Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 031459
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
959 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 952 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022
A few pockets of radar returns showing up this morning as high
based showers continue to drift across the region. Mostly virga
though some echos in south central ND appear to be strong enough
to reach the ground with 30 to 40 dBZ values. Will see this
isolated coverage persist today with high clouds and filtered sun.
The above normal temps will continue also with highs in the low to
mid 70s.

UPDATE Issued at 610 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

Shower activity has started to push further into southern Canada,
with isolated chances continuing for the valley towards Devils
Lake through the mid morning hours. More chances for isolated
showers and a rumble of thunder this afternoon and evening.
Otherwise, forecast remains on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

Light shower activity continues to move across eastern ND and NW MN
this morning and slowly dissipate as it heads into Canada. We expect
little to no impacts through Tuesday evening as the upper level
trough continues to shift east across the plains. As the trough
shifts across the region showers will be isolated to scattered at
times, with a chance of a few rumbles of thunder. Shower activity is
associated with the warm air advection ahead of the system, which in
turn continues to bring warm temperatures across the region. Highs
today and tomorrow reach into the 60s to lower 70s. Otherwise,
morning lows on Tuesday are expected to be in the upper 40s to mid
50s.

The cold front begins to approach the region Tuesday afternoon, with
shower activity expected ahead of the frontal boundary. A few
rumbles of thunder will be possible at times Tuesday afternoon, as
CAPE values are sitting on the lower end around 250 J/kg. Any
precipitation that falls Today and Tuesday will be light.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

In the long range period impacts will be related to a strong cold
front moving into the region late Wednesday. This may bring a period
of windy conditions (near advisory) followed by what may be the
coldest air mass of the fall season so far (likely killing freeze).

Large scale trends will feature the mid/upper trough responsible for
our current pattern shifting east of our CWA, while a secondary
negatively titled upper trough drops out of the arctic regions late
in the day Wednesday/Wednesday night. This will eventually deepen
into a longwave trough across the eastern CONUS as a blocking ridge
upstream reestablishes over the western CONUS into southwest Canada
and northwest flow would then dominate. General evolution have
strong consensus between ensemble systems, though smaller variances
may impact how smaller scale features evolve/track especially in the
later periods when NW flow develops.

A strong cold front arrives with the system late Wednesday and 6hr
pressure rises 8-10MB, a period of strong CAA, and increasing
northerly unidirectional flow down the RRV may result in near
advisory winds. Conceptually the strongest winds would most likely
occur immediately behind the front and currently peak mixed layer
winds are right at or under 39kt. There is a very light precip
signal with this system mainly in north central MN, but a few
showers may occur in the Lake of the Woods region as the front
passes. Timing may play a role in whether a few snowflakes briefly
mix in with this light shower activity (no signal for accumulation
at this time). Behind this front there is also a very strong signal
for strong surface high pressure and 850MB temps around or even
lower than -5C by Thursday. ECMWF EFI highlights the likely of colder
max/mins and NBM continues to show strong grouping towards a
widespread hard freeze by Friday morning and colder locations may
actually fall into the upper teens under ideal radiational conditions
(based on 25th percentile).

After we transition more to northwest flow aloft late in the weekend
rising heights and lower level east-southwest flow should allow for
the recovery of temperatures back towards seasonal ranges. Dry
conditions are currently favored by consensus, though that type of
pattern still raises the potential for progressive shortwave
troughs which are responsible for some larger spread in temp ranges
and outlying chances for rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

Very isolated showers continue to push NE through the valley
affecting DVL, TVF, GFK, and FAR this morning. This continues
through 16z, with a BKN cloud deck remaining across the region
throughout the TAF period. Another round of isolated to scattered
showers are possible after 23z through 09z as an upper level
trough continues to push east through the region. Near the end of
the TAF period ceilings start to drop slowly toward 7000-8000
feet.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...Spender
LONG TERM...DJR
AVIATION...Spender


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