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Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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Drought Information Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
300 PM MST Sat May 22 2021

...Year-Long Drought Persists Across Northern Arizona...

Synopsis...

One of the warmest and driest late-spring through mid-winter periods
on record occurred from May 2020 to mid January 2021. The normally
wet monsoon season was nearly absent in 2020. This resulted in
intense drought conditions across northern and central Arizona.
However, a series of Pacific storm systems from late January through
March brought beneficial rain and snow to portions of northern
Arizona, especially from Flagstaff to the White Mountains and
northern Gila County, improving drought conditions slightly. April
through the first 3 weeks of May has seen a return to below normal
precipitation. In the latest US Drought Monitor issued May 20th,
Exceptional Drought (D4 - the highest drought category) continues
across northern Coconino County and most of Navajo and Apache
counties. Extreme Drought (D3) continues over most of Yavapai and
northern Gila Counties. A small area of Severe Drought (D2) persists
from Williams to Flagstaff to Sedona where the more beneficial late-
winter precipitation fell. At the beginning of June 2020, the
majority of these areas were classified as being drought-free, so
this was a rapid development of drought. The outlooks through the
summer favor warmer than normal conditions. The outlooks also call
for equal chances of above, near, or below normal precipitation for
the monsoon season over Yavapai and Coconino counties, with a slight
leaning toward drier than normal conditions for Navajo, Apache, and
northeastern Gila counties.

Summary of Impacts...

Rangeland and forage conditions remain poor or very poor in most
areas. There is a very significant water shortage for ranchers
across northern Arizona, with many ranchers reporting no water in
stock tanks and all water needing to be hauled in. Hauling of water
has been necessary for wildlife for many months. Drought stress is
now causing significant amounts of Juniper tree die off in many mid-
range elevation areas of the Prescott and Kaibab National Forests,
as well as across ranch land in Coconino County.

Fuel conditions for wildfires are drier than normal for this time of
year for all of northern Arizona. The latest Significant Wildland
Fire Potential issued the the National Interagency Fire Center
(NIFC) calls for above normal fire risk for all of Arizona during
the remainder of May and June. By July, normal fire risk is forecast
as the monsoon season typically arrives, bringing with it higher
humidity and rainfall. The threat of damaging wildfires continues to
be one of the most significant impacts of the current drought.

Climate Summary...

The past year has been exceptionally dry across northern Arizona, with
temperatures also above normal for much of this period. This is the
driest such period in recorded history for many locations.

  Precipitation Summary for June 2020 through May 2021
               (Jun 1, 2020 - May 21, 2021)

               Precip      Normal     Percent     Rank
                                      of Normal   Driest

Flagstaff      11.26"       20.29"      55%        2nd
Winslow         1.70"        6.43"      26%        1st
Prescott        7.39"       16.33"      45%        1st
Payson         10.39"       19.68"      53%        2nd
Show Low        7.26"       15.49"      47%        1st
Page            1.73"        6.00"      29%        1st
St. Johns       3.99"        8.98"      44%        1st


Precipitation/Temperature Outlook...

The precipitation outlook for June from the NWS Climate Prediction
Center calls for a strong tilt in the odds toward above normal
temperatures for northern Arizona with equal chances of
above/below/near normal precipitation. For the monsoon season of
July through September, outlooks still indicate warmer than normal
conditions are favored. There is a slight tilt in the odds toward
drier than normal conditions over Navajo and Apache counties, and equal
chances of each category for Yavapai, Coconino, and most of Gila
counties. The values below represent approximate probabilities of
above, near, and below normal temperature and precipitation for
northern Arizona for June, and for the period July through September
(Monsoon season). These values are produced by the NWS Climate
Prediction Center and can be accessed from their website listed
below.

                               Temperature        Precipitation
                               Probability         Probability
                             Above/Near/Below    Above/Near/Below
                                  Normal              Normal
       June 2021.............   59 / 33 / 8        33 / 34 / 33
Jul-Aug-Sep 2021.............   60 / 33 / 7        33 / 33 / 34


Hydrologic Summary and Outlook...

With above normal precipitation for the fall and winter of 2019-
2020, streamflow and reservoir recharge were beneficial. Streamflow
was much below normal during the summer and fall of 2020 through mid
winter of 2021. The most extreme impacts have been to smaller tanks
and catchments intended for use by livestock or wildlife. Snowpack
over the Mogollon Rim recovered to near normal in late January
through March, but has now melted. Snowpack was below below normal
for the other drainage basins in northern Arizona over the winter.
As a result, spring runoff was much below normal. Reservoirs are down
significantly since last year at this time. For example, Lyman Lake on
the Little Colorado River near St. Johns was at 23% capacity on May 1,
down from 58% a year ago.

Next Issuance Date...

Drought Information Statements from this office are normally issued
on the third Thursday of each month in which extreme or exceptional
(D3-D4) drought conditions exist in any part of northern Arizona.
The next statement will be issued on or around June 17, 2021.
&&

Related Websites:

Additional information is available at the following locations:

NWS Forecast Office Flagstaff: weather.gov/Flagstaff
National Integrated Drought Information System: drought.gov
US Drought Monitor: droughtmonitor.unl.edu
NWS Climate Prediction Center: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Arizona State Climate Office: azclimate.asu.edu
Arizona Dept of Water Resources: new.azwater.gov/drought
Western Region Climate Center: wrcc.dri.edu
US Geological Survey: water.usgs.gov

Acknowledgments...

Information included in this statement was compiled from a multitude
of federal, state, and local agencies.

Questions or comments...

National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
PO Box 16057
Bellemont, AZ 86015
(928) 556-9161
w-fgz.webmaster@noaa.gov
$$
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
