Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 272116
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
116 PM AKDT Tue Sep 27 2022

.SYNOPSIS...A 982 low in Bristol Bay will affect the YK Delta on
Wed and the Seward Penn and Bering strait on Thursday. This will
bring rain and strong northeast winds of 25 to 40 mph to the
Bering strait Wed and Thursday. Another strong storm is forecast
to moves east across the Bering Sea on Friday then curve south
into Bristol Bay Saturday and Sunday. This is remnants of Tropical
storm Kulap. Impacts expected to be minimal due to offshore flow
from the Seward Penn down to the Yukon Delta coast. Mixed precip
is possible for the Interior over the weekend.

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels and Analysis...
At 500 hpa a deep longwave trough continues over the Eastern
Bering Sea and the West Coast of Alaska as a 529 dam low remains
in place near Nunivak Island. After a shortwave moves up across
the northern interior today, ridging will build over the Interior
Tuesday. Chinook flow will set up over the Interior Wednesday
through Friday. Troughing will shift to the east over the mainland
late Friday and into the weekend.

Central and Eastern Interior...A shortwave aloft will bring mostly
rain showers with a mix of snow expected in the valley level and
snow above 1500 feet this morning. Precip tapering off across the
Interior this afternoon. The low will continue to move north and
will push to the Eastern Arctic Coast tonight. Drier conditions
Tuesday afternoon through Thursday. Mixed precip is possible for
the Interior over the weekend.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Cloudy with some snow showers and
patchy fog from Utqiagvik east as weak onshore flow prevails
along the coast. Offshore flow west of Utqiagvik with some breaks
in the clouds. Inland some clearing in the plain and Eastern
Brooks Range as high pressure builds south into the area. Winds
mainly east at 10 to 25 mph along the coast with lighter winds
inland. High temperatures today and Wednesday in the low to mid
30s. Lows tonight in the mid to upper 20s.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A 982 low in Bristol Bay will affect the YK Delta on
Wed and the Seward Penn and Bering strait on Thursday. This will
bring rain and strong northeast winds of 25 to 40 mph to the
Bering strait and along the Yukon Delta coast Wed and Thursday. A
Special weather statement is out for elevated surf and minor
beach erosion in the Bering Strait and around St Lawrence Island.
Another strong storm is forecast to moves east across the Bering
Sea on Friday then curve south into Bristol Bay Saturday and
Sunday. This is remnants of Tropical storm Kulap. Impacts
expected to be minimal due to offshore flow from the Seward Penn
down to the Yukon Delta coast.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Northeast winds 25 to 40 mph will develop along the Bering Strait
and St Lawrence Island and along the Yukon Delta coast Wednesday
into Thursday. This will cause elevated surf and minor beach
erosion along north facing shores in the Bering Strait and St
Lawrence Island and portions of the Yukon Delta coast Wednesday
into Thursday.

HYDROLOGY...
No concerns at this time.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ226.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ201.
&&

$$


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