Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 031735
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
135 PM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread high clouds will keep temperatures in the 50s to
lower 60s today, as an area of low pressure remains to our
south. This system will try and sling back some rain showers
into parts of northeastern Pennsylvania on Tuesday, before
finally moving away from the region on Wednesday. This will
allow high pressure to build back in with a stretch of dry and
mild weather through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1230 PM Update...

The closed upper low continues to spin over the Delmarva, with
thick mid and upper level clouds over northeast PA and the
Catskills thinning more to the north and west you go across our
forecast area. A few weak radar returns are starting to graze
our southern zones once more, so isolated showers have been
added to the forecast mainly across the Wyoming valley and
Poconos for the afternoon - but no real accumulations are
expected with fairly steep dewpoint depressions. Meanwhile,
temperatures are rising into the 50s this afternoon, with much
of the area peaking in the mid 50s under the blanket of high
clouds. However, some values closer to the 60 degree mark will
be possible across portions of the Finger Lakes and western
Mohawk valley, where clouds are a little thinner.

Temperatures tonight will drop into the upper-30s to lower-40s
again, depending on where exactly the higher clouds set up.
Clear regions and areas of thinner cloud cover will again see
temperatures drop lower, with a risk of frost. Given the
uncertainty, the troubles seen overnight, and the relative non-
criticality of frost advisories...decided to hold off on
issuing any frost/freeze headlines for tonight.

The closed low is expected to wobble a bit over the next
24-36 hours, with some rainfall expected to pivot back over NE
PA on Tuesday, particularly over the Poconos.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
350 AM update...

The surface low pressure system that developed from the
remnants of Ian will be stationary just off the Virginia and
Delmarva coasts. With this system remaining closer than what has
been shown in previous model runs, a couple of showers may pass
over southern portions of the Catskills, Poconos, and Wyoming
Valley Tuesday night. High pressure and drier air will keep the
rest of the region dry. Skies begin to clear from the northwest
during the overnight hours, and temperatures fall into the upper
30s to mid 40s. Temperatures will dropped slightly below
guidance for area that are expected to clear out for the
overnight hours.

The low will finally move away from the coast on Wednesday. Skies
continue to clear with dry conditions continuing through the rest of
this period. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than average,
climbing into the mid 60s to low 70s. The overnight hours will be
seasonal with lows in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
350 AM update...

Temperatures continue the upward climb on Thursday, maxing out in
the upper 60s and low 70s. Dry conditions are also expected during
the daytime hours as high pressure holds on just a bit longer. A
shortwave moves through Thursday night and could trigger a passing
shower or two over north-central NY. Lows will be in the 40s. As is
typical in the fall, the pendulum swings back the other way
following a pleasant day for this time of year. An upper-level low
moves into the Great Lakes region on Friday, and a surface low over
Lake Ontario will pull a cold front through the area, bringing a
round of showers, blustery winds, and a much colder airmass. The
highest chances for showers will be across CNY. The highs will
be 10 to 15 degrees colder than what is expected on Thursday
with overnight temps falling back into the 30s.

This frontal system is quick to depart, but flow becomes
northwesterly and wrap-around moisture will support lake effect
showers in CNY Friday night and Saturday. The main precipitation
type will be rain, but the overnight hours will be cool enough for
snow to mix in. There is some uncertainty for the second half of the
weekend. Some models keep the lake effect showers going into Sunday
as well. However, high pressure begins to build into the region,
which would help cut off any lingering showers. Given this
uncertainty, PoPs for Sunday are capped at just slight chance.
Temperatures of the weekend will be cool with 40s and 50s for highs
on Saturday and then 50s for Sunday. Nightly temperatures will be in
the 30s and 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the period with widespread
high clouds the main feature. Ceilings are coming in at around
15 to 25kft for most terminals, but may start to lower below
10kft at AVP into the early hours of Tuesday while a few more
rain showers work into the area. Northeast winds at around 5 to
7kts this afternoon turn light and variable again into the
night, so patchy valley fog is not out of the question at ELM
early Tuesday morning. However, with cloudy skies, confidence
in any restrictions is low. Winds remain out of the
north/northeast Tuesday, picking up again to around 5 to 7kts.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Thursday...VFR expected, with morning
valley fog possible at ELM.

Friday and Saturday...Restrictions possible in passing rain
showers.


&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...HLC/MPH
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...HLC


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