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Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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Drought Information Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1100 PM MST Sun Aug 22 2021

...Very Wet Monsoon Brings Drought Relief to Much of Northern
Arizona...

Synopsis...

Northern Arizona was in Extreme (D3) to Exceptional (D4) drought as
we entered June 2021 due to a nearly absent Monsoon season in 2020
followed by a poor fall and winter 2020-21. Beginning at the end of
June, a much wetter than normal southwest Monsoon has provided
beneficial rainfall for most areas, especially along the Mogollon
Rim south into Yavapai and Gila County. In the latest US Drought
Monitor issued August 17th, Exceptional Drought (D4 - the highest
drought category) is now confined to a small portion of northern
Coconino and Navajo counties near Page, while Extreme Drought covers
the remainder of northern Coconino County, Navajo, and Apache
Counties. Due to the heavy rains of the past 7 weeks, drought
category was improved to (D1) Moderate Drought for much of Yavapai
and Gila counties up to the Mogollon Rim country and White
Mountains. A portion of Coconino County including the area from just
west of Flagstaff to Williams was removed from drought and placed in
the Abnormally Dry (D0) category.

Summary of Impacts...

Rangeland and forage conditions were in poor or very poor in most
areas in June, with a very significant water shortage for ranchers
across northern Arizona. Many ranchers were reporting no water in
stock tanks and all water needing to be hauled in. Hauling of water
was necessary for wildlife for many months. Drought stress has
caused significant amounts of Juniper tree die off in many mid-range
elevation areas of the Prescott and Kaibab National Forests, as well
as across ranch land in Coconino County. Water shortages have also
been reported on Navajo Nation. Since late June, these conditions
have improved dramatically with stock ponds and small lakes
refilling in many areas, and much improved rangeland and forage
conditions.

Fuel conditions for wildfires were extremely dry through late June,
resulting in numerous large wildfires. The threat of damaging
wildfires was one of the most significant impacts of the current
drought. Since late June, fuel conditions have improved greatly and
fire restrictions have been lifted as fire danger diminished.

Climate Summary...

Most locations in northern Arizona have seen some significant
improvement in Water Year precipitation vs normal since late June.

             Water Year Precipitation Summary
           October 1 2020 through August 22 2021

               Precip      Normal     Percent
                                      of Normal

Flagstaff      19.05"       17.87"     107%
Winslow         3.28"        5.30"      62%
Prescott       15.85"       14.08"     116%
Payson         18.37"       17.56"     105%
Show Low       15.55"       13.47"     101%
Page            2.80"        5.25"      53%
St. Johns       8.45"        7.47"     113%


Precipitation/Temperature Outlook...

The outlook for September through November from the NWS Climate
Prediction Center calls for a strong tilt in the odds toward
above normal temperatures for northern Arizona with below normal
rainfall moderately favored. These values are produced by the NWS
Climate Prediction Center and can be accessed from their website
listed below.

                               Temperature        Precipitation
                               Probability         Probability
                             Above/Near/Below    Above/Near/Below
                                  Normal              Normal
Sep-Oct-Nov 2021.............   57 / 33 / 10       21 / 33 / 46


Hydrologic Summary and Outlook...

Spring snowpack runoff and streamflow was much below normal in 2021.
The most extreme impacts were to smaller tanks and catchments
intended for use by livestock or wildlife which were mostly dried up
in mid June. Monsoon rains since late June have recharged many stock
ponds and also even reservoirs in Yavapai County and the White Mountains
region. Streamflow values have been above median for much of the past
6 weeks, especially along and south of the Mogollon Rim.

Next Issuance Date...

Drought Information Statements from this office are normally issued
on the third Thursday of each month in which extreme or exceptional
(D3-D4) drought conditions exist in any part of northern Arizona.
The next statement will be issued on or around September 16, 2021.
&&

Related Websites:

Additional information is available at the following locations:

NWS Forecast Office Flagstaff: weather.gov/Flagstaff
National Integrated Drought Information System: drought.gov
US Drought Monitor: droughtmonitor.unl.edu
NWS Climate Prediction Center: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Arizona State Climate Office: azclimate.asu.edu
Arizona Dept of Water Resources: new.azwater.gov/drought
Western Region Climate Center: wrcc.dri.edu
US Geological Survey: water.usgs.gov

Acknowledgments...

Information included in this statement was compiled from a multitude
of federal, state, and local agencies.

Questions or comments...

National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
PO Box 16057
Bellemont, AZ 86015
(928) 556-9161
w-fgz.webmaster@noaa.gov
$$
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
