Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam

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FXPQ50 PGUM 012104
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
704 AM ChST Sun Oct 2 2022

.Marianas Synopsis...
Mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers are present across the
Marianas this morning. Occasional flashes of lightning are indicated
west of the islands. Gentle to moderate trade winds persist across
the region, with combined seas of 3 to 4 feet at the buoys.

&&

.Discussion...
Not much change in the forecast the next few days as a lackluster
pattern of weak trade disturbances remains in place. Scattered
showers this morning will diminish to isolated this afternoon and
evening as one such disturbance moves out to the west. Showers should
pick up to low-end scattered again after midnight as the next little
trough in the trades ripples through Monday. This pattern should
persist through most of the week, with just enough action to keep
POPs at 30 pct. Models hint at a drier period Friday or Saturday,
but for now will keep the chance of showers in the forecast through
Saturday in view of uncertainty at that time range.

&&

.Marine...
Moderate trades are expected to diminish by Tuesday, but seas should
remain between 3 and 5 feet for at least the next 5 days. The rip
risk will be moderate along east facing reefs, and will likely
become moderate along north facing reefs as well by Wednesday as
north swell builds to 3 feet.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
A fragmented ITCZ continues to bring intermittent shower activity
across the region this morning. Altimetry and scatterometry data
indicate seas between 4 and 6 feet and moderate trade winds (10 to 15
kt). A broad, southwest-northeast oriented trough generated strong
thunderstorms that moved through Majuro`s southern waters overnight,
but has since stratified out during the early morning hours. Showers
and thunderstorms are to build in once again around noon as the
trough continues to propagate westward. Other than that, much of the
forecast stayed intact. Pohnpei will see a few good rounds of showers
and a few thunderstorms today, but most of the action will scrape by
to the north of Kosrae. It is not until later this evening, when
showers from the approaching trough are expected to build into
Kosrae. This unsettled weather pattern will continue through most
of next week, where scattered to numerous showers will be
intermittent in response to fluctuations in the ITCZ.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
A tropical upper-tropospheric trough (TUTT) drapes to the north of
Yap and Palau, supporting shower and thunderstorm development (mainly
between Yap and the Marianas). At the surface, a trade-wind trough
continues to generate spotty showers over Yap and Palau and another
trough, inbound for Chuuk, will bring widely scattered to numerous
showers and isolated thunderstorms through tonight. The TUTT looks to
weaken and lift north over the next couple days, so this will no
longer be a concern for Yap and Palau. Instead, multiple troughs will
provide off-and-on showers throughout the week. Chuuk will also see
episodes of showery weather through most of the week, related to
fluctuations of ITCZ convection in eastern Micronesia.

Gentle to occasionally moderate winds are expected over the next
several days. Combined seas look to stay between 3 and 5 feet,
composed mainly of a primary trade swell and a minor, long-period
north swell that is expected to build slightly around midweek.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.

&&

$$

Marianas: Middlebrooke
Micronesia: Cruz


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