Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 031838

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
138 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022


Issued at 138 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

A pleasant day across the Tennessee Valley with temperatures early
this afternoon in the upper 60s to low 70s. Temperatures will
continue to climb a few degrees with highs in the mid to upper
70s. The upper level pattern features a closed low across the
Northern Rockies and another closed low across the Mid-Atlantic.
Ridging is in place between these closed lows across the Great
Plains into the Upper Midwest. Closer to home, mid and upper level
flow is generally from the north. At the surface, high pressure
is centered across the Great Lakes. PW values remain around the
10th-25th percentiles for early October as the dry airmass remains
in place. The dry airmass will radiate will overnight and will
allow for temperatures to drop down into the mid 40s to low 50s.


(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

Dry conditions will continue to feature in the short-term portion
of the forecast period. The upper level closed low will remain
nearly stationary over the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. Models
indicate a 70-90 kt jet developing along the southern periphery
of this closed low near the Georgia/Carolina coastline. This will
lead to upper level confluence across the Tennessee valley with
subsidence aloft. Models indicate PW values dropping down into the
0.3-0.4 inch range on Tuesday as the dry airmass become even drier.
These values will be near minimum values observed for early
October climatology. This dry airmass will heat up well during the
day and cool off efficiently at night with a big swing in
temperatures throughout the day. Highs on Tuesday will be in the
mid to upper 70s with lows Tuesday night into Wednesday morning
dropping down into the low to mid 40s.

The upper level pattern begins to become a bit more progressive on
Wednesday as the upper level low currently across the Mid-Atlantic
moves out over the Atlantic. The closed low currently across the
Northern Rockies will transition into an open wave and will progress
southeastward across the northern and central Plains on
Wednesday. The associated cold front will move through the Great
Plains on Wednesday. Across the Tennessee Valley, the dry airmass
will persist with cool morning lows and warm afternoon highs.
Highs Wednesday and Thursday will be in the mid 70s to low 80s
with lows Wednesday night into Thursday morning in the mid to
upper 40s.

This dry airmass coupled with warm afternoon temperatures will
lead to RH values dropping down into the 20-30% range on both
Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Please see the Fire Weather
Forecast for further discussion.


(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

A dry cold front will race through the Tennessee Valley late
Thursday into early Friday. With little to no southerly return
flow ahead of the front, do not expect any precipitation will be
possible with the front. This front will bring in a reinforcing
shot of cooler air into the forecast area. Temperatures Friday
night into Saturday morning will drop down into the low to mid 40s
with upper 30s possible in a few locations. This will depend on
how elevated winds remain overnight behind the departing front.
Highs on Saturday will also be on the cool side with highs only in
the mid to upper 60s.

Ideal radiational cooling conditions will set up Saturday night
into Sunday morning behind the departing front. Lows will drop
down into the upper 30s to low 40s with clear skies and light
winds. This could potentially be the first frost/freeze of the
season. Temperatures will moderate quickly next week as the bulk
of the cold airmass retreats back to the north and east. Highs on
Sunday will be in the upper 60s to low 70s with highs on Monday
back in the mid to upper 70s.


(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

VFR conditions and northeasterly winds will continue throughout
the TAF cycle.




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