Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 222315
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
515 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2019

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday
Issued at 142 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2019

Clear and quiet weather through Saturday. Focus in the short term
is on temperatures and moderate wind gusts tomorrow.

This afternoon, surface high pressure continued to build into
southwest Wisconsin and drier air had filtered into the forecast
area. As a result clouds managed to dissipate by around 18Z with
clear skies expected through the rest of the afternoon.

Tonight, skies remain clear, but a light SW wind will help keep
temperatures from plummeting. Lows will be in the low to middle
20s, coolest across the north and warmest near Lake Michigan.

Saturday, winds increase a bit with gusts to 15 to 25 mph through
the midday. A few high clouds may stream across from time to time
as a mid-level shortwave passes north of the state, but overall a
mostly sunny day is forecast. Highs will be in the upper 30s
across the Northwoods, and in the lower 40s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Friday
Issued at 142 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2019

Weak upper systems passing north of the state may bring a chance
of rain or snow showers across the north Sunday into Monday
evening.

Attention then turns to a significant winter storm expected to
move across the central United States Tuesday and Tuesday night.
The first piece of energy and 500mb trough moves across the
region. Models continue to waffle on the storm track and the
northward extent of the precipitation shield into northern
Wisconsin. The GFS model has shifted a tad bit further south
compared to the model run last night. ECMWF continues to be the
most consistent model with the storm track and is farthest north
with the precipitation shield. The Canadian/GFS model would leave
our far north mainly dry. The models will more than likely to
change over the next several days, thus will continue to highlight
the uncertainty in the storm track and precipitation/snowfall
amounts in the Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO).

As next week progresses, the main 500mb trough across the
southwestern United States will dig and then gradually eject
northeast by the weekend of Nov 30/Dec 1. Low confidence in the
small chances of rain/snow on Wednesday. Dry conditions are
expected on Thanksgiving Day with highs in the 30s. A weak impulse
is expected to bring a chance of light rain or snow on Friday.
High temperatures are expected to be at or slightly above normal
during the period.
&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 510 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2019

VFR flight conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with
only patchy high clouds anticipated. The only significant concern
is LLWS, which is anticipated at the RHI/AUW/CWA TAF sites late
tonight through mid-morning Saturday. West surface winds will
gust to 15 to 20 kts by late Saturday morning at all TAF sites.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KLJ
LONG TERM......Eckberg
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch


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