Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 222300

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
600 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2019

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 247 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Split upper-level flow observed across
the CONUS this afternoon with northern Michigan sitting between
fairly well-defined northern and southern jet maxes. Mid-upper level
heights have been slowly rising throughout the day, which is
expected to continue through the remainder of the day into tonight.
~1022 mb high pressure is currently situated across the mid-
Mississippi Valley, which will slowly drift by to our south across
the Ohio Valley overnight.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Cloud/temperature trends.

Any lingering morning lake effect snow is certainly in the rear view
mirror at this point as a result of increased subsidence and deep
layer drying, which ultimately brought crashing inversion heights
and little available moisture through the convective boundary layer.
Clouds have hung on fairly well, especially across eastern upper and
much of NW lower, while some clearing has been observed over parts
of northeast lower over the past few hours. Expect a slow decreasing
cloud trend to continue area-wide through the remainder of the
afternoon into this evening...becoming mainly clear overnight.

Despite mostly clear skies anticipated overnight, the pressure
gradient will remain fairly least tight enough for
periodically gusty winds, which should hamper radiational cooling to
an extent. Low temps tonight expected to range from the low-mid 20s
inland to near 30 degrees at the lakeshores. One caveat to this is
if winds are able to diminish significantly tonight (even for a
brief period), wouldn`t be surprised to see temperatures tank rather
rapidly in a few spots.


.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 247 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2019

...Quiet Weather and Mild Temperatures...

High Impact Weather....None is expected.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Temperatures, cloud cover and pops.

Nearly zonal flow aloft through the period should lead to fairly
mild temperatures. Model soundings and cross sections show
welcomed clear to partly cloudy skies Saturday, albeit with breezy
southwest winds. A series of short waves moving through the flow
across south central Canada Sunday into Monday should lead to partly
to mostly cloudy skies along with small chances for a few rain and
snow showers (especially across the upper Peninsula). Temperatures
will be near to slightly above normal through the period.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 247 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2019

...Thanksgiving Holiday Storm?...

High Impact Weather...Possible storm system to affect holiday
travel late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Extended models continue to advertise a possible storm system toward
the middle of next week. This could result in major impacts on the
biggest travel day of the year (the day before Thanksgiving).
Unfortunately it remains too early to make a call on whether this
storm will actually materialize and if it does, what the exact track
will be. From a pattern recognition standpoint, it makes sense that
energy emerging from the Rockies would spin up a storm in the
Plains which would head toward the Great Lakes. There does not
appear to be a large cold air source in advance or behind this
system but given a favorable track say over the thumb region,
dynamical cooling would likely be enough to produce accumulating
snowfall especially across the higher terrain and eastern upper.
Stay tuned over the coming days for the latest thinking on this
potential system. Slowly building heights Thursday into Friday
should then lead to the return of mild temperatures.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 600 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2019

Surface ridging and dry air will keep Northern Michigan
precip-free over the next 24 hours. Residual low VFR/high MVFR
lake clouds/cigs will dissipate this evening...leaving solid VFR
conditions across all of Northern Lower Michigan thru Saturday
evening. Surface winds will shift to the SW below 10 kts tonight
and will strengthen to 10 to 20 kts with higher gusts on Saturday.


Issued at 247 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2019

The pressure gradient will continue to relax a bit through the
remainder of the afternoon as low pressure continues to depart the
Great Lakes off to the northeast. However, the gradient looks to
stay just tight enough as high pressure passes to our south across
the Ohio Valley to continue occasional gustiness and resultant
advisory level winds through at least Saturday.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 PM EST Saturday for LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 PM EST Saturday for LMZ323-341-342-
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 PM EST Saturday for LSZ321.


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