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Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
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Drought Information Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
745 PM MST Sun Sep 19 2021

...Continued Monsoon Rainfall Results in Additional Drought
Improvement...

Synopsis...

Numerous rounds of widespread thunderstorms with heavy rainfall were
common in July and August resulting in many parts of Arizona
experiencing their wettest monsoon in decades. In fact, a few
locations have been flirting with all-time monsoon records, although
extended dry periods in September have tempered this possibility.
While most areas enjoyed this beneficial wet weather, some
communities along the Colorado River, northeast and north-central
Arizona, as well as parts SE California have missed out on the most
prolific storms. Nevertheless, rainfall amounts around the region
have been so abundant that excess runoff has resulted in local
reservoir inflow. The most serious short term drought impacts in
relation to ranching efforts, wildfire, and forest and wildlife
health have been significantly reduced this monsoon, though long
term regional drought impacting hydrologic stability still exists.

Extreme Drought now only covers a part of eastern Riverside County
in southeast California. Severe Drought now just covers a small part
far northwest La Paz County and the remainder of eastern Riverside
County. Moderate Drought covers Gila, Pinal, Maricopa, southern La
Paz and northern Yuma counties in Arizona and Imperial County in SE
California. Abnormally Dry conditions cover the southern half of
Yuma County and small parts of Maricopa and Gila counties. Severe,
Extreme, and Exceptional Drought now only covers around 40% of
Arizona as compared to 95% of the state at the beginning of the
monsoon.

Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures were near average through
much of the summer (ENSO neutral), however have already exhibited
widespread cooling suggestive of another La Nina winter. There is
approximately an 80% chance of La Nina returning this winter 2021-22
with odds favoring another cool season of below normal precipitation
throughout the region.


Summary of Impacts...

Only 4% of the Arizona range and pasture land rated as poor to very
poor in mid September versus 57% in August and 78% in July.
Widespread beneficial monsoon rainfall has helped alleviate the most
severe impacts for ranchers. In addition to forage growth, stock
ponds have refilled in many areas.

After a spring season of unusually dry fuels and expansive wildfire
coverage, persistent and copious amounts of monsoon moisture
abruptly ended the fire season in early summer. However because of
the amount of area burned and intensity of the fire activity,
flooding and debris flows from these burned areas were a tremendous
hazards for downstream communities over the monsoon.


Climate Summary...

With the widespread beneficial rainfall, many locations are catching
up, or have caught up on Water Year 2020-21 totals (since Oct 1st).
Totals and rankings are given below (Please note Normals values have
been updated to the new 1991-2020 benchmark). Some stations have a
limited historical record and rankings may not be as significant).

                  Since    Since    Dept     Percent     Rank
                  Oct 1    Oct 1    from    of Normal   Driest
                  2020     Normal   Normal

Phoenix AZ        5.50      7.03    -1.53       78       49th
Scottsdale AZ    10.01      8.47    +1.54      118        N/A
Globe AZ         15.85     15.22    +0.63      104        N/A
Yuma AZ           2.32      3.06    -0.74       76       84th
Blythe CA         1.26      3.45    -2.19       37       11th
Tucson AZ        13.85     10.23    +3.62      135      101st
Flagstaff AZ      20.02     19.93    +0.09      101       88th


Precipitation/Temperature Outlook...

The approximate probability values for above, below, or near normal
temperatures and precipitation for October and the 3-month period
October-December are given below and valid for Southeast California
and Southwest and South-central Arizona. These probabilities are
derived from outlooks issued by the Climate Prediction Center and
are accessible through their website listed below. The temperature
outlook corresponds to the average temperature during the period,
while the precipitation outlook comprises the total precipitation
over the period.

Temperatures have a better chance of being above normal during the
month of October with even higher odds during the October through
December time frame. Precipitation totals have a increased chance of
falling below average in both the month of October and the entire
October through December period.

                               Temperature        Precipitation
                               Probability         Probability
                             Above/Near/Below    Above/Near/Below
                                 Normal              Normal

October 2021................   45 / 33 / 22        23 / 33 / 44
Oct-Nov-Dec 2021............   52 / 33 / 15        24 / 33 / 43


Hydrologic Summary and Outlook...

Early monsoon rainfall helped replenish soil moisture across  much
of the Salt/Verde basin, then periods of heavier rain in August
actually resulted in reservoir inflow. It`s common to see minor
bumps in reservoir levels during the monsoon, but the notable
increases in reservoir storage this monsoon is not often
experienced. In fact, inflow to Salt/Verde reservoirs this monsoon
was the 2nd greatest on record.


                   09/18/2021     09/18/2020      09/18/2019
                    ---------      ---------       ---------
Roosevelt             69              85              66
Horse Mesa            93              93              92
Mormon Flat           94              95              96
Stewart Mtn           92              94              94
Total Salt            74              87              71

Horseshoe             26               1               7
Bartlett              67              91              83
 Total Verde          51              57              54

 Total System         71              83              69


Next Issuance Date...

The next issuance of this Drought Information Statement will occur
around October 25th.

&&

Related Websites:

Additional information is available at the following locations:

NWS Forecast Office Phoenix: weather.gov/Phoenix
National Integrated Drought Information System: drought.gov
US Drought Monitor: droughtmonitor.unl.edu
Climate Prediction Center: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Arizona State Climate Office: azclimate.asu.edu
Arizona Dept of Water Resources: new.azwater.gov/drought
Western Regional Climate Center: wrcc.dri.edu
US Geological Survey: water.usgs.gov

Acknowledgement:

Information included in this statement was compiled from various
federal, state, and local agencies.

Questions or Comments:

National Weather Service Phoenix
E-mail: w-psr.webmaster@noaa.gov
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
