National Weather Service Text Product Display

Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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AXUS74 KBRO 211634
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TXC047-061-215-247-261-427-489-505-241200
Drought Information Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1135 AM CDT Fri May 21 2021

...Drought conditions persist, but improving across Deep South
Texas...

.SYNOPSIS...

An active weather pattern across Deep South Texas has brought
rainfall to every rain gauge at some point over the past two weeks,
improving drought conditions across the board. Some locations,
including most of the mid to lower Rio Grande Valley have
obliterated severe drought thanks to persistent moderate to heavy
rainfall. The latest drought monitor does not include the heavy to
torrential rainfall on Wednesday and there remains a chance of rain
nearly every day into early next week, so further drought
improvements are expected.

Over the past 90 days...the majority of rainfall has fallen across
the Rio Grande Valley and Kenedy County. Coastal Kenedy, Willacy,
and Cameron counties have received anywhere between 150 to 300
percent of their normal rainfall, while the remainder of Kenedy,
Willacy, and Cameron counties, as well as northern Brooks,
northeastern Jim Hogg, and southern Hidalgo counties have received
between 110 to 200 percent. Northern Hidalgo, southern Brooks,
southern Zapata, most of Starr, and southwestern to eastern Jim Hogg
counties have received anywhere between 75 to 110 percent of their
normal rainfall. Most of Zapata, northwestern and southeastern Jim
Hogg, and northeastern Starr counties have received anywhere between
25 and 75 percent of their normal rainfall.

According to the latest United States Drought Monitor...Exceptional
(D4) drought conditions have improved and are no longer being
observed across Deep South Texas. Extreme (D3) drought conditions
are now being observed across Zapata, Jim Hogg, and western Starr
counties. Severe (D2) drought conditions are now being observed
across the remainder of Starr, western to southern Brooks,
southwestern Kenedy, and northern Hidalgo counties. Moderate (D1)
drought conditions are now being observed across central Brooks,
central to southern Kenedy, northwestern Willacy, and central to
southwestern Hidalgo counties. Abnormally dry conditions are being
observed across the remainder of Brooks, Hidalgo, Cameron, Willacy,
and central to southeastern Kenedy counties. Drought conditions have
improved and are no longer being observed across northeastern Kenedy
County.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS.

According to the Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook by the
National Interagency Fire Center on May 1st, the potential for
significant wildland fires across Deep South Texas is normal through
August 2021. The latest observed Fire Danger Map from the Texas
Inter-Agency Coordination Center (TICC) for May 20th, indicated low
fire danger across Deep South Texas.

The latest Keetch-Byram Drought Indices (KBDI) were between 700 to
800 across portions of northwestern Zapata County, with KBDI values
between 600 to 700 across the remainder of northwestern to central
Zapata County and portions of northeastern Starr County. KBDI values
of generally 500 to 600 were found across portions of northeastern
and southern Zapata, northwestern and southeastern Jim Hogg, and
northern and central Starr counties. KBDI values of 300 to 500 were
found across portions of central Jim Hogg, southern Zapata, the
remainder of Starr, northern Hidalgo, southeastern Kenedy, and
southern Brooks counties. KBDI values of 0 to 300 were found across
the remainder of Deep South Texas, including northeastern Jim Hogg,
northern Brooks, most of Kenedy, Willacy, Cameron, and southern
Hidalgo counties.

Residents of Deep South Texas are still urged to take extra
precautions when conducting any outside burning, and should contact
county officials for any scheduled burning. Currently, the Texas
Forest Service reports Zapata, Jim Hogg, Brooks, Starr, Hidalgo,
Willacy, and Cameron counties as having burn bans in effect.
Residents are also reminded that fire danger can change quickly from
one day to another as winds and relative humidity values vary,
especially after frontal passages.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS.

According to the United States Department of Agriculture and Texas
Agrilife Extension Service Agents...many counties received rainfall
that improved soil moisture conditions. Willacy County reported up
to 6 inches and flooding in low areas, Zapata County reported up to
3 inches, and Jim Hogg County reported up to 1.5 inches of rainfall
for the week. Growing conditions were favorable in some areas, with
vegetable production underway. Cameron County reported cotton was
squaring in a small number of areas. Wildlife should benefit in
areas that received rainfall. Livestock tanks were filling, and
creeks and rivers were flowing. Pasture and rangeland conditions
depended on soil moisture. Some areas rebounded dramatically with
green growth, but some areas remained in poor shape with
supplemental feeding continuing for livestock. Cattle producers
continued to cull herds due to mainly feed and hay prices. Citrus
trees continued to slowly improve and sugarcane harvest continued.

WATER RESTRICTIONS.

According to the Texas Commission of Environmental Quality
(TCEQ)...there are 32 cities or water supply entities that are under
voluntary or mandatory water restrictions. There are 8 Public Water
Supply entities in Cameron county, 13 in Hidalgo county, 6 in Starr
county, 3 in Zapata county and 2 in Willacy county. All water users
are urged to conserve water.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

Overall, temperatures have been near to slightly below normal
through May to this point, with a very active pattern bringing well
above normal rainfall over the past week and a half. Rainfall this
month has rewritten the story for the year, doubling to quadrupling
some annual rainfall totals to this point, bringing all three
climate sites back above normal for 2021.

Rainfall to date in May at Brownsville was 4.38 inches, or 3.03
inches above normal. Rainfall to date in 2021 at Brownsville was
8.34 inches, or 1.96 inches above normal.

Rainfall to date in May at Harlingen was 5.80 inches, or 4.34 inches
above normal. Rainfall to date in 2021 at Harlingen was 7.48 inches,
or 1.47 inches above normal.

Rainfall to date in May at McAllen was 3.87 inches, or 2.65 inches
above normal. Rainfall to date in 2021 at McAllen was 5.75 inches,
or 0.23 of an inch above normal.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

Meteorological Outlook...A low pressure system across the western
Gulf of Mexico is expected to push inland into the weekend,
producing bands of scattered showers and thunderstorms across Deep
South Texas early this weekend. Abundant low level moisture and
seabreeze boundaries may help continue the chance of rain into early
next week before high pressure builds once again. Temperatures
remain just below normal, but continue a gradual warming trend into
next week.

Rainfall of generally one tenth to one half of an inch is expected
across Deep South Texas into Friday, May 28th, with the best
rainfall along the coast through Tuesday, May 25th. Overall, near to
slightly below normal rainfall is expected through Sunday, May 30th.

High temperatures will stay slightly below normal, ranging from the
mid and upper 80s east to low and mid 90s west this weekend through
Tuesday, with near normal overnight lows, generally in the low to
mid 70s. Temperatures warm a couple of degrees each day late next
week, topping off well above normal by Friday, May 28th. Overall,
above normal temperatures are expected through Sunday, May 30th.

The long range climate outlook for Deep South Texas through August
2021...derived from guidance from the National Weather Service and
the Climate Prediction Center...indicates that above normal
temperatures are generally expected for Deep South Texas into late
summer with equal chances of above or below normal rainfall. The
latest monthly drought outlook indicates that drought will persist
across Deep South Texas through the month of May. The latest
seasonal drought outlook indicated drought will remain but improve
over portions of the northwestern ranchlands and brush
country through August 2021.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

According to the Texas Water Development Board (TDWB)...the current
Texas water share at Falcon Reservoir has increased during the past
four weeks to 25.6 percent. This is below the previous level of 26.7
percent three months ago. The Texas water share at Falcon at this
time last year was at 27.8 percent. The current Texas water share at
Amistad Reservoir has decreased during the past four weeks to 51.8
percent. This is also a decrease from a previous level of 60.9
percent three months ago. The Texas water share at Amistad at this
time last year was at 60.0 percent. The reservoirs at Falcon and
Amistad provide much of the water for the Rio Grande Valley.
Residents, including growers and ranchers of the lower Rio Grande
Valley are urged to take all necessary steps to conserve water.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

The next Drought Information Statement will be issued around Friday,
June 4th, 2021, unless conditions warrant an earlier update.

RELATED WEB SITES...

For additional information...and the latest weather forecast for
Deep South Texas...visit our website at www.weather.gov/rgv. You may
also visit the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center
website at www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov and get the latest information on
reservoir levels from the International Boundary and Water
Commission (IBWC) at www.ibwc.gov.

Additional web sites:

NWS BROWNSVILLE DROUGHT PAGE: http://www.weather.gov/bro/drought

NWS BROWNSVILLE Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS):
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=bro

U.S. Drought Monitor: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu

U.S. Drought Portal: http://www.drought.gov

National Drought Mitigation Center: http://drought.unl.edu

Texas Water Development Board Reservoir Website:
https://waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

Texas Interagency Coordination Center (TICC): http://ticc.tamu.edu

Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (water restrictions):
www.tceq.texas.gov/drinkingwater/trot/location.html

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

The Drought Monitor is a multi-agency effort involving NOAA`s
National Weather Service and National Centers for Environmental
Information...the USDA...state and regional center climatologists
and the National Drought Mitigation Center. Information for this
statement has been gathered from NWS and FAA observation sites...the
USDA...state Agrilife Extension Service District agents, Texas Inter-
agency Coordination Center, Texas Forest Service, state and federal
wildlife departments Texas Commission on Environmental Quality
(TCEQ), Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) and the International
Boundary and Water Commission (IBWC).

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

If you have any questions or comments about this drought information
statement...please contact...

National Weather Service
20 South Vermillion Avenue
Brownsville, TX
Phone: 956-504-1432 Email: sr-bro.webmaster@noaa.gov

$$

Hallman
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
