Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 012342
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
642 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022

Bottom line up front:  Dry with above normal temperatures through
Tue or Wed.  Potential for showers for Mon night through Tue night,
possibly into Wed. A big cool down for the end of next week.

tonight-Sun: Mid level warm advection, under a precipitable water
(PWAT) axis, led to a few showers or sprinkles across central and
south central KS this morning. As the afternoon progresses, this mid
level PWAT axis will slowly shift to the NW. So think a few
sprinkles will continue for the afternoon hours, across northern and
NW KS, as a mid level monsoonal moisture axis moves over the area.
This will leave mostly clear skies across the region.

A blocky mid to upper level pattern will lead to dry and slightly
above normal temperatures for the rest of the weekend into Mon, as
the upper level ridge remains centered over the region. Expect
afternoon highs in the lower 80s through Monday and possibly Tue.

An upper level shortwave currently over the northern Rockies, will
slowly make progress into the northern plains, by Mon or Mon night.
Impulses on the southern edge of this shortwave, will lead to a
gradual increase in mid level warm advection/moisture advection by
Mon night, with a gradual increase in shower chances for NW KS, by
Mon night. Not alot of appreciable deep moisture for a widespread
shower chance, but think lighter and isolated showers will be
possible late Mon night through Tue night across central KS, as the
mid level impulse moves across the northern plains. Better dynamics
will stay to the west/NW of the forecast area. Some of the showers
may even linger into Wed morning as well.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022

Medium range models and ensemble consensus are advertising a big
cool down late next week, as a deep longwave trough carves across
the Missouri Valley, allowing cool Canadian high pressure to move
south into the plains. A weak cold front will move through the area
for Wed night, but a much stronger cold front looks to push through
the area by Thu night.  This stronger front will not have alot of
moisture associated with it, but will certainly bring much cooler
air into the area for the weekend.

If the models are correct, we could be looking at daytime highs in
the 60s, and overnight lows in the 40s by Thursday night and Friday.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022

Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side through
the next 24 hours.

Not much is expected to change through this TAF period with an
upper low remaining over the Central Great Basin and weak upper
ridging over the Plains. This will keep some weak Lee troughing in
place and light east and southeast winds. Confidence remains high
that VFR conditions will remain in place.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    52  83  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      51  84  50  85 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          50  82  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        49  82  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   50  84  50  85 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         53  84  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      51  83  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          51  83  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       51  84  50  85 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     47  85  48  86 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         47  83  49  85 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            48  82  49  84 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    47  84  49  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...RBL


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