Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK

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FXAK67 PAJK 031342
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
542 AM AKDT Mon Oct 3 2022

.SHORT TERM.../through Monday night/...Overall, another quiet day
is in store for SE AK.

Main Takeaways:
-Morning fog is reported to 1 mile or less. Hoonah, Petersburg,
 Wrangell, and parts Prince of Wales Island has reported down to
 1/4 mile at times.

-Light to moderate rain is likely for the Yakutat area through
 this morning before moving eastward toward northern Lynn Canal
 and fading out as it shifts.

-Winds should remain on the lighter side through today and this
 evening. Late tonight, winds will begins to increase as the next
 low moves into the gulf.

A ridge of high pressure will still be over the panhandle through
today. This high pressure should keep skies at partly cloudy to
mostly clear for most of SE AK. Unseasonably warm air is aloft in
this pocket of high pressure. However, yesterday the warm air
didn`t make it to the surface. So temps, for the most part, topped
out in the 50s, which is only a few degrees above normal. This is
not the 5 to 10 degrees above normal that we were hoping for. So
temps were allowed to be cooled back, as models and MOS hinted at
yesterday and again today. So forecasted highs today are in the
lower 50s for the central and northern areas, while the south is
forecasted to reach the mid to upper 50s.

The next low moves into the gulf tonight. This will move the ridge
of high pressure north into Canada and bring increasing clouds
tonight and increasing wind speeds late tonight.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Friday/...Enjoy the continued
benign weather break while it lasts. A Partly to mostly cloudy
and dry Tuesday is in store with moderate chances for more
typical southeast Alaska light rain out ahead of a frontal system
Starting Tuesday evening and lasting through Wednesday night.
Rainfall totals should be light and relatively non-impactful. IVT
values remain low and flooding is not anticipated through the
period. A ridge of high pressure builds back into the region,
becoming the dominant synoptic weather feature with clouds
decreasing, chances for rain decreasing, and winds becoming
relatively light, once again, starting Thursday and lasting
through the end of the workweek.

Winds pick up to moderate Small Craft values(~30 kt), primarily
over the eastern Gulf waters, along with a tightened pressure
gradient from the aforementioned front as the it moves over the
eastern Gulf and skirts by the Panhandle Tuesday evening into
Wednesday night. The parent low will remain adrift over the
central Gulf while rapidly weakening and getting absorbed into the
flow by Thursday.

Temperatures will remain mild through the period with continued
potential for record breaking highs. This is primarily due to the
strong model forecast Warm Air Advection aloft at 850 mb through
the end of the period. Temperatures could make it as high as 70
degrees in portions of the southern Panhandle on the days that
receive the most solar radiative heating.

Forecast confidence is average for the long term forecast period
as operational weather forecast model agreement was moderate,
diverging toward the end of the period. WPC was mixed in with the
blend toward the last day. Ensemble member spread increased
appreciably for the late work week.

&&

.AVIATION...Getting LIFR visibility and ceilings for some of our
southern Panhandle airports this morning as fog again has
developed over those inner channels. Will keep conditions lowered
for those areas through 17Z then show a gradual lifting to VFR
through the late morning into the afternoon. We may get some more
fog for Petersburg late tonight, but mid-deck of clouds moving in
from the west today may limit widespread fog production tonight.
Otherwise, to the north rain and lowered visibility/ceilings in
Yakutat will gradually lift through mid afternoon.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ326.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM....JLC
AVIATION...JG

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