Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 012340
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
540 PM MDT Sat Oct 1 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 208 PM MDT Sat Oct 1 2022

An active week ahead across the Borderland as a slow moving upper
trough brings daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Severe
storms are not expected, but some areas could see some locally
heavy rain. Temperatures will be near to slightly below average
through the week due to the clouds and precip around the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 208 PM MDT Sat Oct 1 2022

Currently, there are a few showers and thunderstorms across the
Sacramento mountains with a few weak echos seen on radar across Gila
Region and the lowlands mainly east of the Rio Grande. These showers
and thunderstorms will continue through the afternoon and evening
hours across Sacramento Mountains and the Gila Region/Black Range
area where there will be better instability. A few weak showers and
an isolated thunderstorm will be possible in the lowlands as we head
into the evening hours as a low hangs across the far southwest. For
tonight, any active weather should linger until around midnight
before diminishing. The atmosphere by then will become relatively
stable casing the storms to dissipate. The winds will be light and
from the southeast. There maybe some stable layer clouds suspended
in the air that will hover across the Borderland; thus, the low
temperatures on Sunday morning will be above the normal for most of
the area. For Sunday, this low across the far southwest will open up
into a trough and begin to move northward as it gets absorbed into a
trough of low pressure to our north. As this happens, showers and
thunderstorms will be possible to areas mainly west of the Rio
Grande plus the Sacramento Mountains. The PWAT values will be
between 0.60 and 0.90 inches with the dew point temperatures in the
40s. Due to this, do not expect widespread showers and storms nor
much in the way of heavy rainfall. The instability will be similar
to that of today with greater values across the mountains. The winds
will be generally light 10 to 20 mph and from the east-southeast.
With this trough in place, clouds overhead and a flow from the
east, the high temperatures will be a couple of degrees below the
climatological normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 208 PM MDT Sat Oct 1 2022

Unusual pattern for early October continues in the long term. The
cutoff low that`s sitting over the UT/WY/ID region will start to
lift out and become phased with the weak low sitting over NW
Mexico. This system will then slowly move through the Northern
Plains for the first part of the week with an elongated positively
tilted trough extending through the area. There will be a daily
chance for showers and thunderstorms across the area as there is
some modest(for early Oct) moisture lingering around southern NM
and west TX. Not a lot of instability or shear around, so severe
threat looks limited, but storms will be slow moving and could
produce some locally heavy rain. Temperatures will be a little
tricky, especially highs, since there will likely be a fair amount
of cloud cover, low level easterly winds and a lowering sun angle,
think highs will generally be slightly below average. Sure there
will be some lowland areas that may struggle to reach much above
lower 70s if clouds linger all day with on and off precip.

Toward the end of the period, the main trough moves east of the
area, but there will continue to be a weak low sitting over the
northern Gulf of California. With NW flow off to the NE, the
region will be in an upper level deformation zone which will keep
the chance for precip going, but think coverage will be less than
Mon-Wed. Temperatures will continue to run a little below normal,
but not tapping any cold air aloft, so even precip in the
mountains will be in the form of rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 PM MDT Sat Oct 1 2022

VFR conditions will generally prevail through the forecast. Some
showers/storms around KTCS to start the period with possible
lowering CIGs and VIS if a cell moves overhead; VCTS until 1z.
Addition of SH/TSRA cannot be entirely ruled out into tonight for
all TAF sites. SCT090-100 thin out tonight with BKN-OVC250 before
mid clouds return tomorrow afternoon. SSE winds near 10kts in
early evening, becoming light overnight. Breezier winds arrive in
afternoon with gusts for TAF sites excluding KELP.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 208 PM MDT Sat Oct 1 2022

Some moisture will be in place on Sunday that will aide in a few
showers and thunderstorm developments throughout the day but mostly
during the afternoon hours. The winds will be below the criteria
with the temperatures below average. Overnight recovery will be
very good. For Monday, moisture will decrease slightly with
excellent overnight recovery. The winds will be light with the
temperatures continuing to be on the cool side. For the rest of
the period, moisture will increase each day through Thursday with
the winds similar in magnitude to this weekend (5 to 15kts) and
the temperatures cooling off a few degrees each consecutive day.
Due to this, there will be no fire weather concerns across the
entire zones throughout the period.

The min RHs will be between 20 and 30% in the lowlands and between
40 and 60% in the mountains through Monday. The min RHs will then
increase to between 30 and 40% in the lowlands and between 50 and
80% in the mountains through Thursday. The ventilation rates will be
poor to very good on Sunday and Thursday and poor to good the rest
of the days in the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  63  85  62  83 /  10  10  10  10
Sierra Blanca            54  78  54  79 /   0  10   0   0
Las Cruces               58  82  56  79 /  10  10  10  10
Alamogordo               57  82  55  80 /  10  20   0  10
Cloudcroft               41  58  40  57 /  10  30  10  20
Truth or Consequences    57  80  55  78 /  10  20  10  30
Silver City              55  73  56  73 /  10  20  20  30
Deming                   57  81  56  81 /  10  10  20  20
Lordsburg                59  81  58  81 /  20  10  20  20
West El Paso Metro       63  83  63  82 /  10  10  10  10
Dell City                55  82  54  82 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             57  85  55  84 /   0  10   0  10
Loma Linda               56  76  55  75 /  10  10  10  10
Fabens                   59  84  59  82 /  10  10  10  10
Santa Teresa             59  82  59  80 /  10  10  10  10
White Sands HQ           59  82  58  80 /  10  10  10  10
Jornada Range            59  80  54  79 /  10  10  10  10
Hatch                    57  81  55  80 /  10  10  10  20
Columbus                 59  82  57  81 /  10  10  20  10
Orogrande                58  81  55  79 /  10  10  10  10
Mayhill                  46  68  44  69 /  10  20  10  20
Mescalero                46  69  44  69 /  10  30  10  30
Timberon                 46  68  44  67 /  10  20  10  10
Winston                  51  72  49  71 /  20  30  20  40
Hillsboro                54  77  53  77 /  10  20  20  30
Spaceport                57  80  55  79 /  10  10  10  20
Lake Roberts             48  72  48  69 /  20  30  20  40
Hurley                   56  79  53  75 /  10  10  20  20
Cliff                    52  82  51  78 /  20  20  20  40
Mule Creek               54  76  52  74 /  30  30  20  40
Faywood                  57  77  55  74 /  10  10  20  20
Animas                   56  82  55  82 /  20  10  20  20
Hachita                  56  80  54  80 /  20  10  20  20
Antelope Wells           55  80  54  79 /  20  20  20  10
Cloverdale               53  76  53  76 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...39-Aronson


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