Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 280833
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
333 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Thursday
Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

There will be much less cloudiness and wind today and tonight and
surface high pressure drifts slowly across Wisconsin. High
temperatures will be around five degrees cooler than normal for
this time of the year.

A frost or freeze is possible over much of the area tonight, with
the exception of areas near the lake or bay. Lows will be about
ten degrees colder than usual.

Winds will become southerly as the surface high moves slowly away
Thursday, with some increase in high cloudiness and temperatures.
Highs will be just a few degrees below normal.

.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Tuesday
Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Quiet conditions with above normal temperatures are anticipated
throughout this forecast period, with minimal chances for
precipitation.

Thursday night through Saturday...The state will be sandwiched
between a surface high to the east and south/southwest flow to the
west Thursday night through much of Saturday. Aloft, a broad upper-
level ridge will develop over the central CONUS as a result of an
upper-level low residing over the northern Rockies and the remnants
of Hurricane Ian lifting into the southern Appalachian region. This
leaves the forecast area with a dry forecast and warming
temperatures. High temperatures will be in the low to middle 60s for
Friday, and middle 60s to upper 60s for Saturday.

Rest of the extended...Rounding the top of the upper-level ridge
Saturday night into Sunday, model guidance has a quick-moving
shortwave and weak surface boundary moving across the western Great
Lakes region, that generates a brief period of showers across the
forecast area. Although there is better agreement with this feature
in the 00z models, weak forcing and limited moisture may minimize
the shower coverage over the forecast area. Anticipate later
forecasts to have slight chance PoPs added, but for now, continued
the blend of models solution with a dry forecast. Upper-level
ridging briefly builds back over the region for early next week
before dissolving from the eastward progression of the previously
mentioned upper-level low over the northern Rockies, bringing
another chance for showers midweek.
&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 139 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

MVFR ceilings east of a GRB to OSH line will exit by
sunrise. Lake effect clouds with bases between 2500 and 3500 ft
north of an IMT to RHI should dissipate by 15z today. Otherwise
mostly clear skies, light winds and good visibility are expected
today through Thursday.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for WIZ005-010>012-
018-019-030-035-036.

Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for WIZ013-020-021-
031-037-038-045-073-074.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......Kruk
AVIATION.......RDM


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