Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
000
FXUS65 KABQ 031737 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1137 AM MDT Mon Oct 3 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 242 AM MDT Mon Oct 3 2022

Unsettled weather is expected to persist through the forecast
period with showers and thunderstorms across northern and central
New Mexico. Storms will be capable of locally heavy rainfall,
small hail, and flash flooding, especially on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Temperatures will be below seasonal averages.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 242 AM MDT Mon Oct 3 2022

With no concern for redundancy, the weather pattern continues to
feature a large cutoff 570dm upper low over central MT bringing an
area of instability, showers, and embedded thunderstorms through the
Four Corners region this morning. A band of showers has setup along
the continental divide from El Morro northward into Rio Arriba
County, slowly advancing eastward. Light pop-up showers are trying
to develop ahead of this band along and east of Mt. Taylor and the
San Mateo Mountains into the Jemez Mountains. These features look to
slowly advance eastward potentially bringing few light sprinkles
into the middle Rio Grande Valley this morning.

Thereafter, diurnally driven convection along the central and
western high terrain will initiate during the early afternoon
period. Above normal PWATs of ~0.75" will allow for scattered to
numerous cell coverage with cells steadily progressing over
surrounding valley locations late in the day and evening. While
there is a low potential for a cell to produce locally heavy
rainfall threatening flash flooding over the northern burn scars,
gusty winds and cloud-to-ground lightning will be the more common
hazard this afternoon and evening. Evening convection looks to
become mostly focused through west-central NM as an embedded upper
low currently over NV spins around the larger troughing pattern into
AZ. This will keep unstable conditions over west-central NM where
a few spots could see upwards of 1.00" or more rainfall by Tuesday
morning. This could lead to localized nuisance flooding issues.

Conditions look to clear out slowly tonight into Tuesday morning as
the aforementioned embedded upper low opens to a trough and then a
weak and deformed disturbance. Abundant low-level moisture and this
area of deformation aloft will allow for afternoon convection to
favor the central mountain chain Tuesday afternoon. Weak steering
flow will favor slow moving thunderstorms that will produce a higher
risk of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially over
recent burn scars during this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 242 AM MDT Mon Oct 3 2022

Unsettled weather will continue Tuesday night into Wednesday as the
slow-moving upper level trough continues its residence over the Land
of Enchantment. Slackened flow aloft in conjunction with abundant
mid and low level moisture will lead to locally heavy rainfall and
the potential for flash flooding, especially across recent burn
scars. A cutoff low is expected to break off from the parent trough,
the position of which will allow for drier air aloft to infiltrate
northern and central NM on Thursday. This will limit convective
potential across compared to previous days, especially across the
northern mts. Moisture makes its return Friday, however, as the low
continues to spin over the Sonoran Desert. Its tour will allow for
ample moisture to be funneled along its eastern periphery into NM,
letting the daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms continue
through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Mon Oct 3 2022

MVFR cigs were slow to develop at KGUP and will likely continue
through 20Z before improving back to VFR. Short-lived MVFR
conditions are likely in convection this afternoon and overnight
with fairly high probabilities across central/western NM. Longer
lived MVFR conditions are likely across central and western NM
early Tuesday morning due to saturation of the lower levels and
some partial clearing after convection diminishes. Patchy IFR
condtions are possible early Tuesday morning across central/western
NM as well, but forecast confidence too low to include in TAFs at
this time. Improvement Tuesday morning will be slow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 242 AM MDT Mon Oct 3 2022

No critical fire weather concerns through the forecast period.
Continued heightened chances for wetting precipitation from showers
and embedded isolated to scattered thunderstorms will favor the Four
Corners area this morning, spreading to the central and western high
terrain again this afternoon and evening. Continued above normal
moisture will keep daily rounds of afternoon storms going each day
this week, favoring the central mountain chain initially before
spreading to surrounding lower elevations. Storm motions will be
fairly slow Tuesday and beyond, increasing the threat of burn scar
flash flooding. Ventilation will be poor, with excellent recoveries
each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  67  49  73  48 /  40  30  20  10
Dulce...........................  63  39  68  39 /  60  30  40  40
Cuba............................  62  44  65  43 /  60  50  40  30
Gallup..........................  64  44  69  43 /  70  40  20  20
El Morro........................  62  43  64  42 /  80  60  40  30
Grants..........................  64  42  67  40 /  70  60  40  30
Quemado.........................  66  45  66  42 /  80  70  60  40
Magdalena.......................  67  47  65  47 /  50  60  50  50
Datil...........................  63  44  63  43 /  80  70  60  50
Reserve.........................  73  46  70  43 /  70  70  60  40
Glenwood........................  76  53  74  50 /  70  50  50  40
Chama...........................  57  37  61  37 /  70  40  60  40
Los Alamos......................  62  45  63  46 /  60  50  60  50
Pecos...........................  65  44  62  45 /  60  40  70  60
Cerro/Questa....................  61  35  62  32 /  70  30  70  40
Red River.......................  55  34  53  34 /  80  30  80  50
Angel Fire......................  56  30  55  31 /  70  40  80  60
Taos............................  62  42  64  40 /  60  30  70  40
Mora............................  63  40  58  40 /  50  40  80  60
Espanola........................  69  48  70  47 /  60  40  60  50
Santa Fe........................  64  45  63  47 /  50  50  70  50
Santa Fe Airport................  68  45  67  45 /  50  50  60  50
Albuquerque Foothills...........  74  51  70  53 /  50  60  40  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  75  52  73  52 /  50  50  30  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  77  53  74  51 /  50  50  30  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  75  52  73  53 /  50  50  30  40
Belen...........................  78  51  75  50 /  50  50  40  40
Bernalillo......................  77  52  74  51 /  50  50  30  40
Bosque Farms....................  77  52  75  50 /  50  50  30  40
Corrales........................  77  52  74  52 /  50  50  30  40
Los Lunas.......................  77  52  75  51 /  50  50  40  50
Placitas........................  72  50  70  51 /  50  50  40  50
Rio Rancho......................  75  52  73  52 /  40  50  30  40
Socorro.........................  81  52  75  51 /  30  60  40  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  64  46  63  48 /  50  60  60  50
Tijeras.........................  68  47  66  47 /  50  60  50  50
Edgewood........................  68  44  66  44 /  60  50  60  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  70  44  67  43 /  50  50  60  50
Clines Corners..................  66  44  63  43 /  60  40  70  60
Mountainair.....................  69  45  67  45 /  50  50  50  50
Gran Quivira....................  69  47  68  46 /  50  50  50  50
Carrizozo.......................  73  50  71  50 /  40  40  50  50
Ruidoso.........................  63  45  63  44 /  50  30  60  50
Capulin.........................  67  44  59  43 /  60  40  60  50
Raton...........................  70  45  64  42 /  60  40  70  50
Springer........................  72  46  67  44 /  50  30  70  50
Las Vegas.......................  67  43  63  42 /  50  30  70  60
Clayton.........................  78  51  67  50 /  20  20  60  50
Roy.............................  71  48  65  48 /  30  20  60  60
Conchas.........................  77  53  75  53 /  20  20  40  60
Santa Rosa......................  74  51  73  51 /  20  20  40  60
Tucumcari.......................  81  54  76  53 /   5  10  20  50
Clovis..........................  79  52  77  51 /   0   5  10  30
Portales........................  81  51  80  52 /   0   5  10  30
Fort Sumner.....................  79  52  78  53 /   5  10  20  50
Roswell.........................  82  55  82  56 /   5  10  20  30
Picacho.........................  74  49  74  50 /  30  10  30  40
Elk.............................  72  47  71  47 /  30  10  40  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...11


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.