Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 031420
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1020 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into New England into midweek. A coastal low
lingers off the mid-Atlantic coast into mid week, bringing clouds,
cooler weather and rain chances. Much cooler weather this weekend
with the first frost of the season possible for portions of the
Piedmont.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1020 AM EDT Monday...

Lo pres swirling off the mid-Atlantic coast will continue to
push cloudy/chilly/rainy wx over the FA. The satl imagery this
morning does shows brighter wx for the Piedmont...even to areas
of the I 95 corridor N of RIC. The wrn portions of the FA will
remain on the fringe of the effects from the coastal lo pres.
Partly sunny-mostly cloudy those areas w/ very minimal PoP. To
the E...not so fortunate as the current conditions look to
linger through this afternoon. Another round of rain is expected
to push SW from NJ/DE this afternoon across the ern
shore...maybe to the coastal counties in VA. Winds remaining
gusty...highest at the coast. Wind advisory remains in places
over Hampton Roads and along the coast/beaches. Anomalously cool
w/ highs in the m-u50s along the coast...and 60-65F over the
(far) W Piedmont...and u40s-l50s in between. See climate section
for more information.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 430 AM EDT Monday...

Lows tonight in the mid 40s W to mid 50s SE.

The coastal low lingers off the Mid Atlantic coast into Wed, before
sliding offshore Wed-Thurs. Meanwhile, high pressure will remain
over New England. This will result in continued widespread cloud
cover, rain/drizzle, and anomalously cool high temps (Tues). Highest
rainfall totals will be NE over the Eastern Shore with lower totals
SW. Exact amounts remain uncertain, but expect mainly light
rain/drizzle with occasional rounds of moderate rain (mainly over
the Eastern Shore) over the next few days. Models continue to trend
slower with the low moving offshore and therefore kept at least
slight chance PoPs into Wed. Breezy N winds continue Tues with gusts
30-40 mph possible along the coast and 25-35 mph gusts inland. Winds
diminish Wed but it will still remain breezy, especially along the
coast. Given the setup with cloud cover in place and breezy/wind N
winds funneling in cool air, record cold highs will be possible Tues
in the lower to mid 50s inland and upper 50s to around 60F along the
coast and over the far W Piedmont (see climate section below).
Warmer Wed with highs in the lower to mid 60s. Lows Tues and Wed
nights in the mid 40s W to mid 50s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 430 AM EDT Monday...

Dry weather prevails through the extended. High pressure builds into
the area Thurs before a dry cold front crosses Fri. Behind the cold
front, strong high pressure builds into the Mississippi Valley and
eventually over the local area with much cooler temps coming into
the area by the weekend. Will need to monitor for the potential
first frost of the season for portions of the Piedmont Sat or Sun
nights (best chance now looks to be Sat night) with lows in the mid-
upper 30s W to the upper 40s along the coast. Highs in the mid-upper
70s Thurs and Fri (possibly 80F Fri), lower 60s NW to mid 60s SE Sat
and Sun, and upper 60s to around 70F Mon. Lows in the upper 40s W to
mid 50s E Thurs night and lower 40s NW to lower 50s SE Fri
night.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 700 AM EDT Monday...

A mixture of MVFR/IFR CIGs will persist through the 12z taf
period as the mean cloud height will remain ~1000 ft. Seeing
scattered IFR CIGs of 500-900 ft but not at the taf sites
outside of RIC. Think RIC has the best shot of remaining IFR
for the next couple of hours as upstream obs and moisture
support locally lower CIGs. CIGs have been consistently higher
than guidance with mainly MVFR CIGs at most terminals. Think
this trend continues based on obs and therefore went with
prevailing MVFR CIGs for the rest of the terminals. Light
rain/drizzle continues through the 12z taf period with mainly
3-6 SM VIS. Winds remain breezy with N winds 18-25 kt with
gusts 25-35 kt (higher near the coast). Winds diminish some
tonight but remain gusty.

Rain chances and gusty N winds continue into Wed with MVFR/IFR
CIGs expected. Conditions slowly improve from W-E late Wed-Wed
night as a coastal low pulls away from the coast. VFR conditions
return Thu-Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 715 AM EDT Monday...

Early morning analysis indicates ~1010mb sfc low pressure slowly
deepening off the SE VA coast with strong (1030mb+) high
pressure from Michigan to southern Ontario. Anomalously cool
northerly flow over the relative warmth of the local waters
(water temperatures in the upper 60s/lower 70s), is allowing for
optimal mixing across the marine area. Winds gusts have trended
down over the past few hrs and are now mostly 35-45kt with an
occasional gust to ~50kt+ over the ocean and mouth of the Bay.
Maintaining Storm Warnings for the ocean from the VA-NC border
on north into early this aftn. Gale Warnings are in effect
across the remainder of the marine area (but will likely be
dropped later this morning/early aftn for the upper rivers).

Latest guidance shows a broad area of low pressure lingering
offshore of the SE VA/NE NC coast into tonight, then slowly
drifting N to become centered off the Delmarva coast Tue/Tue
night. Wind directions gradually turn more to the NW by Tue, but
a prolonged period of Gale force winds looks to persist over
the local waters so have extended the Gales into Tue evening for
the NC coastal waters and the Bay. Given the strong winds over
the waters have maintained Wind Advisories for land areas
adjacent to local waters through the daylight hours of Monday
with extensions looking increasingly likely into Tuesday. The
Wind Advisory also includes inland Worcester County.

Seas are now 10-15 ft over the coastal waters and may build as
high as 14-18 ft through this aftn/evening. Seas will take well
into the middle of next week to decrease below SCA thresholds.
High Surf Advisories remain in effect for all beaches later
this afternoon/tonight through Tuesday evening. Waves in the bay
will avg 4-6 ft N and 5-7 ft S, and up to 6-9 ft near the mouth
of the bay into Tuesday. A brief quiet period is expected late
Wed into Thu, with another cold front sweeping through the
region late Fri/Fri night likely bringing a period of SCA
conditions (northerly winds) Fri night into Sat before high
pressure slowly builds in from the W.

High rip current risk continues today and Tuesday, and very
likely into Wednesday as well.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 410 AM EDT Saturday...

     Considerable Long-Duration Coastal Flood Event Expected...

A tight pressure gradient will remain in place through Tuesday in
between strong high pressure from the Great Lakes to eastern
Canada and low pressure off the SE VA/NE NC coast. Tidal
departures are averaging +2.0 to +3.0 ft over the lower Bay and
the Ocean, while dropping off to near zero farther N up the Bay
(where the strong N winds have forced the higher water levels
southward). The winds are due northerly for most areas, except
for more of a NNE direction along the Ocean side of the eastern
shore. This may explain current water levels being about 0.5 ft
lower than expected for the current high tide cycle. Have
lowered peak water levels for the next high tide cycle later
this aftn based on these trends (ETSS guidance has come down as
well). The 00Z P-ETSS guidance has dropped 1.5 to nearly 2 ft
from what the 00Z run/Sunday had been forecasting for the
upcoming aftn high tide. Even with these adjustments, this is
still a significant event and for the time being we are still
going with MAJOR flooding for most of the lower Bay/James/ and
ocean sites from Chincoteague on south to Corolla NC.

Although tides will slowly start to lower Tuesday, they will
continue to stay high with some spots remaining at Moderate
through Tuesday (and at least MINOR into Wed/Wed night). Some
locations in Hampton Roads/VA Beach and NE NC still are likely
to see extensive flooding and the highest water levels in 5-10
years.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Anomalously cool daytime highs are expected Monday and
Tuesday given CAD from a coastal low offshore and high pressure
to the north. Below are the record low maximum temperatures for
both days:

Mon (10-03):
Richmond: 54 (1974)
Norfolk: 55 (1974)
Salisbury: 48 (1974)
Elizabeth City: 55 (1974)

Tues (10-04):
Richmond: 57 (1996)
Norfolk: 58 (1974)
Salisbury: 56 (2010)
Elizabeth City: 62 (1974)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Warning until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for MDZ024-025.
     Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ024-025.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for MDZ025.
NC...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ017-102.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ102.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ102.
VA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ095-098>100-
     523-525.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for VAZ098>100.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for VAZ078-085.
     Coastal Flood Warning until midnight EDT Tuesday night for
     VAZ084-086-089-090-093-095>100-523>525.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634-658.
     Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ635.
     Gale Warning until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ636-637.
     Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ638.
     Storm Warning until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650-652-654-
     656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...LKB/RHR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...


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