Text Products for DGT Issued by FGF

Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Versions: 1 2 3
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AXUS73 KFGF 302332 RRA
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MNC007-027-029-051-069-077-087-089-107-113-119-125-135-167-NDC003-
005-017-019-027-035-039-063-067-071-073-077-081-091-095-097-099-
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Drought Information Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
615 PM CDT Sat Sep 30 2021

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWEST THROUGH WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

SYNOPSIS...

Recent and significant rains continue to have beneficial impacts on
the otherwise widespread drought conditions. However, the prospects
for additional widespread wetting to soaking rains through the next
7 days are fairly low especially in the more drought affected areas.
At this time drought conditions are still prevalent across every
county within this Northern Plains sub-area, and are expected to
persist at some level through the next several months. The possible
exception is in the far southern Red River Basin, where soil moisture
levels have recovered to very near long term normals.

Rainfall for the two week period ending at 7am this morning,
September 30th, had over 80 percent of the area receiving from one
quarter inch to one half inch of rain, and about 20 percent of the
area, from east central ND into northcentral MN having received an
inch or more of rain. Normal rainfall for the last two weeks of
September ranges from 0.60 to 1.00 inches across eastern ND, and
from 0.90 to 1.30 inches across western MN. Far northwestern MN and
most of west-central MN were more that one half inch below normal
for precipitation during the past two weeks. Temperatures during
this same period have ranged from 4ranged from 5 to 10 degrees above
long term normals.

For the current growing season, back though mid April, most of the
area has received from 50 to 75 percent of normal precipitation,
with portions of northeast ND, mainly the northern half of the
Devils Lake Basin, and far southeastern ND, having received 75
percent or more of their normal rainfall. In eastern ND, rainfall
deficits were typically higher early in the growing season and have
seen increased rainfall amounts late in the season. In northwest
through west central MN, rainfall deficits were typically lower
early in the growing season, then rose dramatically through the mid
to late growing season.

In corresponding fashion, the drought was generally most severe
across northeast and east central ND from late spring through early
summer, with some slow recovery starting in late summer. The
category of Extreme Drought (D3) appeared and spread across
northeast ND from late March through late April, with a small area
of Exceptional Drought (D4) first making its appearance there in
late May. More widespread D3 coverage developed across most of
eastern ND, and to its greatest extent, in mid August.

In contrast, the category of Extreme Drought (D3) made its first
appearance in Minnesota near the Red Lakes area in mid July. On
August 10th, the category of Exceptional Drought (D4) was introduced
into Minnesota for the first time ever in the Drought Monitor`s 22
year history, and over a broad swath of northwest through
northcentral MN from southwest Polk County into northern Koochiching
County.

Over the past 44 days, since August 17th, drought conditions over
much of the area have shown some slight improvements, typically
around one category. Rainfall amounts through this recent period
have generally been near to above long term normals, for the first
time in nearly a year.

Drought conditions which initially developed late last summer and
fall, and which persisted throughout an abnormally dry winter
season, continued to expand and/or intensify during what has to date
been an abnormally dry and warm spring through summer season. For
most of the Red River Basin in eastern North Dakota and northwest
through west-central MN this has been a top 5 driest 11 month
period, Sep-Jul, on records going back to 1885. For Marshall, Polk,
Pennington, Red Lake, Norman, Mahnomen, and Clearwater Counties of
northwest MN and for most continues in east-central and far
northeast ND, including Grand Forks County, this has been the driest
11 month period, September though July, in that 126 year record.

The past 44 days has seen some recovery, with recent rainfall
amounts at near to above normal levels. As of September 21st, all
areas of Exceptional (D4) Drought were removed from eastern ND and
from northern Minnesota.

According to the Sep 28th release of the U.S. Drought Monitor...
Extreme Drought (D3) conditions persist over portions of northwest
MN from eastern Norman County, through portions of Mahnomen, eastern
Polk, far eastern Red Lake, northern Clearwater, and most all of
Beltrami Counties stern Polk. An addition band of D3 persists across
Kittson, Roseau and northern Lake of the Woods County. Else, the
remainder of northwest MN and portions of west-central MN north and
east of an Ashby to Phelps Mill to Wolverton line has improved to
the Severe Drought (D2) category. The remainder of west-central MN
is mainly in Moderate Drought (D1).

In eastern ND, the area north and west of a Drayton to Dahlen to
McHenry line remains in Extreme Drought (D3) conditions, except for
a small strip from Langdon, through Cando, to York. Else, the
remainder of eastern ND north of an Walcott to Lisbon to Litchville
line has improved to the Severe Drought (D2) category. The remainder
of far southern ND still ranges from Moderate Drought (D1), through
abnormally Dry (D0), to a small area where drought conditions have
been entirely removed, near Fairmount ND.

Please note, that even with the absence of or the lessening of
drought conditions, many of the drought impacts which have
accumulated through the past several months may still be evident.
Long term water storage, forests, forage lands, and soil moisture
levels take time to recharge.

To see county specific drought information in graphical form, visit
(https://)
droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/current/current_wfofgf_trd.png


SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

State and local actions. State and local wildland fire monitoring
agencies continue to see a heightened fire danger across North
Dakota and northern Minnesota. State agricultural agencies have made
a variety of programs available to support enhanced hay cutting and
transportation activities. Agencies have also conducted testing of
water in stock ponds and wells across portions of the area.

Wildfire threat. The overall wildfire threat has decreased slightly
due to recent cooler temperatures and increased rainfall. However
the continually increased precipitation deficit, late summer and
early autumn heat, and otherwise persistent dry conditions should
contribute to an above normal wildfire risk throughout the autumn
months as parched grasses, crops, and brush remain susceptible to
firestarts - until widespread snowcover takes hold.

Agricultural Impacts. Grasslands have seen some recovery and even
some late season hay cutting and baling has been noted across
eastern ND and western MN. Small grain harvest is largely complete,
with corn, soybean, and other row crop harvest now well underway.
Soil moisture ranking, has seen only slight improvement since early
September, with soil moisture anomalies ranging from near normal in
the far southern Red River Basin, south of Wahpeton-Breckenridge, to
from 50 to 100 mm (2 to 4 inches) below long term normals across
northwest into northcentral MN. In eastcentral to northeast ND,
anomalies ranged from 25 to 75 mm (1 to 3 inches) below long term
normals.

River and Streamflow Impacts. Streamflows across eastern ND remain
at from 20 to 60 percent of long term normals for this time of year.
Most streamflows in northwest Minnesota ranged from 15 to 50 percent
of normal, long term flows for this time of year.


CLIMATE SUMMARY...

A long term precipitation deficit continues across the region.
From September 1, 2020, through September 30th, 2021, most all of
northwest MN and eastern ND has received from 50 to 75 percent of
the normal amount of precipitation either as rainfall or snow water,
ranging from 4 to 14 inches below normal total precipitation. A
large portion of east central ND through northwest MN has seen
roughly half the normal precipitation for the past year.

Though a winter-time snow drought is generally low impact due to
otherwise frozen landscape, once spring thaw occurs the underlying
dry soils (fall drought), lack of snowmelt (winter drought) and/or
lack of accompanying early spring rains can lead to a more rapid
onset of worsening overall drought conditions, as we have been
experiencing.

And throughout the ensuing summer, the continued dry conditions
decreases daytime cloudcover, increases daytime sunshine and daytime
high temperatures, above long term normals, leading to increasing
evaporative demand and resultant cross stress.

Recent rainfall has only begun to ameliorate some of these longer
term impacts.


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

From October 1st through October 7th... expect above normal
temperatures and near to below normal precipitation. High
temperatures over the next seven days will range from the middle 60s
through the middle 70s, low temperatures will range through the 40s.
Areas of light rain are expected tonight through Friday night from
southeastern ND into northwest through west-central MN.

The 8 to 14 Day Forecast for the period from October 8th through the
14th (issued September 30th) calls for above normal temperatures and
near to slightly above normal precipitation across our Northern
Plains region.

The 30 Day Outlook for October (updated on September 30th) calls for
an increased risk for above normal temperatures and near to above
normal precipitation. The 90 Day Outlook for October through
December (issued September 30th) indicates a trend towards near
normal temperatures and precipitation over the late fall period.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

Warmer than normal temperatures with no commensurate increase in
precipitation from October through December could continue to hold
streamflows in lower to middle quartile levels into freeze-up.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... This product will be updated on around October
22nd, or as necessary in response to significant changes in
conditions.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
Additional information on current drought conditions may be found
at the following web addresses...

US Drought Monitor...http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html
NOAA Drought Page...http://www.drought.noaa.gov
Climate Prediction Center (CPC)...http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Midwest Regional Climate Center...http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu
High Plains Regional Climate Center...http://www.hprcc.unl.edu
Minnesota State Climatologist...http://climate.umn.edu
ND State Climatologist...https://www.ndsu.edu/ndsco

ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...
National Weather Service...http://water.weather.gov
US Geological Survey...http://water.usgs.gov
US Army Corps of Engineers...http://www.usace.army.mil

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
The drought monitor is a multi-agency effort involving NOAAs
National Weather Service and National Climatic Data Center, the
USDA, state and regional center climatologists and the National
Drought Mitigation Center. Information for this statement has
been gathered from NWS and FAA observation sites, state
cooperative extension services, the USDA, USACE and USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
If you have questions or comments about this Drought Information
Statement...please contact...

National Weather Service
4797 Technology Circle
Grand Forks ND 58203
Phone:   701-772-0720 x726
E-Mail:  gregory.gust@noaa.gov

$$

Gust
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
