Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 040845
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
345 AM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022

Today and Tonight...

Dry and fair weather will continue through today into tonight as
surface high pressure remains entrenched across the area. A few high
clouds were noted early this morning across the southern half of the
state on the southwestern periphery of a retrograding upper trough.
Far from rain makers, these thin clouds could however result in
somewhat reduced effectiveness of daytime heating and overnight
radiative cooling. For that reason, only minor adjustments were made
to the going NBM guidance which is well centered within the ensemble
envelope. Look for highs today to top out around 80 F for most with
lows tonight dropping to near 50 F near and north of Highway 82,
middle 50s F along I-20, and near 60 F for those along the Highway
84 corridor. /86/

Mid-week through early next week (Wednesday-next Monday)...

Mid-late week (Wed-Fri): A quiet fcst is anticipated through the
late week. Ridge axis is progged to build E through the TN Valley &
Appalachians into Mid-Atlantic by Thurs-Fri. Longwave trough will
amplify over the N Great Lakes & S Canada, with a piece of energy
lagging back through the N Plains. This will drive a cold front down
through the Plains & towards the region by late week. Dry air &
sensible weather will persist through the work week, with a
tightening gradient & winds in NW ArkLaMiss Delta by late week on
Fri. Highs will moderate above climo in the low-mid 80s Wed to mid-
upper 80s to near 90 degrees in NW ArkLaMiss Delta Thurs. As the
front dives to the SE Fri, highs will remain above climo, with the
warmest in mid-upper 80s S of I-20 corridor to low-mid 80s to the N.
Through this warm & dry period, will have to continue to monitor
for any increased mixing & limited fire danger potential. For now,
leaving HWO clear.

This weekend-early next week (Fri-next Mon): As trough digs across
SE Canada into NE & any progged lagging jet/forcing dives through
Mid-MS to OH Valley, a strong ~1030-1035mb sfc high will build SE.
Gradient winds will increase across the area, especially this
weekend on Sat-Sun. Cooler thermo will lead to more "fall-like"
highs, mainly below climo in the mid-upper 70s. With sfc high
building across the Mid-S, TN Valley & Mid-Atlantic on Sun-next
Mon, gradient winds will somewhat relax. This pattern will favor
cool lows Sat morn in the N in Hwy 82 below climo in the low 50s
while near the mid-upper 50s elsewhere. Coolest period is progged
Sat & Sun nights, with lows falling into the mid 40s N to upper
40s-near 50 degrees to the S across Hwy 84 corridor. Based upon
some ensemble MOS & percentile guidance near or below the median,
potential for some better rad cooling can`t be ruled out.
However, some overnight gradient winds limits confidence to make
much deviations on the cooler side. Highs will gradually moderate
near climo into early next week. Dry conditions & mixing
potential will persist, so continued dry fuels with some winds
could be a concern. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with winds
generally light and out of the north with gusts as high as 15 kts
this afternoon. /86/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       81  57  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      82  54  83  54 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     83  55  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   84  58  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       82  57  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    83  51  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     82  52  84  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

LP/DC/LP


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