National Weather Service Text Product Display

Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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Drought Information Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
519 PM CDT Thu May 20 2021

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND FAR
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

SYNOPSIS...

Areas of wetting to soaking rains have just recently occurred and
additional widespread wetting to soaking rainfall is expected
throughout the remainder of this week and into early next week.

However, Abnormally Dry to Extreme Drought conditions are still
affecting significant portions of the area with impacts that are
likely to persist until longer term and more consistent rainfall
patterns develop from late spring into the summer months.

Current drought conditions which initially developed late last
summer and fall, and which persisted throughout an abnormally dry
winter season, have continued to intensify during what has to date
been an abnormally dry and warm spring season. For most of the Red
River Basin north of Fargo-Moorhead this has been the driest 8 month
period, Sep-Apr, on records going back to 1885.

There has been no significant change to the overall drought
conditions in eastern ND and northwest MN over that past two weeks.

According to the May 20th release of the U.S. Drought Monitor...
extreme drought (D3) conditions persist across portions of northeast
North Dakota including Towner, Benson, Ramsey, Cavalier, Eddy,
western Pembina, western Walsh, northwest Grand Forks, northwest
Griggs, and far western Barnes Counties; severe drought (D2)
conditions extend from far northwest Minnesota into and across the
remainder of northeast and east-central ND; moderate drought (D1)
conditions also exist over portions of northwest MN and eastern ND
which are along and west of a Roosevelt to Karlstad to Fertile to
Borup to Oxbow MN to Walcott to Brampton ND line.

Otherwise areas of near normal to abnormally dry (D0) conditions
exist across the remainder of northwest and west central MN and
far southeast ND.

To see county specific drought information in graphical form,
visit (https://)
 droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/current/current_wfofgf_trd.png

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

State and local actions. State and local wildland fire monitoring
agencies continue to monitor for increased fire danger.

Wildfire threat. Given the early loss of snowcover and underlying
dry fuel conditions an early, heightened, and now protracted
wildfire season has occurred across most of the above described
area. Green-up has been from one to two weeks behind schedule while
overall dry conditions have keep short to mid-range fuels much drier
than normal. Northwest MN and the central Red River corridor into
southeastern ND have shown moderate green-up to date, while
northeastern ND persists with more widespread dry fuels. And
depending on pending weekend rainfall, the spring wildfire season
could extend into mid June or beyond in this area.

Agricultural Impacts. Grassland green-up is fairly widespread while
shrubbery and tree budding in most advanced in the far southern Red
River Valley and slowest in the north. Tree leaf-out appears to be
lagging long term normals by from one to two weeks. Topsoil moisture
has shown some improvement with recent rainfall along and south of a
Lancaster-Grafton-Tolna-Medina line, however deep soil moisture
remains depleted most everywhere. Soil moistures across northeast
North Dakota are most severely depleted.

River and Streamflow Impacts. Recent widespread soaking rainfall has
streams and rivers through eastcentral and southeastern ND and much
of northwestern MN flowing near their long term normals for the
period. Streams and rivers across far northeastern ND and much of
the Devils Lake Basin are flowing at below normal levels for the
period. With depleted deep soil moisture levels, little to no
snowmelt runoff, and below normal early spring rainfall, especially
in northeast ND, longer term streams flows may continue to be
impacted.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

A long term precipitation deficit continues across the region.
From September 1, 2020, through May 18th, 2021, most of northwest
Minnesota and all of eastern North Dakota has received less than
half the normal amount of precipitation either as rainfall or snow
water, ranging from 3 to 7 inches below normal total precipitation.
For portions of eastern North Dakota north and west from Hillsboro
the 8 month period Sep-Apr was either the first or second driest
in 126 years of record.

Though a winter-time snow drought is generally low impact due to
otherwise frozen landscape, once spring thaw occurs the underlying
dry soils (fall drought), lack of snowmelt (winter drought) and/or
lack of accompanying early spring rains can lead to a more rapid
onset of worsening overall drought conditions, as we have been
experiencing.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

From May 21th through May 27th... Near to above normal temperatures
and above normal precipitation are expected through the late week
and weekend periods, with temperatures trending near to below normal
for much of next week. Wettest and coolest conditions are expected
over the currently parched Devils Lake Basin. Widespread rainfall of
from one half inch to in excess on an inch is expected along and
north of the Highway 200 corridor, while somewhat lesser overall
amounts are expected south.

The 8 to 14 Day Forecast for the period from May 28th through June
3rd (issued May 20th) calls for near to somewhat below normal
temperatures and near to somewhat above normal precipitation for the
area.

The 30 day and 90 Day Outlooks (issued on May 20th) calls for an
increased risk of above normal temperatures for June through August
with equal chances for below, above, and near normal precipitation.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

Warmer than normal temperatures with no commensurate increase in
precipitation from June through August could exacerbate the current
drought conditions, and further diminish streamflows into lower
quartile flows.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... This product will be updated on around June
4th, or as necessary in response to significant changes in
conditions.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
Additional information on current drought conditions may be found
at the following web addresses...

US Drought Monitor...http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html
NOAA Drought Page...http://www.drought.noaa.gov
Climate Prediction Center (CPC)...http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Midwest Regional Climate Center...http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu
High Plains Regional Climate Center...http://www.hprcc.unl.edu
Minnesota State Climatologist...http://climate.umn.edu
ND State Climatologist...https://www.ndsu.edu/ndsco

ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...
National Weather Service...http://water.weather.gov
US Geological Survey...http://water.usgs.gov
US Army Corps of Engineers...http://www.usace.army.mil

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
The drought monitor is a multi-agency effort involving NOAAs
National Weather Service and National Climatic Data Center, the
USDA, state and regional center climatologists and the National
Drought Mitigation Center. Information for this statement has
been gathered from NWS and FAA observation sites, state
cooperative extension services, the USDA, USACE and USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
If you have questions or comments about this Drought Information
Statement...please contact...

National Weather Service
4797 Technology Circle
Grand Forks ND 58203
Phone:   701-772-0720 x726
E-Mail:  gregory.gust@noaa.gov

$$
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
