Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 012329

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
729 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2022

Some clouds associated with an upper low north of the area,
along with the remnants of Ian, will remain across the area
through Sunday. Drier conditions develop Monday through mid week
as the low moves further offshore and high pressure builds into
the area although cooler than normal temperatures will
continue. More seasonable temperatures by late week with dry


The upper low and remnants of Ian will remain nearly stationary
tonight over NC/VA while a weak surface trough will slips
southeastward through the region. Light drizzle that has been
showing up on radar over the eastern Midlands and Pee Dee will
be moving out of the area, and dry conditions should prevail
through the night. Bufkit time heights show some lingering
moisture in the 4-8kft layer which may result in some clouds
overnight. The cloud cover and some boundary layer wind should
limit strong radiational cooling but the below normal air mass
will still support lows in the 50s.


Sunday and Sunday night: The upper trough over VA will begin
shifting southeastward on Sunday in response to an upper trough
over the Rockies shifting eastward and amplifying an upper ridge
over the middle of the country. As for sensible weather over
the forecast area, generally expecting a dry forecast with
limited moisture as PWATs are just over 1 inch and the upper
forcing will remain well to the north and east of the region.
Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy through the day with
surface heating combining with the moisture in the low and mid
levels. High temperatures will remain below normal and range
from the upper 60s north to mid 70s in the CSRA. Skies should
clear through the night with the loss of heating but radiational
cooling will again be limited, this time by increasing
northerly winds with a 35-40 knot low level jet as reinforcing
high pressure builds in from the north. Overnight lows expected
in the lower to mid 50s.

Monday through Tuesday: An upper level low pressure system will
slowly move off the East Coast early next week. Cooler air on
the backside of the upper low will wedge along the Appalachians
and lead to much below normal temperatures on Monday.
Temperatures will warm on Tuesday as the upper low departs.
Highs will be from the mid 60s north to lower 70s south on
Monday and low to mid 70s on Tuesday. Excellent radiational
cooling conditions will lead to lows in the mid to upper 40s.


A shortwave ridge Wednesday through Thursday will lead to
temperatures warming to near normal with highs in the mid 70s to
lower 80s. Excellent radiational cooling conditions will
persist with lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

A dry cold front is forecast to pass through the region next
Friday followed by strong Canadian high pressure. Temperatures
will be warmer than normal on Friday with highs in the lower to
mid 80s and then much cooler on Saturday behind the front.



A remnant low and surface trough, associated with the remnants of
Ian and an upper level low, stretch across the region.  An upper
vort max will shift to our east tonight and allow some dissipation
of mid level cloud cover.  Another vort max will swing around the
upper low across our region Sunday, and combined with diurnal
heating, could allow increasing mid level cloud cover, with bases
above VFR level. Combination of some cloud cover, and some slightly
drier air moving in late tonight is expected to preclude any fog
formation, with the possible exception at fog prone AGS. However,
confidence of fog at AGS appears insufficient at this time to
include mention.

EXTENDED...Possibility of MVFR CIG restrictions late Sunday
night and Monday, more favored at CAE/CUB/OGB than at AGS/DNL.
No significant impacts expected late Monday through Thursday.




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