National Weather Service Text Product Display

Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS
Versions: 1 2
393
AXUS74 KEPZ 160425
DGTEPZ
NMC013-017-023-029-035-051-TXC141-229-190430-

Drought Information Statement
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1025 PM MDT Thu Apr 15 2021

...LA NINA ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT...

SYNOPSIS...
February, and especially March, is typically the beginning of the
driest period for southern New Mexico and west Texas, with the
dry period running through the end of May. Add to this a moderate
La Nina pattern, and a long stretch of dry weather can be
expected. And that is how our dry pattern is playing out. From
February through mid April, most of the area has seen about 25-60%
of its normal rainfall. Much of Otero and Hudspeth Counties have
been a bit more fortunate, with 50-100% of normal rainfall through
this same period. El Paso has .40 inches of rain since February
1, which is just under 50% of normal. Making it worse, almost the
entire amount fell in one day--our Valentines Day winter storm. El
Paso has had no measurable rain since February 16. For the water
year (Oct 1 through Apr 15), the region is around 20-50% of
normal.

Drought status is mostly unchanged from the beginning of
February, mostly because southern New Mexico and west Texas are
already in extreme to exceptional drought. The CPC drought outlook
through the end of July is for current drought conditions to
continue.

Elephant Butte reservoir is currently at 11.1% capacity as of
April 15. This compares to 9.8% one month ago, and 27% one year
ago.

LA NINA UPDATE:
From CPC...latest data now shows that La Nina continues to weaken,
with an ONI 3.4 value of -0.9, which now puts our current La Nina
in the weak category.

IRI/CPC...latest forecast is for continuing weakening of La
Nina, with a transition to neutral status by May or June.

CPC MONTHLY OUTLOOKS:
May Temperature- a good chance for above normal temperatures.
May Precipitation- a fair chance of below normal rainfall.

CPC LONG TERM OUTLOOKS:
May through July Temperature - a strong chance of above normal
temperatures. May through July Precipitation - nearly equal chance
of above or below normal rainfall.


SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
D0 = Abnormally dry conditions signal the possible onset of
drought. They are characterized by slow crop growth and elevated
fire risk. Remember that drought is the leading hazard in
economic losses each year in the U.S.
D1 = Moderate conditions are characterized by some damage to
crops and pastures, with high fire risk and stream/reservoir
levels that are usually below normal. Water shortages start to
develop and in some areas voluntary water use restrictions may be
requested.
D2 = Severe drought conditions are characterized by crop or
pasture losses. Fire risk is very high with some water shortages.
If water use restrictions are needed they would typically be
voluntary or locally mandated. D2 drought is defined by 1 in
10 year drought.
D3 = Extreme drought conditions are characterized by major crop
and pasture losses along with extreme fire danger and widespread
water shortages or restrictions.
D4 = Exceptional drought conditions are characterized by
exceptional and widespread crop and pasture losses. Fire risk and
shortages of water in streams and reservoirs become exceptional
and water emergencies are generally issued.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
This product will be updated the last week of May or sooner if
necessary in response to significant changes in conditions.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
Additional information on current drought conditions may be found
at the following web addresses:

US Drought Monitor:
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu

US Drought Information System:
http://www.drought.gov

NOAA Drought Page:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

U.S. Drought Monitor...www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu

NWS Precipitation analysis page...www.water.weather.gov/precip

Climate Prediction Center...www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Reservoir levels...www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...

National Weather Service:
http://water.weather.gov

US Geological Survey:
http://water.usgs.gov

US Army Corps of Engineers:
http://www.usace.army.mil

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
The Drought Monitor is a multi-agency effort involving the
National Weather Service and National Centers for Environmental
Information, the USDA, state and regional center climatologists
and the National Drought Mitigation Center. Information for this
statement has been gathered from NWS and FAA observation sites,
state cooperative extension services, the USDA, USACE and USGS.

CONTACT INFORMATION...
If you have questions or comments about this Drought Information
Statement, please contact:

National Weather Service
7955 Airport Rd
Santa Teresa NM 88008
Phone...575-589-4088
www.weather.gov/epz

$$

Hefner
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
