Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 252300

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
700 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

.NEAR TERM...(Through Monday)
Issued at 209 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

...Light Snow and Rain Tonight...

High Impact Weather...None expected, although a few slippery spots
are possible.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Precipitation amounts and snow
accumulation amounts.

High pressure across the region will track off to our east as
weak low pressure and an associated short wave move in from the
west tonight. Model soundings/cross sections show an increase in
moisture through the column (especially mid and low levels)
through tonight. Forcing is weak however. Expect light
precipitation to spread into the region late this afternoon across
the far west and into the remainder of the forecast area by later
this evening. Mainly snow is expected across the higher terrain
where around an inch of accumulation is expected. Even a few
slippery spots may develop as slushy snow hardens up as
temperatures slip below freezing overnight. Elsewhere, rain or
mixed rain and snow will likely transition over to mostly snow.
The exception may be near the lakeshores where the relatively
warmer waters of the Great Lakes will likely keep precipitation
from totally changing over to all snow. Lingering precipitation
Monday with northerly winds picking up enough to focus some lake
effect (mainly rain) near the lakeshores. Lows tonight in the
upper 20s to low 30s. Highs Monday in the upper 30s to low 40s.


.SHORT TERM...(Monday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 209 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

...Temperatures trending to more normal-like by Wednesday...

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/forecast:

Broad troughing will continue to dominate northern Conus weather,
including the Great Lakes, right into the middle portions of this
week. Northern stream flow will largely be void of any significant
shortwaves, with nearly all focus for active weather expected to be
tied to slow moving upper level low pressure cutting from the desert
southwest into the southern Plains. This system will intercept any
northward moisture flux from the Gulf of Mexico...and combined with
relatively high pressure dominating the surface conditions to its
north, is setting the stage for a period of rather quiet conditions
across the northern Great Lakes.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Cloud/temperature trends and
addressing some lingering light lake effect shower potential.


Still plenty chilly enough Monday night to drum up more lake induced
showers, although light winds/possible land breeze development may
focus most of these showers offshore (even hints of mesolow
development across northern Lake Michigan). Approach of subtle wave
and attendant more focused west/southwest boundary layer flow will
likely punt any activity inland early Tuesday morning, with rapid
drying and development of warm air advection ending any lake effect
nonsense quickly during the day. Those dry conditions look to remain
steadfast right into Wednesday as a dry low level environment and
continued warming negates any lake moisture contribution. Highs
Tuesday will be similar to those experienced the last few days, with
readings in the upper 30s to middle 40s. Increasingly gusty
southwest winds will help drive temperatures up to near normal
levels on Wednesday, with highs ranging from the middle 40s to lower

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 209 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

...Quiet with seasonable temperatures...

High impact weather: None.

Real only feature of interest through the remainder of the week on
into the weekend is eventual ejection of that southern stream
wave/closed low on Thursday. System will have plenty of moisture at
its disposal as tropical system "Zeta" moves north out of the
Caribbean. Pattern recognition of northern stream flow placement
supports vast majority of mid-range guidance ensembles of keeping
any rain with this system well off to our south across the Ohio
Valley and far southern Great Lakes. Will definitely keep the
forecast trended in this dry direction. Really nothing of
significance thereafter, with passage of moisture starved northern
wave bringing a bit of colder air Thursday night into Friday. Strong
hints that overall troughing will relax heading into the weekend as
upstream flow across the northern Pacific undergoes significant
transformation. This looks to punt cold air anomalies well north
into Canada, flooding the northern Conus with modified Pacific air.
As such, current trends support highs both Halloween and Sunday well
up into the 40s and lower 50s. Dry weather expected to continue into
at least the start of the weekend, with some hints of a weak wave
bringing a few light showers on Sunday (although have to admit
definitely not sold on Sunday rain chances given dearth of moisture
and significant timing issues within mid range guidance).


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 700 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

Cold high pressure will remain centered to our north and west...
as a weak wave rides up thru Wisconsin and Lower Michigan tonight
into Monday. Widespread light precip will continue to overspread
Lower Michigan tonight into Monday morning...with some diminish in
precip coverage by Monday afternoon as the wave pull away from our
area. Precip type will generally be a mix of rain and snow near
our lakeshores...with mixed precip transitioning to all snow this
evening and then back to a mix on Monday. Conditions will continue
to deteriorate to MVFR and eventually IFR as this precip
develops. Light/variable winds tonight will become northerly at
around 10 kts by Monday afternoon.


Issued at 209 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

High pressure moves off to the east with a weak area of low
pressure crossing the lakes tonight into Monday. Light winds
through tonight will briefly increase Monday (out of the north)
before becoming light again Monday night into Tuesday. No
headlines are anticipated over the next couple of days.




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