Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 012323
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
623 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022

This morning`s sprinkles moved out fairly quickly, and only a few
high clouds have persisted into the afternoon, mainly over
eastern areas. Southeast winds have picked up and occasional gusts
to around 30 MPH are expected to continue through sunset.
Tonight, a few more midlevel clouds may move through the area, and
a few additional sprinkles cannot be ruled out. Overnight lows
are expected to be around 50 degrees.

Sunday will be very similar to today...highs in the 80s, gusty
south-southeast winds, and mostly clear skies. One subtle
difference is models showing a bit deeper mixing during the
afternoon, resulting in lower humidity. As a result a large
portion of the area will likely have near-critical fire weather
conditions. Southwestern zones will likely see relative humidity
dip below 20 percent. That said, confidence and areal coverage are
not high enough to warrant a Red Flag Warning at this time.
Regardless, it will not be a good day to do outdoor burning.

The upper low that is hanging out over the Rockies today finally
starts to push eastward late Sunday night into Monday morning. As
it does, this will push a cold front towards the area and bring a
chance for a few showers to our west. The daytime on Monday will
still remain warm and mostly dry, but chances for rain (and
perhaps even a few t-storms) increase Monday evening as the front
and upper low push across the area.

Late Monday night into Tuesday morning will be the highest chance
for precipitation, with decreasing coverage and intensity Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Tuesday will be cooler and closer to our
climatological normals (highs in the low 70s). The seasonably
pleasant weather then continues on Wednesday, with only a slight
chance for a shower or two on the back side of the departing
system.

A stronger push of cold air then arrives on Thursday, resulting
in high temperatures in the 50s and 60s on Thursday and Friday.
More notably, there is increasing confidence that temperatures
will dip into the mid to low 30s Thursday and Friday nights. The
latest NBM percentiles indicate a high probability for frost (and
potentially even subfreezing temperatures in our north). That
said, there is some remaining uncertainty given potential for
cloud cover and possibly even some light precipitation.

Next weekend and into early next week, model ensembles generally
agree that temperatures will warm back to near-normal (highs in
the 70s and lows in the 40s). The overall dry pattern is also
expected to continue.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Monday)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022

A weak LLJ is forecast to setup tonight but the wind speed
difference isn`t enough to put a TAF remark in, so figure it
doesn`t hurt to put a mention of it here. SFC winds will be a
little gusty at the start of the TAF, but should settle down
after sunset and remain SSE through the period. The winds will
pickup again around mid-day and gust into the low 20s. Models
have it dry at the SFC and only saw a little mid-level moisture
overnight, so expecting VFR through the period.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Beda


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