Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 031645

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
Issued by National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1045 AM MDT Mon Oct 3 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 410 AM MDT Mon Oct 3 2022

Overview: Broad cyclonic flow aloft will prevail over the Tri-
State area in this period.. as an upper level low -- presently
situated over eastern Montana -- gradually progresses eastward
across the Dakotas (Today through Tuesday night).

Expect increasing cloud cover.. and an increasing potential for
convection.. as small amplitude waves (rounding the base of the
aforementioned upper low) traverse the Rockies and progress ENE-NE
across the High Plains. With the strongest upper forcing relegated
well north of the Tri-State area (in closer proximity to the upper
low).. and a rather poor/lackluster thermodynamic environment in
place over the region.. severe convection is not anticipated.
Simulated reflectivity forecasts via the HRRR/NAM NEST suggest
that convection may be episodic in nature -- in a forcing regime
characterized by episodic DPVA.. this seems reasonable -- with
the greatest overall potential (and coverage) late this aft/eve
through mid-day Tuesday (~00-18Z Tue) -- followed by a gradual
west-east clearing trend late Tue aft/eve and Tue night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 215 AM MDT Mon Oct 3 2022

Upper low moving across the northern plains on Wednesday will be
followed by northwest flow, which remains in place through the
remainder of the long term period. An embedded shortwave trough in
that flow will bring a chance of showers and cooler temperatures
for Thursday night and Friday. Temperatures may be cold enough
late Thursday night/early Friday morning for a rain/snow mix in
far northern areas, the Highway 34 corridor from Colorado to
Nebraska, but no accumulation is expected. Frost and freeze
conditions will be possible both Friday and Saturday mornings,
with lows in the mid 30s currently forecast, some low lying areas
may be a few degrees colder. Temperatures on Friday will not warm
much at all with clouds and showers, with highs in the 50s.
Temperatures gradually return to near normal for Saturday through
Monday as the northwest flow weakens and is replaced by an upper
ridge. No precipitation expected at this time during that period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1042 AM MDT Mon Oct 3 2022

VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow with increasing mid
level cloudiness this evening into the overnight period. Winds
will generally be from a southerly direction through tonight
shifting to the northwest tomorrow behind a cold front.




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