Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 031737 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1237 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

...New AVIATION...

(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

Modest mid-level ridging will maintain dry and comfortable
weather through the period. Pacific Hurricane Orlene is forecast
to make landfall later today along the west-central coast of
mainland Mexico, south of Mazatlan. After landfall, Orlene will
quickly weaken over the higher terrain of Mexico tonight. The mid-
level energy associated with the remnants of Orlene is expected to
move over Deep South Texas tonight into Tuesday morning. With a
fairly dry airmass still in place, we will likely just see an
increase in mid to high clouds through much of the period. Surface
high pressure across the northwest Gulf of Mexico will continue
to maintain generally light to moderate east to northeast winds
today and Tuesday with light and variable winds expected tonight.
Temperatures will remain slightly below normal through the short
term. Highs today and Tuesday will be in the mid to upper 80s to
around 90. Lows tonight are expected to fall into the mid to upper
60s, except for the lower 70s near the coast.


(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

The latest model package continues to trend from a dry atmosphere to
an increasingly wetter pattern Thursday-Sunday. Deterministic and
ensemble models becoming better in line with the wetter pattern
giving increasing confidence to the overall forecast.

Fair weather continues Tuesday night and Wednesday with a mix of
sun and clouds, slightly higher humidity and modifying or slightly
warmer temperatures as the atmosphere begins a slow transition with
a broad low pressure trough moving into the Desert Southwest. The
Southwest flow aloft increases and a weak coastal trough develops
Thursday as the upper trough deepens into a closed low strengthening
SW-S flow. Weak perturbations in the southerly flow and the proximity
of the coastal trough could combine with increasing low-level
moisture to initiate the wetter pattern.

Friday through Saturday rain chances increase another notch as a
northern stream trough sends a cold front into South Texas. Models
show a substantial deepening of moisture and PWATs surge 1.75-2.10
inches. The front itself now looks to push south of the Rio Grande
Friday night as a 1035mb surface ridge moves into the Missouri
Valley. Both the GFS/ECMWF show the front becoming stationary south
of the River early Saturday with a surface front extending near the
Texas coast. The high moisture depth and content and the
front/trough may support 0.5-1+ inches of rainfall during this
time period. Temperatures are likely to drop below average but how
low is the question. The current forecast is trending with the
NBM blend showing low to mid 80s Friday and Saturday which is in
between the cooler GFS (70s and low 80s) and the warmer ECMWF
(mid-upper 80s). Lows in the 60s to lower 70 near the Lower RGV
and the coast should suffice. Sunday although still trending wet
confidence is low as models shows some differences if the front
remains intact or dissipates lessening a focusing mechanism.


(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours with generally
light east-northeasterly winds. Visible satellite imagery shows a
scattered altocumulus deck trying to establish itself early this
afternoon, with a large swath of high cirrus streaming across
Mexico and into Deep South Texas associated with Pacific Hurricane
Orlene. This high level cloud deck will likely remain overhead
the airfields across the Rio Grande Valley for the next 24 hours.


Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

Now through Tuesday...Buoy 42020 reported northeast winds around
10 knots with seas of 2 feet with a period around 4 seconds at
0230 CDT/0730 UTC. Favorable conditions will continue along the
Lower Texas Coast with high pressure in control. Light to
occasional moderate east to northeast winds and generally low seas
are expected through the period.

Tuesday night through Friday: Pressure gradient remains slack Tuesday
night through Friday with weak high pressure over the Gulf and a
cold front advancing slowly through Texas. A light to moderate
easterly wind and slight sea is expected through Friday with rain
rain chances increasing Thursday and Friday as the front advances
south. A more unsettled marine state is forecast for next weekend
as the cold front looks to push south of the Rio Grande increasing
northeast winds near small craft advisory levels.


BROWNSVILLE             70  89  71  89 /   0  10   0  10
HARLINGEN               68  88  68  88 /   0  10   0  10
MCALLEN                 68  90  68  91 /  10   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         67  88  68  88 /  10   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      77  84  76  84 /   0  10   0  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     71  86  71  86 /   0  10   0  10




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