Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 032150
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
250 PM PDT Mon Oct 3 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry weather is expected for the next week
across the Northwest California interior underneath a building
ridge of high pressure. Coastal areas see bouts of cloudiness and
fog each day, potentially less persistently later in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Very little change in the current weather pattern
as a ridge of high pressure settling over the west coast and
thermal trough over the interior. This will result in persistent
northerly winds along the coast, warm temperatures across the
interior, and stratus beneath a marine inversion. The northerly
winds will bank clouds along the coast north of Cape Mendocino
while areas south may see more sunshine this week as downsloping
brings dry air into the marine layer. By the afternoon hours each
day the increased mixing and onshore turn in winds will likely
also allow for some clearing north of the Cape as well. So the
last few days of gloomy coast side weather may see gradual
improvement through the week. With the general pattern remaining
stagnant this week temperatures will only fluctuate a bit with
highs in coastal areas in the mid 60s and interior valleys in the
80s and low 90s. The one main question mark in the forecast is
the potential for some late season monsoonal type moisture to make
its way up California toward our region this coming weekend into
early next week. There remains a lot of uncertainty as to where
this moisture is headed and chances in the NBM are nearly zero at
this point. Still, something to watch in the week ahead.


&&

.AVIATION...Expansive stratus deck continues across much of the
coastal waters this afternoon. The weak trough offshore has become
diffuse, allowing cloud-level flow to move more onshore. As a
result, clouds have moved back to the coast S of Cape Mendocino. In
addition, this should start to halt the erosion on the E side of the
cloud bank N of the cape. The marine layer remains at about 2500
feet deep at the McKinleyville profiler, but the marine layer has
begun to become shallower to the S at Bodega Bay. As a result, low
clouds are not expected to advect into KUKI. However, there is an
indication that some low clouds and fog may develop again late
tonight due to radiative processes. For now, have just included a
low scattered deck and a slight reduction to visibility. At the
North Coast terminals, expect clouds to thicken and lower as they
spread farther inland overnight. There is the possibility of light
offshore flow later tonight, and this could act to slow the advance
of the stratus. Surface winds will continue to be light.


&&

.MARINE...The low pressure trough well offshore has become diffuse.
This will allow winds to become more uniformly northerly tonight,
although speeds will remain light. Wind speeds will increase from S
to N early Wednesday as high pressure rebuilds offshore and a
thermal trough re-develops over the interior. Advisory-level
conditions are possible across the outer waters by Wednesday
(starting first over the S waters). Short period seas will be low
through Tuesday, then begin to build in response to the increasing
winds on Wednesday. There will be several mid to long period swell
trains that will act to produce some confused seas through
Thursday.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
None.
&&

$$

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