Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 031731
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1231 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

.Discussion...
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON OCT 3 2022

Overview:

Quiet weather will continue to dominate the week ahead. Expect
temps mainly in the 70s to low 80s each day and dry weather. Some
low end rain chances look possible on Wednesday however nearly all
of the forecast area is expected to stay dry at this time. Cooler
temperatures are expected heading into the weekend with highs
back to the 50s and 60s, and northern Missouri`s first chance of
freezing temperatures Saturday morning.

Monday:

Todays weather will be under the influence  of upper ridging that
has been nearly stationary as remnants of Ian block progression of
the flow. Surface high pressure to the northeast will allow for some
light southeast winds today and temperatures warming to near 80
again today. Overnight temperatures are expected to fall to near 50
across much of the area with some scattered clouds moving overhead.

Tuesday:

More of the same is expected for Tuesday with very little
change in the upper pattern. Highs on Tuesday are expected to be the
warmest of the week with most reaching the low 80s (roughly 10
degrees above normal for this time of year). By Tuesday evening,
expect a shortwave moving through the northern Plains to allow
for some increasing moisture and cloud cover moving overhead. This
will keep low temperatures Tuesday night just a bit warmer with
most in the mid to upper 50s overnight.

Rest of the week:

We will see a bit of a pattern shift as we head into Wednesday as
ridging shifts east of our area and a shortwave moves north of the
area. Currently expect the dry forecast to remain, however some
non zero rain chances will exist on Wednesday, especially in
northern Missouri. By Thursday the shortwave will be absorbed into
much deeper troughing over the Great Lakes region. A cold front
will move through Thursday evening allowing for temperatures to
fall into the upper 30s to low 40s by Friday morning. High
temperatures on Friday will be notably cooler with most of the
area only reaching the upper 50s. Friday night is expected to be
the coldest night of the season for most locations. Northern
Missouri had a good chances of seeing the first below freezing
temperatures. The rest of the area will still dip down into the
mid to upper 30s, but for now, the first freeze isn`t in the
forecast yet for the KC Metro. Cool fall temps will remain on
Saturday with highs near 60 expected across the area, but close to
normal temperatures quickly return Sunday as southerly surface
winds return and temperatures warm to the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT MON OCT 3 2022

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with winds out
of the southeast to the south generally under 10 knots. Winds may
trend more to the south later tomorrow morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...HB
Aviation...CDB


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