Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 020114

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
914 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2022

Issued at 914 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2022

Forecast remains on track. No major updates.


.NEAR TERM...Tonight...
Issued at 400 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2022

Sunny and dry conditions this afternoon with breezy west-northwest
surface flow up to 15G25 mph as a trough of low pressure continues
to move through the area, with much drier air and deep west-
northwest flow moving in overnight. With clear skies and lighter
surface winds, temps tonight will tumble into the mid to upper 50s
over inland areas, but lower 60s near the coast. Used a blend of
the NBM and MOS guidance for low temps.


(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 400 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2022

A weak cool front approaches the area from the north Sunday and
pushes into the area late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night.
Temps warm up ahead of the front Sunday to lower to mid 80s again,
with west to northwest winds near 10-15 mph. Then, as the front
moves in Sunday night, some low clouds and northerly flow will
begin to affect the area, with the clouds mainly along the coast
and parts of southeast GA. Monday, mostly clear to partly cloudy
and a bit cooler in the wake of the front. A few light coastal
showers possible northeast FL on Monday night due to north-
northeast flow moisture convergence. NBM sky forecast looked a
bit too optimistic so blended with other guidance.


(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 400 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2022

A mid level trough will move out of the area Tuesday with
shortwave ridging briefly building in Wednesday. Another mid level
trough will dig in over the eastern U.S. Wed-Fri. Cool/dry
advection expected and will maintain very dry and cool air for
Tuesday and Wednesday with lows in the 50s over some inland areas
with pleasant highs in the 70s and lower 80s. A few members of
ensemble guidance indicate low temps in the upper 40s for southeast
GA on Wednesday morning. A cool front associated with the latter
mid level trough moves across the southeast states Thursday night,
and pushes into our forecast region Friday through Friday night.
Temperatures trend close to normal Thursday and near to above
normal Friday. Outside of a few coastal showers near St Johns and
Flagler counties Tuesday, the long term period is expected to be
precip- free.


(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 739 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2022

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period, with
clear skies and dry weather. Winds will become light and variable
tonight shifting to north-northwesterly on Sunday.


Issued at 400 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2022

A trough of low pressure will swing through area waters tonight,
with a cool front then moving south over the waters Sunday evening/night.
In the wake of the cool front, a high pressure system will build
to the north early next week, then move overhead by midweek. Strengthening
north winds and building seas expected starting early Monday, with
small craft advisory conditions possible on Tuesday. Winds and
seas trend lower by Wed as high pressure builds into the area.

Rip Currents: Surf near 2-3 ft and prior high wave event from Ian
keeps a moderate to high risk of rip currents going for area
beaches into Sunday. Increased winds and building surf on Monday
and Tuesday will likely keep an elevated swim risk/rip current
risk going for area beaches.


Issued at 400 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2022

Low RH values in southeast GA near 30 percent with gusty westerly
winds. Some areas of high dispersion through Monday are expected
due to enhanced transport boundary layer flow.


Issued at 400 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2022

Water levels along the St Johns River from near Downtown JAX to
southern Putnam county continue up to near 2-3 ft MHHW or roughly
2-3 ft inundation, with the highest depatures in Putnam county. The
coastal flood warning was extended through Sunday morning, with
additional warnings and advisories likely needed for portions of
the St Johns River basin in subsequent days.


AMG  55  83  58  79 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  62  81  62  76 /   0   0   0  10
JAX  58  83  61  78 /   0   0   0  10
SGJ  62  82  65  76 /   0   0   0  10
GNV  58  84  59  81 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  58  84  60  82 /   0   0   0   0


FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 9 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ033-038-132-

     High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ124-125-133-

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ125-133-138.

GA...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166.


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