Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 012101

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
201 PM MST Sat Oct 1 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Daily chances remain for scattered showers and
thunderstorms as moisture lingers across Arizona through early
next week, especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim.
Coverage will become more isolated as we move through the week.


.DISCUSSION...Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed
across portions of northern Arizona this afternoon with the
majority of activity near Show Low, Prescott, and around
Flagstaff. As we progress through the afternoon and into the
evening hours, coverage should increase mainly along the Mogollon
Rim and northward into the Four Corners region. Main concern at
this time is for brief periods of heavy rainfall with any of
these storms, which could result in flash flooding. The sounding
from earlier this morning in Bellemont indicated decent MU CAPE of
around 700 J/kg, which would be sufficient enough to have a few
storms produce strong wind gusts, lightning, and some small hail.
Isolated to scattered activity looks to continue overnight across
northeast Arizona and the Four Corners region as low pressure
towards the north begins to lift.

With a mid to upper-level low pressure system towards the north
over Montana and a subtle, weak surface low centered over the
southern Arizona/Mexico border, this pattern setup will result in
enhanced southerly surface to mid-level flow, allowing for an
increase in moisture for Sunday. Both the ECMWF Ens and the GEFS
suggest increased coverage of showers and storms during this time
with activity expected across much of northern Arizona and into
the Four Corners region. As both low pressure systems lift to the
east-northeast on Monday, enough atmospheric lift and moisture
will remain available leading to another round of scattered
showers and thunderstorms across much of northern Arizona for the
afternoon and early evening.

Moisture and storm activity dwindles as we head into the middle of
next week with the presence of drier, northwest flow. Kept
precipitation chances confined to the eastern Mogollon Rim and the
White Mountains for Tuesday and Wednesday with the remainder of
northern Arizona dry.

For the end of next week, ensemble trends suggest a gradual
increase in moisture with much of the Southwest remaining somewhat
active. Confidence is low to moderate at this time with the
synoptic pattern not as clear.

As for temperatures and wind through next week, light afternoon
winds are expected during this time with seasonal temperatures.
Overnight low temperatures will be on the chillier side for the
middle of next week thanks to the presence of drier air, however,
not expecting any widespread freezes at this time.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z TAF package...Mainly VFR conditions are
expected for the TAF period. Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA
developing through the afternoon and evening, mainly along and north
of a KGCN-KCMR-KSOW line with isolated activity farther south. Brief
MVFR conditions along with gusty, erratic winds will be possible in
and around SHRA/TSRA. Winds remain light outside of storms. From 06Z
to 18Z Sun - best chances for continued SHRA/TSRA shift to areas
northeast of a KPGA-KSOW line. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Seasonal temperatures persist through Monday with
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Mainly light
southwesterly winds Sunday, shifting to northwesterly Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...Light east-northeast winds. A chance of
showers and thunderstorms continues, mainly in eastern Arizona.






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