web addresses /use lower case letters/...

U.S. Drought Monitor...http://www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu
National Integrated Drought Information System...
http://www.drought.gov
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Midwestern Regional Climate Center...
http://mcc.sws.uiuc.edu/index.jsp
High Plains Regional Climate Center...http://hprcc.unl.edu
NWS River Information...http://www.weather.gov/ahps
USGS River Information...http://water.usgs.gov
US Army Corps of Engineer...http://www.mvr.usace.army.mil

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
The Drought Monitor is a multi-agency effort involving NOAA`s
National Weather Service and National Climatic Data Center...the
USDA...state and regional center climatologists and the National
Drought Mitigation Center. Information for this statement has
been gathered from NWS and FAA observation sites...State
Cooperative Extension Services...the USDA...USACE and USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
If you have any questions or comments about this Drought
Information Statement...please contact...

National Weather Service
2301 University Drive Bldg 27
Bismarck, ND 58504
Phone...701-250-4224
bis.webmaster@noaa.gov

$$
AJS
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
