Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 012306
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
606 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022

With winds and swells decreasing, tide levels have come down
slightly. Tides are running from 0.5 to 0.9 feet above expected.
P-ETSS and ETSS show tides will be slightly below advisory
criteria for tonight`s high tide. No advisory for tonight.

Clear skies will continue this evening with some high level
clouds moving across Mexico into south Texas during the overnight
hours. Mid and high level moisture associated with Hurricane
Orlene in the eastern Pacific will move across Mexico into the
region Sunday into Sunday night night ahead of a mid level trough
over northwestern Mexico. Went slightly below NBM for lows
tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022

Key Messages:

- Dry conditions continue through mid-week next week

Not much has changed from the previous long term packages. Models
continue to show mid-level energy associated with the "remnants" of
Tropical Storm Orlene sweeping across the area early next week, but
with PWATs generally around an inch showers and storms are not
expected to develop, thus we will only likely see an increase in
cloud cover. Moisture will begin to filter into the region by late
next week as a shortwave makes its way into South Texas ushering in
PWATs between 1.25-1.5". With the energy associated with the
shortwave and decent upper level support, isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be possible late next week across the southern
half of the CWA.

With generally easterly flow and an increase in cloud cover early
next week, highs will remain in the upper 80s near the coast to the
lower 90s across the Brush Country. Lows will remain relatively cool
with temperatures ranging from the lower to upper 60s inland and
lower 70s near the coast.

With northeast flow weakening through early next week, the P-ETSS
model is beginning to gradually lower their guidance in reaching
coastal flood advisory criteria.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022

VFR conditions and light east-southeasterly winds expected through
the period. Upper level clouds will return to all sites except VCT
Sunday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 343 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022

A weak occasionally moderate east to northeast flow is expected
tonight into Sunday before becoming weak Sunday night.

Weak northeast flow will continue through Monday night, then
shifting to become more of an easterly flow increasing to weak to
moderate levels. Winds are currently forecast to increase to
moderate to strong levels Friday morning, resulting in Small Craft
Exercise Caution conditions. Dry conditions are expected to continue
through mid-week next week before showers and storms return to the
offshore waters Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    63  88  63  87 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          53  87  58  88 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            64  89  66  86 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             59  89  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          69  86  67  87 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           62  88  64  89 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        60  89  64  86 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       68  86  69  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM....JCP
AVIATION...TC/95


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