Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 031628
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1128 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Tuesday/

Another pleasant early October day is on tap for North and
Central Texas, as shortwave ridging continues across the Southern
Plains. Pacific moisture will continue to filter into the region,
resulting in an occasionally dense field of cirrus, particularly
across Central Texas. Aside from this exception, skies should
remain mostly clear, allowing temperatures to warm into the mid to
upper 80s again this afternoon.

Moisture will see a slight increase today and into tomorrow,
thanks to the return of southeasterly winds. However, this will
mostly have an effect on our low temperatures, with Tuesday
morning lows expected to be just a few degrees warmer than we`ve
seen the past few days. Similar weather is expected Tuesday
afternoon, with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

An elevated fire weather threat will continue, as fuels remain
dry and relative humidity falls to 15-30% both afternoons.
However, wind speeds below 10 mph will preclude a greater threat.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 240 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022/
/Tuesday night through Sunday/

The weather pattern will remain fairly stagnant the first half of
the  week with ridging aloft and dry air through a deep layer of
the atmosphere. The result will be mostly sunny days, clear nights
and a large diurnal temperature spread. Lows Tuesday night will
range from the mid 50s to around 60 and highs Wednesday will be
in the 80s except for a few lower 90s in Central Texas.

The upper ridge will deamplify while shifting towards the East
Coast the second half of the week with a deepening trough across
the center of the CONUS and an amplifying ridge across the West
Coast. The main energy with the upper trough will remain displaced
well to the north across the Great Lakes and Upper Mid West but
as the trough axis moves east it will send a cold front southward
across the Plains late in the week. A thin layer of moisture near
the surface will gradually make it into North and Central Texas
ahead of the front Wednesday night/Thursday resulting in slightly
warmer lows (low to mid 60s) and a few more daytime clouds
Thursday. Light southerly flow ahead of the front will likely
turn to the north near the Red River Thursday afternoon with the
passage of a pre frontal trough. The actual cold front is progged
to move across North and Central Texas Friday/Friday night. The
absence of large scale forcing for ascent and very limited
moisture will hinder precipitation development along the front.
Drier and cooler air will filter in behind the front, keeping
highs Saturday and Sunday generally in the lower and middle 80s,
except for near the Red River where temperatures will struggle to
get out of the 70s. The reinforcement of drier air and slightly
breezier conditions will keep the threat for wildfire starts
elevated through the weekend.

There are still indications in both the GFS and ECMWF that some rain
may return to portions of the forecast area about a week from now
associated with an upper trough approaching from the Desert
Southwest. More details on this potential for rain will be
provided in later forecast discussions.

79

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR and east to southeast winds less than 10 knots will continue.
No aviation impacts are expected.

Barnes

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    85  59  86  60  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                88  56  90  58  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               85  55  85  54  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              85  53  86  55  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            85  54  86  54  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              85  61  86  62  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             85  56  86  57  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           87  58  87  58  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              88  56  89  58  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       86  54  88  55  91 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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