Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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000
FXHW60 PHFO 040657
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
857 PM HST Mon Oct 3 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A wet pattern will linger through much of the week over the
eastern end of the state where an old frontal boundary lingers.
Drier and more stable conditions with moderate northeast trades
will continue over the western end through midweek. Trades will
diminish Thursday through the upcoming weekend as a front stalls
north of the islands. This combined with an area of tropical
moisture moving up the island chain from the southeast will
support a wet pattern setting up for much of the state this
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Guidance remains in good agreement and shows the moisture axis
associated with an old frontal boundary lingering over Maui County
and the Big Island through much of the week. This combined with
broad upper troughing over the region will support a wet pattern
persisting for these areas each day. Similar to what was observed
this afternoon, some showers could become heavy at times and
thunderstorm or two can`t be completed ruled out through the peak
heating hours. For the western end of the state, expect the stable
and drier conditions with moderate northeast trades to continue
through midweek.

For the extended period (Thursday through the weekend), guidance
remains in decent agreement and shows a broad cut off upper low
setting up far north of the islands due to a blocking pattern
over the west coast. The attendant cold front is shown dropping
southward and stalling near or just north of the state by Friday.
This pattern will translate to a land and sea breeze regime
evolving statewide. The upper trough over the region combined
with deep tropical moisture pulling up from the southeast and
potentially the moisture axis associated with the tail-end of the
frontal boundary clipping Kauai will potentially lead to a wet
pattern unfolding for most areas this weekend. Showers will favor
interior and leeward areas through the afternoon and early evening
hours with the sea breezes.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moisture associated with the weakening front which is stalled
over the eastern end of the state, continues to generate scattered
to numerous showers from Molokai eastward across the Bid Island.
These showers will continue tonight through Tuesday. Otherwise,
limited moisture on the backside of the stalled front, will
maintain mainly VFR conds over Kauai and Oahu.

The deeper moisture remaining anchored near the Big Island will
continue MVFR conditions and the need for AIRMET Sierra, for
tempo mountain obscuration across the Big Island and some windward
locations of the smaller islands.

&&

.MARINE...
A front over the area will gradually dissipate through Tuesday.
Moderate northeast to east winds will persist through the rest of
the week.

A couple of small to moderate, medium-period swells with a
northerly component will move through the islands this week. A
north-northeast swell will fill in tonight. Surf with this swell
will rise along north facing shores, peaking Tuesday, but is
expected to remain below advisory levels. Concurrently, a small
northwest swell will move through into mid-week. These two swells
will subside through Thursday. A larger north swell is forecast
to arrive late Thursday into Friday, boosting north shore surf to
near advisory levels Friday and Saturday.

A small, medium period south swell will lower gradually through
the middle of the week to background levels. A slightly larger
bump in south swell is expected Friday or Saturday.

Weaker trades over and upwind of the state will keep east shore
surf on the small side. Any slight increase in west or east shore
surf would come from north-swell wrap.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&
$$

DISCUSSION...Gibbs
AVIATION...SWR
MARINE...Kinel


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