Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 252349
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
649 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020

Broad and weak lift associated with a passing upper level short
wave has caused fairly widespread light snow today mainly across
northwest Wisconsin. On the Minnesota side, where the synoptic
cloud cover has been less, some convective snow showers have
developed due to a combination of diabatic heating and increased
moisture and instability from the larger lakes. In general, this
snowfall has been pretty light, with a few heavier bursts here and
there, though temperatures have warmed just enough such that snow
has had a hard time sticking to roadways, and thus impacts have
been minimal. As the sun sets, however, any residual snow showers
may cause roads to become slick in spots. Heavier lake- enhanced
snow has been falling along the South Shore, with a couple reports
of 1.5" in Gile and near Bayfield. With surface winds light from
the northwest, the lake- enhanced snow bands have largely hugged
the coastline and not spread inland too far. These snow showers
are expected to continue through the afternoon, but decrease in
coverage and intensity after sunset.

Drier air will move in tonight with surface winds becoming more
westerly. This will bring an end for most of the synoptic snow,
but a cold air mass in place will keep chances for light lake-
effect snow flurries or light snow showers going into the night.
Chances will be less over Ashland/Iron Counties with a less
favorable westerly wind, but the possibility will be there along
the Bayfield Peninsula and also downwind of Minnesota`s larger
lakes. Any accumulations are expected to be light, though isolated
accumulations up to an inch can`t be ruled out downwind of the
larger Minnesota lakes if any snow bands are persistent.
Especially for areas not affected by lake-effect snow or clouds
tonight, temperatures will drop into the low to mid teens.

Monday`s weather will be characterized by a mix of clouds and
sun. A dry air mass in place with high pressure to the south will
bring at least some peeks of sunshine, but warm air advection
developing later in the day may promote some diabatic cloud
development below a mid-level inversion and keep some areas in the
clouds. Otherwise, a dry and cool day with highs a few degrees
below freezing. Lows Monday night will drop into the lower teens
and single digits for some places as skies clear out with high
pressure centered just south of the region.

Southwesterly winds will pick up going into Tuesday as the
pressure gradient tightens between a surface high over Iowa and a
shortwave trough passing across the International Border. A bit of
light snow possibly mixed with freezing drizzle will be possible
along the International Border Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
night as this wave passes through with snow accumulations half an
inch or less.

A generally quiet and dry extended period is expected beyond
Tuesday with temperatures gradually warming up. Upper level
ridging will develop by next weekend with southerly winds and warm
air advection bringing high temperatures up into the 40s by
Halloween.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 649 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020

Snow showers will keep MVFR conditions for BRD and HYR over the next
few hours. Elsewhere, scattered snow showers may briefly drop
conditions to MVFR early this evening. These snow showers are
expected to diminish overnight, which will lead to VFR conditions
for the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020

Northwest winds between 5 and 10 kt will continue tonight,
becoming a bit more westerly by Monday morning. Wind speeds will
become westerly on Monday, then southwesterly Monday night. Wind
speeds will increase Monday night into Tuesday. Small Craft
Advisories will likely be needed late Monday night into Tuesday,
especially along the Bayfield Peninsula and parts of the North
Shore with wind gusts 25 to 30 kt. There is a possibility for some
gale force wind gusts as well, especially Tuesday night. Wave
heights will build as high as 10 ft along parts of the North
Shore, mainly from Silver Bay and points northeast, on Tuesday and
Tuesday night. Gusty winds will gradually weaken on Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  15  29  12  32 /  10   0   0   0
INL  14  30  12  33 /  20  10   0  20
BRD  13  27   8  29 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  17  32  11  35 /  20   0   0   0
ASX  21  32  14  37 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...Unruh/Wolfe
MARINE...JDS


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