Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 040754
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
354 AM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be in place through Wednesday. A cold front
will approach on Thursday and move through Thursday night into
Friday morning. This front will usher in much cooler air for the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Temperatures have dropped down into the 30s and 40s this
morning. Have patchy and areas of frost in the forecast for
locations in the middle 30s and also continued the special
weather statement for frost. In addition there is some river
valley fog and some fog across northern portions of the region.
Have fog mention in the forecast in these locations this
morning.

Visibility will improve during the morning daytime hours.
Temperatures will rise into the upper 60s to around 70. There
will be some mid and high clouds at times, however expect lots
of breaks in the clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Mostly clear skies are expected overnight and into the day on
Wednesday. Temperatures tonight are expected to drop down into
the upper 30s to lower 40s. Cannot rule out some patchy frost in
some cool spots, however confidence was not high enough to
include at this time. Continued dry conditions are expected on
Wednesday with highs in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Sfc high pressure will be departing the region to the E to start the
long term period as a midlevel trof pivots in from the upper
Midwest. The associated sfc cyclogenesis with this feature will be
well north of the OH Vly into early Thursday morning, with the
frontal boundary trailing back to the SW across the wrn OH Vly as we
progress into the daytime.

Temps Wednesday night will be quite a bit warmer than will be the
case tonight, mainly due to the broad SW sfc flow that will become
established on the wrn periphery of the departing high. Temps on
Thursday will rebound nicely ahead of the quickly-advancing frontal
boundary into the afternoon, with highs topping out in the mid to
even upper 70s, with the front moving closer to the local area by
early evening.

Moisture return ahead of the front is going to be rather meager,
with LL flow ahead of the front more parallel to the front itself.
This suggests more of an anafrontal structure, with any ISO SHRA
activity likely to focus near or potentially /behind/ the sfc front
in the CAA regime in the area where LL convergence will be
maximized. Most of this SHRA activity, which will remain rather ISO
in nature to begin with, is likely to stay just N of the immediate
area as it moves in after sunset Thursday evening. However, suppose
a few stray SHRA will be possible near/N of I-70 as the front moves
in Thursday night. Temps will be on the downward trend Thursday
night in the CAA regime with breezy NW winds ushering in the
cooler airmass.

NW flow off of the Great Lakes may help keep quite a bit of cloud
cover in place across the N during the daytime on Friday, keeping
the diurnal rebound in temps to 10-15 degrees or less in some spots.
Cannot completely rule out a few lake effect rain showers Friday
afternoon in WC OH, depending on the orientation of the LL flow off
of the lakes. But regardless, Friday is going to have a "fall-like"
feel to it as highs top out in the mid 50s to lower 60s from N to S,
respectively.

Although there may be some lingering lake effect cloud cover Friday
night, confidence remains high in a very chilly night locally. This
will likely be the first night of the season with widespread frost
concerns, especially if the clouds are able to clear out and the
winds can calm sufficiently. Lows will range from the mid to upper
30s, with a few lower 30s possible should the conditions ripen.

Below normal temps continue right into the upcoming weekend, with
daytime highs in the mid/upper 50s Saturday and lower 60s on Sunday.
Another frosty night is likely Saturday night before high pressure
drifts off to the S/E by early next week, signaling the beginning of
a warmup.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
There will be the potential for some fog overnight. At this time
limited IFR mention to the river valley location of KLUK. In
addition, have some MVFR fog at KILN. Scattered high clouds will
move across the TAF sites overnight and into the day on
Tuesday. In addition, there will be a few mid clouds as well
during the daytime hours before clearing out in the evening.
Winds will generally be light and around 10 knots or less.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Novak
NEAR TERM...Novak
SHORT TERM...Novak
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Novak


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