Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 020255 AAB
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
1055 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the north through Wednesday
providing for sunny skies and cool crisp nights. A cold front
looks to approach thereafter bringing a chance of showers
beginning Thursday night or Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Update...Substantial clearing has developed between cirrus from
the remnants of Ian and cloudiness associated with the stronger
baroclinic zone offshore. That has allowed for some radiational
cooling...and I have nudged temps down as a result. This is
being offset somewhat by increasing northerly flow as high
pressure builds to the north. I have added some patchy fog
wording in the clear slot where radiative effects are most
likely.

Previous discussion...Sfc ridge to our N is wining the battle
this afternoon as 500 MB closed low that merged with Ian, drifts
SE through the Carolinas. As such we are seeing clearing late
today from the NW, with nay lingering SHRA/sprinkles in SE NH
ending shortly. Probably all but srn NH will clear out for a
short time this evening, but back door cold front dropping SSW
will cross the CWA during the latter part of tonight, and will
likely see a period of stratus or stratocu com in right behind
the front during the pre-dawn hours. This is when the NNE winds
will pick up as well. The timing is such that it is unlikely to
cool sown too much behind the front and lows range from 35-40 in
the mtns to the mid to upper 40s in the S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday will see some lingering clouds in the S early associated
with the front, but those will shift south and skies will become
generally sunny, although it will brisk and cool with NNE winds
gusting to around 25 mph at times, thanks to PG between sfc
high to the NW and remnant Ian to our SE. Highs mostly in the
50s.

The question for Sunday night is how cold it gets, and more
specifically how cold it gets with or without wind. Air mass is
cold enough to drop temps temps into the upper 20s in the mtns,
perhaps colder in sheltered areas, but growing season has ended
there. The timing looks like the gradient holds across much of
the srn 2/3 of the CWA late, and this will will keep a light
wind up, and although temps may fall to the mid to upper 30s,
frost is not favored outside of the most sheltered areas. Should
the winds diminish a little sooner, than frost is a better bet
in more places. Anyway, there’s still time to look at another
model suite. Otherwise it’ll be mainly clear.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will remain in control for most of the upcoming week
with little if any precip expected until late week when a cold front
approaches and crosses through New England, bringing with it a
better chance of showers and perhaps a few flakes in the higher
elevations.

After the chilly start on Monday morning, very dry air in place will
allow temperatures to rebound nicely into the upper 50s for highs
with light winds and plenty of sunshine. However, once the sun goes
down on Monday evening, temperatures will drop off rather rapidly
with excellent radiational cooling conditions due to high pressure
being nearly overhead. For this reason, have stuck closer to the
cooler MOS guidance rather than the NBM, and frost/freeze headlines
are looking like a good bet away from the coast for Monday night
into Tuesday morning with lows ranging from the upper 20s to lower
30s. However, there still could be a frost threat toward the coast
with some lows in the mid 30s.

A couple of showers will be possible close to the coast early
Wednesday, but otherwise dry conditions will continue with
temperatures following a moderating trend toward midweek as a
shortwave trough digs into the Great Lakes. This trough will head
for New England toward late week and send a cold front through the
region. Models are a little slower with the frontal approach and
passage than they were yesterday, now suggesting Friday with the
better potential for showers. So with this in mind, will remove PoPs
for Thursday, scale them back for Thursday night, and advertise the
higher PoPs for Friday. Cooler temps will follow the front to start
off next weekend with upslope rain or snow showers lingering across
the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...Mainly VFR through the period, although will have
to watch a short period of MVFR cigs at KLEB, and maybe KCON
during the pre-dawn hours as cold front moves through. Gusty NNE
winds of 20-25 kt are possible during the day Sunday.

Long Term...Other than some possible valley fog at night and the
early mornings at HIE and LEB, VFR conditions are expected
through the middle of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Gales have been issued on the outer waters for
early Sunday morning through Sunday after in strong NE flow
formed between high pressure to our N and remnant low of Ian to
our S. Otherwise expect SCAs to linger into Sunday night.

Long Term...Even though winds will gradually diminish through the
day on Monday, will likely need to keep an SCA through much of
the day as seas over 5 ft will be slower to subside. Another
period of SCA conditions look possible toward the middle of next
week but more likely toward the end of the week as winds
increase ahead of and behind a cold front that looks to cross
the waters on Friday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 6 AM to 5 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ150-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ151-
     153.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Legro


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