Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 041045
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
645 AM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonably cool temperatures continue today with scattered showers
mainly south and east of Albany. The cool conditions, clouds, and
showers will linger into Wednesday south and east of Albany, but
other locales will see milder temperatures and a clearing trend.
Thursday will be mostly sunny and seasonably mild. A strong cold
front will move through later Friday into Friday night, with showers
possible along it and cooler temperatures in its wake for the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 610 am, cutoff upper low remains centered in the vicinity
of Norfolk, VA, with plenty of mid and high clouds continuing
to plague areas to the north of the low including the local
forecast area. Meanwhile, high pressure centered along the St.
Lawrence Valley continues to funnel a cool and dry airmass at
lower levels southward. Thus far, the clouds are doing a good
job inhibiting radiational cooling in most areas, which has
allowed us to cancel the Frost Advisory early. We added a
mention of sprinkles this morning for the Capital District,
Mohawk Valley, Glens Falls area, southern VT, and the Berkshires
based on radar and obs. Also upped PoPs a bit over the Mid
Hudson Valley, eastern Catskills, and Litchfield County.

Today, the low-level reflection of the low will drift slowly
northward. This will allow some low- mid level frontogenesis to
spread into the region from the southeast. Also, the high to the
north will weaken a bit. These factors should result in showers
spreading into areas mainly southeast of Albany for the
remainder of the night into most of the day. The antecedent dry
low-levels should prevent precip from being too heavy or
sustained in any particular area, but these areas will likely be
dealing with on-and-off showers through the day. A bit more
filtered sunshine will be seen over areas northwest of Albany,
which should see the warmest high temps today approaching 60.
Most areas will remain in the mid/upper 50s. NBM high temp
guidance was too high for most areas for Monday`s highs, and
this bias is likely continuing for today, so the forecast
undercut the NBM highs by a few degrees. It will continue to be
a bit breezy for parts of the Mid-Hudson Valley and Litchfield
County, with gusts of 20-25 mph at times.

Conditions shouldn`t change much tonight with scattered showers
continuing south and east of Albany. Lows in the upper 30s to
upper 40s are expected, a bit milder than recent nights with the
waning influence of the cold high pressure to the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Wednesday into Wednesday night, the upper low that has been plaguing
the Mid-Atlantic for the last several days will finally begin to
move eastward, with shortwave ridging building in to the local area
from the west. Still some uncertainty with respect to how quickly
the clouds associated with the low move out. Right now, consensus
favors areas southeast of Albany having to contend with clouds and
scattered showers for much of the day, especially morning and early
afternoon. NBM highs were cut back a bit in these areas again.
Clearing should gradually occur from NW to SE later Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Highs Wednesday range from upper 50s southeast of
Albany to upper 60s northwest. With skies clearing Wednesday night,
a ridge building in at the surface, and dewpoints not dropping much,
patchy fog could occur in favored areas and was added to the
forecast. Lows mainly in the mid-40s expected.

Thursday, light return flow develops ahead of a trough approaching
from the west. Skies should be mainly sunny early with perhaps some
high clouds advancing in from the west late in the day. It should be
a seasonably mild day with highs ranging from the mid-60s to
mid-70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Thursday night will be mild with a few showers possible north/west
of Albany Thursday night associated with slight warm advection and a
weakening short wave in the SW flow aloft. A cold front will sweep
eastward across the region on Friday, brining isolated to scattered
showers. Greatest coverage of showers should be north/west of
Albany. Areas from the Hudson Valley eastward could warm into the
mid 60s to lower 70s prior to the frontal passage, while western
areas will be in cold advection much of the day.

In wake of the cold front Friday night, an anomalously cold mass
will rapidly build in with 850 and 925 mb temp anomalies of -1 to -2
STDEV. It will also turn blustery with a W-NW flow regime setting
up under the influence of an upper level trough. Some lake
effect/upslope showers will be possible across the western Mohawk
Valley and SW Adirondacks Friday night into Saturday, as lake-air
temp differences will will yield moderate lake induced instability.
Will limit PoPs to low chance for now until details become more
clear. Temps will be cold enough for some snowflakes to mix in
across the higher terrain. Elsewhere, it will be dry and chilly with
gusty W-NW winds on Saturday.

Below normal temperatures will continue through Sunday, although it
should be drier as the upper trough moves away and the flow regime
aloft becomes more neutral. Dry/tranquil weather expected on Monday,
as short wave ridging builds in. Temperatures should start to
moderate back to near normal levels.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...Plenty of mid level clouds in place
associated with a coastal low pressure system parked off the mid
Atlantic coast. This system is forecast to move slightly
northwestward today. This will allow for some bands of showers
to rotate around the periphery of the storm and move across KPOU
to around KPSF today. A few showers may make it to KALB this
afternoon into this evening (so will mention PROB30 there), but
KGFL should remain dry. Cigs will gradually lower through the
day, with MVFR levels expected to develop at KPOU around or
shortly after 12Z. Cigs should remain in VFR range at KALB/KGFL
this afternoon, with KPSF lowering to MVFR later in the
afternoon. Further lowering of cigs to IFR levels may occur at
KPOU after 06Z Wed.

Winds today will be north-northeast around 5-10 kt.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Thompson
NEAR TERM...Thompson
SHORT TERM...Thompson
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV


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