Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 272319
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
619 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

Hurricane Ian continues to move northward towards the Florida
Peninsula today and tomorrow. Meanwhile, high pressure continues
to linger over the Southern Plains and a trough axis digs across
the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes into the New England and the Mid-
Atlantic by tomorrow. Additionally, late tomorrow evening, the
next upper level trough will approach the Pacific Northwest.

A surface trough associated with a weak surface low near Beaver
County this morning has begun to bring north winds to the
northern half of the Panhandles and will to shift winds this
evening to the northeast as it pushes southward. Surface winds
will turn northeasterly overnight tonight and into tomorrow before
turning more east southeasterly by tomorrow afternoon.
Despite the weak trough and change in winds, temperatures are
still progged to warm into the 80s and lower 90s today. By
tomorrow, the east southeast winds will help to keep temperatures
a few degrees cooler across the area with highs in the lower 80s
across the north and mid to upper 80s across the south.

Later this afternoon, diurnal convection along the higher terrain
of New Mexico will develop. With a lack of overall moisture and
weak flow aloft, there is a low potential for any of these showers
and storms to get into the western Panhandles. However, a decaying
shower may creep into western Cimarron and Dallam Counties this
evening. In addition, a few higher res models want to try to
develop a shower or two along the weak convergence associated with
the surface trough this evening near Deaf Smith and Randall
Counties. Again the chances for this occurring remains low as the
environment is not suitable for sustaining convection across the
area with limited moisture. By tomorrow, a similar setup occurs,
but models try to bring a storm into Cimarron County with some
weak instability. Opted to add a 10 PoP across the far northwest
Panhandles tomorrow late afternoon and evening for a shower or
storm.

Rutt

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

The pattern Thursday remains similar to Wednesday with the next
upper low swinging into the Pacific Northwest with ridging over
the southern Plains and an exiting trough across the Mid-Atlantic
along with the tropical low over Florida. Heading into the weekend
the tropical low over Florida weakens and moves northward, while
the upper low in the Pacific Northwest transitions eastward into
the Rockies. Models by the tail of the weekend start to diverge in
solution regarding the track of this upper low across the central
CONUS. The GFS digs the low farther south and brings a cold front
through the Panhandles Monday with the chance for some
precipitation ahead of and with the system Saturday night into
Monday. On the other hand, the EC/Canadian take a slower
progression with a potential frontal passage and chance for
moisture later in the week. With the uncertainty in how the
tropical system will effect the pattern aloft and hwo the next
system will transition into the CONUS, the NBM was left for the
extended. Overall, the blend of models hints at the frontal
passage Monday with cooler temperatures possible for Tuesday. Much
of the extended remains dry as well, but again could see this
change with the forecast hinging on this next system coming into
the Pacific Northwest this weekend.

With the continued dry pattern, fuels are expected to continue to
become more susceptible to fires. With the development of a lee
low each day Thursday through Saturday, breezy south southwest
winds are to return to the Panhandles. With the lack of moisture
relative humidity values are also dropping into the mid to upper teens
over this time period for parts of the area. Any uptick in these
conditions, winds increasing or afternoon minimum relative
humidity values decreasing, could result in an increase in the
potential for elevated to even some spotty critical fire weather
conditions across portions of the Panhandles.

Rutt

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

VFR conditions will prevail with this TAF issuance. Winds around
10 kts or less will mainly be out of the east overnight. Winds
will increase to around 10 to 15 kts during the daytime hours and
will be out of the east to southeast. Some high clouds are
possible over the terminals.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                55  85  56  88 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  52  81  51  90 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              50  82  51  88 /  10  10  10   0
Borger TX                  55  88  57  93 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              54  86  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  55  86  54  88 /  10   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               57  87  56  88 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 49  84  51  87 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  50  83  51  90 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                55  87  54  88 /  10   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                53  83  51  89 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   55  85  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                57  88  54  89 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              58  89  55  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...05


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