Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 031313
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
913 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
After a frosty start to the day, we will see temperatures rebound
into the 50s with plentiful sunshine. Tonight will be another cold
one as lows once again drop into the 20s and 30s. A warming trend
will be observed Tuesday through Thursday before a cold front moves
through the region on Friday. This cold front will bring our next
chance of precipitation Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 903 AM EDT Monday...Have allow the Frost Advisories and
Freeze Warnings from this morning to expire with this 9 AM
update. There still likely remains some patchy frost, especially
in the higher terrain of the Northeast Kingdom and northern
Adirondacks, where temperatures still remain slightly below
freezing. However, the increasing sun will allow temperatures
to continue to rise through the morning. Additional frost/freeze
headlines will likely be needed for tonight based on current
forecast temperatures, but will continue to evaluate as latest
guidance comes in today. Previous discussion follows...

Previous discussion...Cool and dry conditions will continue for
the first part of the work week as high pressure remains draped
over the region. High clouds have been fairly stubborn so far
this morning, so some locations are running a little warmer than
expected. However, with temperatures in the lower to mid 30s
areawide, and even some mid/upper 20s, widespread frost/local
freeze conditions are likely through sunrise. Therefore, the
current frost/freeze headlines will remain in place until 9 am.
The scattered high clouds that are lingering over the region
will gradually thin out today, making for a mostly sunny day.
Highs will be similar to yesterday, generally in the mid 50s to
around 60. Tonight will be mostly clear and calm, and given
these optimal radiational cooling conditions, expect
temperatures will be quite similar to what we`ve seen this
morning. Subsequent shifts will likely need to issue
frost/freeze headlines for tonight into early Tuesday. Tuesday
will be a near repeat of today, with some high clouds starting
to spread back north late in the day. Temperatures will be a
little warmer still, with most locations getting into the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 354 AM EDT Monday...Little will change to the weather pattern
from the previous couple of days. High pressure will continue to
weaken along with the mid level ridge, but as long as it remains in
place we will see calm winds and dry air. However, with a warmer
start to the night, temperatures Wednesday morning will not get as
cold as previous nights with lows expected to be largely in the 35
to 40 range. Occasional lowering and thickening of high clouds
associated with the lingering low pressure area well to our south
also may impact mainly south central Vermont, with a potential
warming effect where thick clouds persist in the early morning
hours. Otherwise, as that system gradually moves eastward so too
will these clouds. At the same time, high clouds from the west may
spill over the upper level ridge centered over the Great Lakes,
impacting northwestern portions of our region during the day. In
between in much of northeastern New York into northern Vermont,
skies should be mostly sunny as temperatures warm a few degrees
above Tuesday`s values with mid and upper 60s expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 354 AM EDT Monday...Still looking at mild and dry conditions
through Thursday before a strong cold frontal passes on Friday.
Model guidance shows sharply cooler air arriving during the daytime
hours. Therefore, we continue to show a west-east gradient for high
temperatures on Friday; highs are reached early in the day from the
Adirondacks and points west while temperatures climb back into the
60s and possibly near 70 to the east, prior to the frontal passage.
Unusually large ranges in potential high temperatures still is
evident, although the lower end has trended a bit warmer as the
intensity of cold air is looking less extreme. Also guidance has
been trending towards weaker surface features, as the high pressure
area building in behind the front weakens significantly and while
low pressure passing to our north is relatively weak. Altogether,
the pressure gradient over the region and therefore wind speeds,
even in the cold air advection pattern late Friday, will not be
overly strong.

Continue to show a chance of showers areawide on Friday associated
with the surface front, but precipitation amounts will likely be
meager. Chances for rainfall in excess of 0.1" is mainly in the 20
to 50% range, greatest in the higher terrain in northern Vermont. A
little bit of instability ahead of the front may develop, but
probability of thunder is very low (less than 10%) and limited by
poor moisture return. Additionally, snow shower chances are also
looking questionable, with too much uncertainty in the interaction
of an incoming shortwave trough lagging behind the front. If an
upper level low tracks overhead, mountain snow showers will be
possible over the weekend as temperatures aloft look sufficiently
cold.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...Outside of some local IFR/LIFR early this
morning in patchy fog, VFR conditions are expected through the
next 24 hours with just FEW- SCT high clouds. Winds will remain
light and variable through about 14z, increasing to 5-10 kt
from the north thereafter. They`ll subside again after sunset.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Duell/Hastings
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Hastings


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