National Weather Service Text Product Display

Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
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CAC019-029-031-039-043-047-107-140407-

Drought Information Statement...correction
National Weather Service Hanford CA
907 PM PDT Thu May 13 2021

...EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA IN SOUTHEAST FRESNO COUNTY, THE
TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS, THE SEQUOIA NATIONAL FOREST IN
KERN COUNTY AND A PORTION OF THE KERN COUNTY DESERT...

...EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE REST
OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...

SYNOPSIS AND IMPACTS...

The California Drought Monitor, released May 13, 2021 showed an
area of exceptional drought(D4)that extended from the highest
elevations of the Sierra in southeastern Fresno County southward
through the Tulare County mountains. In Kern County, the area of
exceptional drought (D4) included the Sequoia National Forest
in addition to the Indian Wells Valley portion of the Kern County
desert. Much of the rest of the central California interior
remained in an extreme drought(D3) with the exception of the west
side of the San Joaquin Valley in Fresno County and southwestern
Merced County where severe drought(D2)conditions continued.

On May 10th, Governor Newsom added 39 counties to his Emergency
Drought Proclamation* for a total of 41 of the 58 counties in the
state of California. Counties that were added in the central
California interior included Mariposa County, Madera County,
Fresno County, Tulare County, Kings County and Kern County. The
governor`s emergency drought declaration would enable growers in
these counties who`ve been struggling with parched conditions to
apply for federal disaster funding. A statewide drought declaration
may result in widespread cutbacks in urban water use and lead to
stricter water conservation measures if the drought worsens and
continues for several more months or years.

A spokesperson for the California Cattlemen`s Association claimed
that ranchers are facing the most severe conditions in decades,
worse than the drought years from 2014 through 2016. Furthermore,
as the drought intensifies in the weeks and months ahead, cattle
ranchers may be forced to reduce the size of their herds due to
the reduction of feed and the increasing cost of hay.

Additionally, fuel moistures are already at mid Summer levels and
there are still thousands of acres of dead, beetle-infested trees
in the foothill regions of the Sierra that will provide fuel for
an extremely active and earlier than normal start to a potentially
severe wildfire season. In a report last week, the National Park
Service stated that areas of Sequoia National Park in the vicinity
of last year`s Castle Fire were already smoldering. The combination
of well above normal temperatures and parched fuels has elevated
the fire danger over the higher terrain during the past two weeks.
Consequently, small fires have already ignited in the mountains of
Tulare County and Kern County recently.

As of May 13th, a seasonal precipitation deficit of up to 25 inches
existed over the southern Sierra. Elsewhere over the central
California interior, there has been a precipitation shortage this
season of roughly 3 to 9 inches. The rain season runs from July
1st through June 30th. Snowfall has been well below normal in the
southern Sierra this past Winter. Its rapid depletion recently
has reduced the snowpack to only 3 percent of normal to date.
There was so little snow over the higher elevations of the Sierra
at the beginning of May that the annual May 1st snow survey that
is normally conducted by the Departement of Water Resources had to
be canceled.

Additionally, unseasonably low flows exist on rivers throughout the
central California interior this Spring. Some river channels that
are normally flowing swift and deep with snowmelt water at this time
of year are completely dry.  Although snowmelt brought a slight
increase in water levels in central California`s reservoirs during
the past week, water levels were still running well below normal.
As of May 13th, Isabella Dam had only 17 percent of its normal water
capacity. Pine Flat Dam had about 38 percent of its normal water
capacity and Friant Dam was holding 46 percent of its normal water
capacity.

The sparseness of available water for growers in the San Joaquin
Valley has fallen well short of irrigation needs. Consequently, the
pumping of ground water has occurred much earlier than usual. Water
allocations for growers on the west side of the San Joaquin Valley
have been reduced to only 20 percent of their normal allotment
through the Summer months. This forced valley growers to pump more
water up from wells to irrigate their farmland. Many west side
growers are concerned that as the wells dry up, there will be not
be enough water to sustain their crops which could greatly limit
or eliminate the Fall harvest and incur major financial loss. Valley
beekeepers are very concerned that the shortage of water and the
reduction of cover crops as a source of pollination and food will
hurt the honey bee colonies by late Summer.

From a historical climatological perspective, the 5 and 6 station
index of accumulated precipitation for the 2020-21 season in the
San Joaquin and Tulare Basin is the second driest and driest
on record, respectively, with a deficit of more than 21 inches. The
five month period between November and April was the second driest
on record for the Tulare Basin 6 station index and the 7th driest
on record for the Sierra 5 station index. Precipitation totals
this season in the Tulare Basin of the Sierra are currently 1.3
inches lower than the 1976-77 season in the Sierra which was the
driest on record.


CLIMATE SUMMARY...

As of May 13th, all climate stations at select airports in the San
Joaquin Valley recorded well below normal rainfall for the water
year which began October 1st, 2020. The table below shows total
rainfall, in inches, with respect to normal since October 1st and
the percentage of normal rainfall to date.

AIRPORT       ACTUAL RAINFALL      NORMAL RAINFALL    % OF NORMAL
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Merced             7.00                 11.37             62%
Fresno             6.59                 10.45             63%
Hanford            4.29                  7.81             55%
Bakersfield        2.77                  6.14             45%

Elsewhere across the central California interior, precipitation
has been well below normal so far this water year. Much of the
Kern County desert has received less than 25 percent of its normal
precipitation since October 1st.  Most of Tulare County, southeast
Fresno County, the Kern County mountains and the Sierra foothills
in Mariposa County and Madera County have had less than 50 percent
of their normal water year precipitation to date.


HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...

The Climate Prediction Center`s 60 to 90 day outlook shows a
forecast of neither above or below normal precipitation across
central California. Keeping in mind that the period from June
through September is typically dry throughout central California,
drought conditions will most likely worsen through the Summer
months.

The Climate Prediction Center forecasts above normal temperatures
in central California through at least September. The combination
of well above normal temperatures and dry fuels will likely raise
the fire danger in the months ahead, especially over the higher
terrain of central California. As hurricane season ramps up in
the tropical waters of the Pacific during mid to late summer,
northward influxes of tropical moisture into central California,
while somewhat helpful, could be more of a curse than a blessing
and lead to the development of mountain thunderstorms that bring
dry lightning and an increased threat of wildfire ignitions.

Meanwhile, increased irrigation water demands will persist within
the agriculture industry. Stricter water conservation measures may
also be imposed for residential and commercial businesses as
drought conditions worsen statewide.

NOAA`s Climate Prediction Center indicated that La Nina conditions
that existed last Winter into the early part of Spring have now
transitioned to a neutral ENSO and will likely remain so through
at least July. (ENSO stands for El Nino-Southern Oscillation)
Neutral ENSO conditions are characterized by neither above or
below normal sea temperatures in the equatorial regions of the
Pacific.

Drought Information Statements will be issued monthly or more
frequently, if necessary, from the National Weather Service in
Hanford, CA while any portion of the central California interior
is in Extreme Drought Classification (D3 status and higher) or
whenever any significant changes to drought status and/or impacts
occur within NWS Hanford`s County warning area.

&&

Related websites...
California Data Exchange Center:
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/
California-Nevada River Forecast Center:
http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/
Drought Monitor:
http://drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html
California Drought Page:
http://watersupplyconditions.water.ca.gov/
NOAA/NIDIS Nationwide Drought Impacts:
https:///www.drought.gov/impacts
Climate Prediction Center:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/index.php
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley:
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/hnx/
Western Region Climate Center:
http://www.wrcc.dri.edu
United States Department of Agriculture:
https://www.fsa.usda.gov

Related news articles:
https://www.capradio.org/articles/2021/04/17/5-things-you-need-to-
know-about-federal-drought-aid-in-california/
https://www.kcra.com/article/sierra-snow-survey-canceled-dry-weather-
water-supply-at-risk/36293736#
https://www.capitalpress.com/ag_sectors/orchards_nuts_vines/drought-
may-hurt-honey-bees-experts-say-cover-crops-could-help/article_85
edbff2-a862-11eb-919f-f7a58b6225f4.html
https://www.fresnobee.com/news/local/water-and-drought/article
250875579.html
https://www.fresnobee.com/fresnoland/article250842574.html
washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/04/22/drought-west-storm-california
https://kmph.com.newsletter/california-governor-declares-drought-
emergency-but-only-in-2-wine-country-counties
https://ucsdguardian.org/2021/05/02/drought-returning-to-california
https://abc30.com/fresno-County-drought-weather/10580709/
https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2021-04-26/as-drought-
deepens-california-growers-see-grim-futurequin
https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/2021-05-drought-declaration-
emergency-California-16166430.php



Acknowledgements...

Climate Prediction Center Drought Monitor
Western Region Climate Center
California-Nevada River Forecast Center
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford
California Department of Water Resources
National Park Service- Sequoia/Kings Canyon N.P.
The Fresno Bee (www.fresnobee.com)
The Sacramento Bee (www.sacramentobee.com)
Los Angeles Times (www.latimes.com)
The Washington Post (www.washingtonpost.com)
University of CA, San Diego Guardian (https://ucsdguardian.org)
KFSN-TV 30, Fresno, CA
KMPH-TV 26, Fresno, CA
SFGate News (www.sfgate.com)


*Press release of Emergency Proclamation can be found at
https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/4.21.21-
emergency-proclamation-1.pdf



Questions and comments: Please refer all questions to
w-hnx.webmaster@noaa.gov

$$
Durfee
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
