Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 222138

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
338 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 338 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2019

High pressure was in place from the mid-Mississippi Valley
northward into the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes this
afternoon. Skies were partly to mostly sunny across the Northland.
Northwesterly flow aloft will become quasi-zonal tonight as a
shortwave moves into the Northern Plains. Most of the region will
continue to see clear skies overnight, although areas along the
International Border will see increasing clouds ahead of the
shortwave. Winds will remain slightly breezy overnight as a tight
pressure gradient sets up with the high to the southeast and low
pressure to the west. Lows will be slightly warmer tonight in the
upper teens and lower 20s with the winds not calming down.

Saturday will start out partly to mostly sunny but clouds will be
on the increase as a shortwave trough moves through. This feature
will quickly move through during the morning hours with northwest
flow setting up behind it. This is expected to be a dry passage,
but a subtle wave then arrives during the evening hours and
coupled with the northwest flow, will lead to light snow showers
and flurries across the northern two-thirds of the Northland
Saturday night. The best chances for any snow will be along the
International Border as most of the moisture in association with
a stronger shortwave/surface low pass by to the north and east.
Little to no accumulations are expected with this activity. Highs
tomorrow will be near to slightly above normal in the 30s with
lows tomorrow night in the 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 338 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2019

An energetic jet stream will be at the heart of sensible weather
across much of the country over the next week. A speed maxima comes
onshore in the PacNW on Sunday into Monday and intensifies over the
long axis of the US.  This will be the primary driver of the larger
storms that cross the country. While that is digging down across the
Mountain West a few impulses will drift down from Canada giving us
some minor snowfall - mainly Monday morning as a clipper system
slides across the Canadian Border. Most of the QPF with this clipper
falls north of the border, but a warm nose will be in the process of
eroding when some of the lighter precip falls on this side of the
border resulting in some potential for a wintry mix. Impacts should
be minimal.

The mid week system has drifted more to the north and west, but
still should largely miss our forecast area. Southern and perhaps
central Wisconsin get into the action now according to the ECMWF
which may put portions of NW WI into the comma-head wrap around
precip, but we`ll have to wait and see. For now carrying, sub-50
PoPs for NW WI.

The next larger system takes place towards the end of next weekend
and appears to have a much better shot at impacting the Northland in
some way given the current model runs long wave pattern evolution.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2019

VFR conditions expected except for a brief period in NW WI a the
morning clouds burn off under high pressure. Winds will be gusty
from the west today before lulling overnight. Heading into the
overnight hours, LLWS will become a concern as stronger wind
speeds move in aloft.


Issued at 338 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2019

High pressure builds to the south as low pressure crosses near
Hudson Bay causing a strong pressure gradient across the Lake
Superior basin. This will result in small craft southwesterlies
across the waters and will build waves the further you go east
across Lake Superior. A cold front will cross Saturday and winds
will decrease Saturday afternoon.


DLH  22  36  27  36 /   0   0  20  20
INL  22  34  28  36 /   0   0  20  20
BRD  23  37  29  39 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  20  37  26  39 /   0   0  10  10
ASX  22  38  27  41 /   0   0  20  10


LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST Saturday for LSZ121-140>148.



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