Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 020149
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
949 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 948 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2022

Building high pressure near James Bay is pushing cooler air into
the region on a ne breeze. Surface temps are mostly in the 50s in
northern MI, but you don`t have to go too far ne of the Sault to
find mid-upper 30s. Winds will marginally decouple in our most
sheltered locales, but in most places the winds will stay coupled.
So a mix of radiational cooling and cold advection will be
responsible for where our min temps will end up.

A complicating factor is that Lk Huron is starting to generate
some stratocu in the cool ne flow. This is in a zone of slightly
enhanced low-level moisture, in the vicinity of an ill-defined
backdoor cold front. Expect patchy stratocu to gradually develop
southward with time, and be mainly near the Saginaw Bay area by
late overnight.

Min temps mainly mid 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 341 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2022

...Another cool night ahead...

Pattern Synopsis:

Upper-level ridging will continue to hold firm over the Great Plains
and parts of the Midwest, placing subsidence aloft over southern
Canada and the Great Lakes. This will help build strong surface high
pressure centered in Ontario closer to the Great Lakes through
tonight. A moisture-starved cold front draped across the far
northern Great Lakes will continue to sag across the forecast area
tonight.

Forecast Details:

Quiet weather is in store for northern Michigan through tonight.
While the aforementioned cold front will work through northern
Michigan overnight, the lack of moisture will hinder any precip
chances along the boundary. Waning cloud cover associated with the
front will also work into eastern upper this afternoon and evening,
but should clear out after dark leaving clear skies overnight. Lows
in the mid to upper 30s are expected across most areas away from the
lakeshores overnight as northeast flow filters in cool air behind
the front. Aforementioned moisture concerns combined with relatively
gusty winds overnight should preclude fog formation overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2022

...Dry Weather Continues...

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast and Possible Impacts...With the pattern
still stopped up with the remnants of Ian caught in the 500 mb
trough in the Mid-Atlantic States and the ridge in the center of the
country. This leaves the sfc ridge over the Great Lakes through
Tuesday evening. So the weather will be on the quiet side, with dry
weather through Tuesday evening at the least. The 500 mb jet looks
to flatten the top of the ridge by Tuesday afternoon/evening,
beginning to set up the next 500 mb trough to bring some precipitation
to the region.

One thing to note, for a time we will need to watch the minimum
relative humidities the next few days. The dry air could drop to
critical levels, but for now, it looks okay (around 35%). While the
temperatures will remain well below 75F, the low humidity and return
flow on Tuesday could be of concern, if the RH drops much more.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 341 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2022

High Impact Weather Potential...First snow?(yes, I said it).

Extended (Tuesday night through Sunday)...Tuesday night and
Wednesday, the first advance of the polar vortex begins to slosh
into northern Canada, pushing the polar jet a little closer to the
the UP. On the fringe of the jet in the Northern Plains, There is a
500 mb trough beginning to push the 500 mb ridge through. The action
of both begins to push the precipitation south and eastward so that
by Wednesday morning Rain showers are possible, and the rain
continues to spread southeast through the state by Thursday morning.
Rain looks likely for the rest of the day on Thursday, and the chance
for the precipitation to mix with or change to snow (yes I said it
again) going into the Friday morning. At this point little to no
accumulation would be with it, but it could cause morning commute
complications as people get used to driving with possibly slippery
conditions. However, if any snow stuck to the ground, it would be
gone by mid morning as temperatures warm above freezing, and the any
rain would take care of it in short order. Saturday, the models (GFS
and ECMWF) diverge in solutions with the ECMWF having shortwave
ridging to dry things out, while the GFS has a series of polar
vortices that rotate through the Upper Great Lakes. If that were to
happen it would be rain/snow mix. left the NBM dry weather since it
is day 7 and the dry weather from the ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 725 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2022

VFR.

A weak cold front will drop in from the north, with an associated
small band of mid-clouds. No precip. Should be enough of a ne
breeze tonight to minimize fog potential.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 341 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2022

Northeast winds will continue to increase through the afternoon,
reaching SCY criteria across the nearshore waters of Lake Huron and
the St. Marys River into Sunday afternoon. Winds will be near SCY
criteria across the nearshore waters of northern Lake Michigan, but
are expected to remain below thresholds at this time.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for LHZ346>349.
LM...NONE.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for LSZ322.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
NEAR TERM...DJC
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...DJC


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