Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 031708
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1208 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 143 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

Mesoanalysis/Synopsis: Mid to upper level ridging continues to
persist from western Ontario south and west into the Texas
Panhandle. The downstream surface pressure ridge connected to the
feature is apparent from the Saint Lawrence River Valley west-
southwest through the central Mississippi Valley and ultimately the
Upper Texas Coast in the 1 AM obs. This is translating to
predominantly calm or light northeasterly surface flow across the
region. Hurricane Orlene continues to progress up the western
Mexican Pacific coast, and remains forecast to make landfall this
afternoon/evening in Sinaloa. With a southern stream speed max
continuing to hold to the storm`s northeast over northern Mexico and
southern Texas, upper level moisture and attendant cloud cover
should continue to advect over the area through the period. The
upper level low tied to Orlene will become sheared off in the
aforementioned speed maximum through tomorrow morning and afternoon.

Today: Expect a nearly identical forecast to yesterday afternoon.
High temperatures will range from the low 80s in Hill Country to the
mid/upper 80s elsewhere. Under continued influence of the ridge axis
discussed above, east-northeast winds should hold dew points in the
40s along and east of US 281. Slightly muggier conditions can be
expected in the Rio Grande Plains, where southeasterly surface flow
along the western periphery of the ridge will allow afternoon dew
points to reach the mid-upper 50s.

Tonight: Thanks to cloud cover continuing to persist overhead,
slightly milder low temps in the upper 50s can be expected
throughout Hill Country and the I-35 corridor. With higher moisture
in place, expect lows to remain at and just above 60 in the Rio
Grande Plains and Winter Garden.

Tomorrow: With Orlene rapidly becoming sheared off and swept to the
northeast in the southern stream jet streak through the afternoon
hours, upper level moisture should begin to trend downward by later
in the day. A downward trend in the mid-upper level cloud coverage
will occur concurrently, which should allow highs to be a touch
warmer than today. Mid to upper 80s are currently forecasted in all
locations outside of Hill Country. A few locations along and east of
I-35 could crack the 90 degree mark by day`s end.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 143 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

A trough is forecast to deepen through the northern Plains and Great
Lakes Thursday and Friday. At the same time an upper level low is
forecast to cut off across Baja California and remain there through
Saturday before potentially opening Sunday. Weak ridging aloft is
forecast to be in place across South Central Texas Wednesday and
Thursday, then flatten with upper level flow becoming more
southwesterly. In the low levels, a weak cold front is forecast to
remain just north of the area Thursday and Friday. A secondary front
may push into the area Saturday, although low confidence exists on
how far south and west the front makes it.

An increase in low and mid level moisture off the western Gulf does
look to take place late in the week in South and Deep South Texas.
Some higher precipitable water content of around 1-1.5" may work into
CWA Friday night and Saturday ahead of the weak cold front, then
confidence decreases Sunday on moisture profiles given the low
confidence on where the front ends up. There are some low
opportunities for isolated showers Saturday and Sunday, mainly across
southern and western areas of the CWA where better moisture pooling
may potentially be located. In addition, it`s possible weak embedded
upper level energy, in the aforementioned southwest flow aloft ahead
of the cut off low, as well as modest upper level jet streak, could
be positioned over the region to assist with forcing. For now we have
followed with the NBM PoPs, which are low and mentionable mainly
across the southwest CWA Saturday and western CWA Sunday.

Temperatures do look to modify slightly warmer Wednesday through
Friday. Lower confidence on temperatures exists over the weekend,
tied to the aforementioned cold front and cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

Continued periods of SCT-BKN cirrus above FL200 are forecast through
the next 24 to 30 hours. Light winds largely out of the E to SSE
today will diminish to light and variable or calm overnight, then
pick back up out of the E to SE again at around 5-9 knots tomorrow.
High cloud cover will gradually dissipate towards the end of the 30
hour TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              61  90  59  89 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  58  89  58  90 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     61  90  60  92 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            58  88  58  89 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           62  86  63  87 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        57  88  58  89 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             61  89  60  90 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        59  89  58  90 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   59  90  58  91 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       64  88  62  89 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           64  90  64  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Quigley
Long-Term...76
Aviation...KCW


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