Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 121703

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
103 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

Issued at 1023 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

Areas of strato-cumulus has developed in the cooler air behind a
weak front that pushed across the area earlier this morning. A few
radar returns (sprinkles?) over Lake Huron associated with a vort
max but everyone else is dry. A fairly quiet afternoon
weatherwise for northern Michigan. There is still the possibility
for a few showers to develop closer to Saginaw Bay associated with
weak low level convergence in response to weak lake breeze
boundaries. Very little in the way of instability, so sprinkles or
scattered light showers but likely no thunder. Winds will still
be gusty from the north at 10 to 20 mph throughout the afternoon.
Temperatures quite a bit cooler than the past several days, with
highs generally in the lower to middle 70s (a few readings near 80
possible toward Saginaw Bay).

Skies should clear fairly quickly this evening with the loss of
daytime heating and temperatures will cool into the comfortable
50s (even some 40s in the typically colder locations) overnight.


.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 351 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

Impactful weather: Minimal/None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Upper troughing was over the NE conus early this morning, including
the Great Lakes, while ridging was moving toward the Plains. At the
sfc, a cold front has dropped south of us, and cooler air moving in
was allowing for the development of some additional lower level
clouds, mainly in the nrn CWA. Otherwise, the weather was pretty
quiet, with temperatures mostly in the middle and upper 50. Not much
was going on upstream, as high pressure extended from Hudson Bay
southward into the Plains.

All-in-all, the weather will be quiet today through tonight. Clouds
will increase through daybreak and turn into a decent cumulus field
today. While forcing is very weak, an upper trough axis and some low
level convergence, will accompany a vort max through mid morning, to
possibly result in a few showers. By afternoon, a lake breeze
convergence zone is anticipated across portions of far NE lower,
closer to Saginaw Bay, where diurnal heating could also lead to a
few showers. Instability is pretty much nil, getting no higher than
50-80 j/kg of MLCAPE. So, thunder is out of the question, and I`m
not even sure about seeing a shower. Cumulus fades into the evening,
with clouds decreasing through the night.

Highs today will be in the lower to middle 70s, with higher upper
70s in downsloping areas in far NE lower. Lows tonight will range
through the 50s most areas.


.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 351 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

...Heat/Humidity Building Once Again...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Upper-level troffing responsible for the
cool weekend will be lifting out of the Great Lakes region at the
start of the period, with ridging building in behind it. The ridge
axis is forecast to be directly over the Great Lakes on Tuesday,
supporting some of the warmest temperatures of the week, with
daytime highs well into the 80s. However, with surface dew points
likely to be AOB 60 degrees, it should not feel too oppressive.

Quiet weather is expected during the period, although clouds will
start increasing on Tuesday ahead of the next storm system.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 351 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

High Impact Weather Potential...Low at this time.

Our next chance for organized showers/storms is progged to arrive
Tuesday night into Wednesday. A strong upper-level wave, currently
crashing ashore in the Pacific Northwest, will shear east-northeast,
driving a cold front across the western Great Lakes on Wednesday.
The precipitation and cloud cover with this system will help cool
temperatures some from where they will be Tuesday. The threat for
severe weather with this system is unclear at this time, but we`ll
need to keep an eye on this as the system draws closer.

The upper-level flow trends zonal behind the midweek system, and any
post-frontal cooling should be minimal. Heights gradually rise, and
low-level flow turns southerly, supporting building heat for the
rest of the week with highs well into the 80s or lower 90s. Current
model consensus suggests shower/storm chances return by next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 100 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

The stratocumulus/cumulus field across the area this afternoon
will dissipate quickly this evening with the loss of daytime
heating. CIGS will vary between high end MVFR and low end VFR for
several more hours this afternoon. Gusty northwest winds of
10-20kts will diminish this evening as high pressure slides toward
the Great Lakes and the gradient weakens. More diurnal
cumulus/stratocumulus expected on Monday. Winds will be lighter
with high pressure centered closer to the area.


Issued at 351 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

A cold front has dropped south of the region last evening, with
cooler air and some added clouds arriving to nrn Michigan. A few
showers will also be possible over Lake Huron today, but thunder is
pretty much out of the question. NW winds are likely to reach low
end advisory speeds again, aided by the cooler air over the warmer
Great Lakes. The winds will definitely drop off tonight through
Monday night, with the arrival of high pressure and quiet weather.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ346>348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-342-
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321-322.


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