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000
FXUS64 KBMX 222310
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
610 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2023

A tropical system will continue up the east coast through the
short term. Today, easterly winds will slowly transition to the
northeast. There will be some moisture over the area with PW
values around 1.2-1.4 inches. With CAPE values only a couple
hundreds of J/kg, development will be limited with no shower
activity expected other than a few sprinkles.

This evening, winds will continue to transition to a northerly
flow. This will advect dry air into the area. PW values overnight
and Saturday will average the 25th percentile for this time of
year, so dry weather and a few clouds are expected on Saturday.
High temperatures today will be near normal in the 80s. Tomorrow,
temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 80s, slightly
warmer than today with less cloud cover anticipated. Tonight,
temperatures will be a couple of degrees below normal in the upper
50s to low 60s.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2023

The newly named Tropical Storm Ophelia will move northward along
the Atlantic Coast this weekend. Northerly winds on the west side
of the storm will advect drier air southward into the local area.
This will keep the area rain-free during the day Sunday, and have
delayed low rain chances until Sunday night.

Beyond Sunday night, not much has changed with the forecast,
except some minor increases in temperatures, mainly in the
overnight periods. The mid level pattern will remain unsettled,
which will leave isolated to scattered rain coverage in the
forecast for most days next week.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 221 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2023

Much of Sunday will be dry across the area, before rain chances move
into the western counties by Sunday evening. Afterward, we will
remain unsettled in Central Alabama through much of the week, with
passing shortwaves leading to increased PoPs every period from
Sunday night through Thursday. Exact timing remains to be resolved,
but several impulses of activity, bringing scattered showers and
occasional thunderstorms, look to enter the area as we get into a
pattern of west to northwest flow aloft. The best chances for
thunder this week look to come during the afternoon hours each day
Monday through Thursday.

Afternoon high temperatures in Central Alabama will generally be in
the 80s each day from Sunday through the coming week. Temps around
90 can`t be ruled out across the southern areas, especially Sunday
afternoon. Conversely, far northern and eastern areas may stay in
the upper 70s on some afternoons this week owing to higher PoPs.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2023

VFR conds thru the period with no cig or vsby issues expected. Sct
cumulus will develop after 14Z with sfc winds north-northwest at
4-6 kts.

58/rose

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A dry air mass will be in place over the area through Sunday.
Minimum RH values today through Sunday will be 30 to 45 percent
each afternoon, with lowest values in the southern and
southwestern counties. 20ft winds will be northerly Saturday, at
5-7 mph, decreasing slightly on Sunday. Rain chances return to
the area late Sunday night/early Monday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     58  86  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    59  86  56  86 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  62  86  60  86 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  62  89  61  88 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      61  87  61  87 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      61  86  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  61  89  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        61  89  61  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...58/rose