Text Products for DGT Issued by MTR

Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Versions: 1
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AXUS76 KMTR 130221
DGTMTR
CAZ006-505>513-516>518-528>530-131335-

Drought Information Statement
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
721 PM PDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...DROUGHT EMERGENCY CONTINUES ACROSS 50 OF THE 58 COUNTIES IN
CALIFORNIA WITH EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST BAYS AND EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...

SYNOPSIS...

The drought classification from the U.S. Drought Monitor issued
today depicts D4-Exceptional Drought conditions across all of
Sonoma, Napa, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda Counties, the
northeastern portion of Santa Clara County and the northeastern half
of San Francisco County, as well as the easternmost portions of San
Benito and Monterey Counties. D4-Exceptional Drought classification
indicates exceptional and widespread crop/pasture losses and
shortages of water in reservoirs, streams, and wells creating water
emergencies. D3-Extreme Drought conditions persist across the
southwestern half of San Francisco County, most of Santa Clara,
Monterey, and San Benito Counties, as well as, all of San Mateo, and
Santa Cruz Counties. D3-Extreme Drought classification indicates
major crop/pasture losses and widespread water shortages or
restrictions.

The drought classifications are due to below normal precipitation
for the 20/21 water year and compounding impacts from a second drier
than normal water year.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/currentmap/statedroughtmonitor.aspx?ca

On July 8, 2021, Governor Newsom expanded the drought emergency
declaration across nine additional California counties (Marin, San
Mateo, Santa Cruz, Santa Clara, Monterey, San Luis Obispo, Santa
Barbara, Inyo and Mono)and called on Californians to voluntarily
reduce water usage by 15 percent to protect water reserves. The
declaration now includes 50 of the 58 counties in California. The
emergency proclamation was issued in response to below normal
precipitation this year and a second consecutive year of dry
conditions. The declaration was expanded due to extreme drought
taking hold across the state, rapid depletion of the Sierra Nevada
snowpack, low streamflow, less inflow into reservoirs, and hence a
rapid deterioration of the states water supply. The declaration
paves the way to expeditiously mitigate the effects of drought
conditions to ensure the protection of health, safety, and the
environment. The drought emergency declaration includes the
following counties within our Hydrologic Service Area: Sonoma, Napa,
Marin, Alameda, Contra Costa, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Santa Cruz,
Monterey and San Benito counties.
https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/5.10.2021-Drought-
Proclamation.pdf

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

Reports received through the Condition Monitoring Observer Reports
CMOR) system included continued drought impacts to farming and
ranching operations, especially forage and feed issues, plant and
animal stress, and lack of water, as well as dry lawns, fire risk,
poor air quality, stress to people, and less food and water for
wildlife.  The lack of rain and dry soils have desiccated pastures,
with pasture and range conditions ranging from poor to very poor
across 45 percent of California. Water restrictions continued to
tighten leading to Gov. Newsom asking Californians to voluntarily
reduce water usage by 15%.  The heat, drought, and lack of food were
forcing more wildlife, notably bears and rattlesnakes, to encroach
upon urban areas in California.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...


Persistent anomalous heat and dryness has resulted in California
reporting the driest Rain Year (July 1st-June 30th) in the 127 year
record from 1895-2021 record. California also had the second driest
24-month Rain Year for this same period of record. Also of note in
the 127-year historical record for April-June, California reported
its second driest period. Regionwide, the West had the warmest and
second driest April-June, second driest and fourth warmest July-June
12-month period, and driest and fifth warmest July-June 24-month
period. The excessive and prolonged dryness has given the current
drought episode the largest percent area of extreme to exceptional
drought area on record in California. The April-June 2021 SPEI for
California was record low, far surpassing previous April-June SPEI
values in the 1895-2021 record. The April-June 2021 SPI for
California was also record low, but just barely, and it was not as
extreme as the SPEI value, which illustrates how the excessively hot
temperatures exacerbated the drought conditions. The June 27 USDA
reports indicated that topsoil moisture was short or very short (dry
or very dry) across 70 percent of California. Subsoil moisture was
short or very short across 75 percent of California. Consequently,
very low streamflow and reservoir inflow, continue to underscore the
rapid deterioration of the states water supply.

For the complete drought report:
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/drought/202106

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

CPC 3-month outlook for Aug-Sep-Oct, released July, 15, 2021 shows
equal chances of precipitation and above-normal temperatures across
the entire state. Equal chances means seasonal accumulated
precipitation amounts are expected to be similar to climatological
normals. Being that these are our normal dry months doesnt offer
any hope for beneficial precipitation.

The La Nia Watch issued by the Climate Prediction Center on July 8,
2021 remains in effect.  A Watch is issued when conditions are
favorable for the development of El Nio or La Nia conditions
within the next six months. ENSO-neutral conditions are currently in
place across the Pacific. There is a 60% chance that ENSO-neutral
conditions will continue through the remainder of the summer season
(Aug-Sept 2021) with La Nia conditions emerging during the fall
season (Aug-Sept-Oct 2021) and a 70% chance of La Nia conditions
lasting through the 2021-22 winter season (Nov-Dec-Jan).  A second
year La Nia event is possible, and the models have been fairly
consistent in La Nia emerging in the fall.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/
enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...The next product update will be issued as
needed in response to significant changes in conditions.

&&

RELATED WEBSITES (Updated links)
California Data Exchange Center:  http://cdec.water.ca.gov/

California Nevada River Forecast Center:
http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/droughtInfo.php

U.S. Drought Monitor:
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.
aspx?CA

National Integrated Drought Information System:
https://www.drought.gov/states/california

California Department of Water Resources Drought Page:
https://water.ca.gov/Water-Basics/Drought

Climate Prediction Center:  https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/monitoring_and_data/
drought.shtml

National Center for Environmental Information:
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/drought/

National Weather Service San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area:
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mtr/

National Weather Service California drought information resources:
https://www.weather.gov/safety/drought-ww
Association of California Water Agencies:  http://www.acwa.com

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
Climate Prediction Center
U.S. Drought Monitor
California Nevada River Forecast Center
National Weather Service San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area
California Department of Water Resources
California State Climatologist
U.S. Bureau of Reclamation
Cal Fire
Association of California Water Agencies
Local cities and counties

QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS...Please refer all questions to
w-mtr.webmaster@noaa.gov.

$$

CW-hydrologist

weather.gov/sanfrancisco
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
