Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 031728
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
128 PM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain across the region early this week
with a slow warming trend during the days and cooler nights. A
sharp cold front will bring increasing chances for showers and
much cooler conditions late this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Broad high pressure will settle over the area today and remain in
place through Tuesday. Winds will be lighter, but high clouds will
edge into eastern areas.

Higher cloud cover may continue to expand into the area tonight.
These clouds may impact potential for frost tonight though with
high pressure overhead/light winds and very dry airmass (pwats
down below 0.25 inch, near the daily minimum for the day) in
place it will remain quite favorable for colder temps and frost.
May need another round of frost/freeze headlines.

High temps this afternoon will reach the mid 50s to around 60, but
will increase into mainly the low to mid 60s on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Quiet weather expected Tuesday night through Wednesday night as a
flattening mid-level ridge drifts east from the Great Lakes to New
England. A developing southwest return flow around the associated
surface high will slowly advect warmer air into the region, with
high temperatures climbing into the mid 60s to low 70s Wednesday and
Thursday. Low temperatures Tuesday night will be in the mid 40s with
upper 30s across the higher terrain, even warmer Wednesday night
with 40s and low 50s.

The mid-level ridge axis will be east of to the region by Thursday,
while upstream a positively tilted trough will begin digging across
the Great Lakes. This system will bring a sharp cold front through
the region, though shower activity out ahead of the front looks
limited. Therefore expect a mostly dry and somewhat breezier day
Thursday, with increasing cloud cover from west to east. A few
showers may reach WNY later Thursday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A deepening longwave trough will pivot across the Great Lakes
Thursday night through the first half of the weekend as high
pressure slides up and away from the New England coast. A broad
surface low tracking northeast from southern Ontario to eastern
Quebec Province will send a sharp cold front through the region,
which will bring chances for showers and plummeting temperatures.

As the front arrives in the Lower Lakes Thursday night, a round of
rain showers will sweep through the CWA from west to east through
Friday afternoon. Overall synoptic support along the front looks
weak, with precipitation mainly anabatic in nature and a lack of
strong upper level jet dynamics in place. While a washout with the
frontal passage looks unlikely, temperatures will certainly take a
nosedive with 850mb temps Thursday evening around +10C falling all
the way down to -5C or colder by Friday night.

These sharply colder temperatures over the relatively warm lakes
will provide more than enough instability over the lakes to generate
lake effect showers Friday night into Saturday morning. Model
guidance continues to struggle with the evolution of this pattern,
both among the deterministic solutions and also with run-to-run
continuity. The 00z GFS and CMCNH are both notably more aggressive
with the deepening trough, both showing a distinct upper level
cutoff low by Friday as compared to the ECMWF which maintains an
open wave. There are also timing differences with the front as well,
which will have an impact on the start time of lake enhancement and
placement of bands.

With these discrepancies in mind, and given the general northwest
flow pattern behind the front, will shy away from `likely` PoPs
until the details come into better focus. Have opted instead to go
with coverage wording in the forecast for Friday night and Saturday,
since there are strong signals for lake effect rain showers in any
of the possible scenarios. Temperatures may drop low enough into the
low 30s for some wet flakes to mix in across the higher terrain
areas Friday night into Saturday morning. Surface high pressure will
then build back in across the Lower Lakes later Saturday with mostly
dry albeit chilly weather through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR through Tuesday as high pressure settles overhead. An increase
in cirrus expected into the area tonight and Tuesday on the
northwest side of the coastal low.

Patchy MVFR fog possible at KJHW late tonight. but confidence low
with increase in higher clouds. Winds generally north or northeast
at 5-10 knots this afternoon, becoming calm tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.
Friday and Saturday...Some restrictions possible in scattered
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and waves continue to decrease but there will be a continued
chop today on Lake Ontario mainly west of Irondequoit Bay and also
on Lake Erie toward Ripley. Light winds and minimal waves tonight
into Tuesday as high pressure settles overhead.

Looking ahead, southwest winds increase later Wednesday into
Thursday ahead of sharp cold front. After that front swings through
late Thursday night, expect another round of small craft advisory
conditions on Friday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JLA/TMA
NEAR TERM...JLA/TMA
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...JLA/TMA
MARINE...JLA


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