Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 040821
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
321 AM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022

Areas of high clouds otherwise quiet weather continues with early
morning temperatures mainly in the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022

Our friend the upper level ridge that has brought our area dry
weather for at least a week will finally start shifting to the
Ohio Valley. This will allow for an upper level trough to approach
from the west but any showers should remain west of the dvn cwa
through tonight. Warm again today with highs in the 70s with lows
tonight around 50.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022

Summary...chances of showers and an isolated thunderstorm return to
the region for Wednesday and Thursday, but not expecting much
rainfall accumulation from this activity. A blast of colder air will
cool temperatures down for the early part of the weekend, with
widespread frost, and potentially hard freeze, conditions expected
Friday night/Saturday morning.

Wednesday will start off with a big change in the large-scale
pattern, as the omega blocking pattern that has kept our region dry
and quiet breaks down. A mid-level shortwave trough is progged to
sweep through during the day Wednesday, providing the forcing for
some precipitation to develop. Despite a cut-off upper-level low
within the trough, it should be transient enough to result in only
meager rainfall amounts. Additionally, some dry will linger in the
lower-levels, which will help suppress rainfall amounts. Instability
also looks pretty modest, with values of mixed-layer CAPE values on
the order of 500 J/kg. We can`t rule out an isolated thunderstorm,
but convective activity shouldn`t become widespread. Total rainfall
amounts should only be up to a tenth of an inch for most locations,
if that, so not enough to result in wet fields for the farmers out
harvesting crops.

As the shortwave exits the region Wednesday night, a broader
longwave trough will quickly follow behind. An attendant cold front
will sweep through the region Thursday, ushering in cooler
temperatures. A tightening surface pressure gradient will support
some gusty northwest winds Thursday, with gusts between 20 to 30
mph. Overnight low Thursday night/Friday morning will dip into the
middle to upper 30s, so only some patchy frost is expected. However,
the bigger story will be Friday night/Saturday morning, when an
anomalously strong high pressure system builds in, with ideal
conditions for radiational cooling under clear skies and light
winds. Friday night/Saturday morning low temperatures are forecast
to fall to the upper 20s to lower 30s for most locations, resulting
in widespread frost, with perhaps a hard freeze for some spots.

Forecast models hint at another round of precipitation early next
week, but there remains uncertainty in the timing and coverage of
this activity.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022

VFR conds with high level clouds through this taf cycle. Mainly
southerly winds less than 10 knots, but light and variable at times.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Haase
SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...Schultz
AVIATION...Haase


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