Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 020110
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
910 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2022

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 731 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2022

A broken line of light to moderate showers can be found along the
Upper Keys and nearshore waters, mainly resulting from flow off
the mainland and a boundary related to a weak circulation between
the mainland and the Bahamas. Otherwise, the Florida Keys and
coastal waters have remained free of convection. In fact, the
evening sounding from Key West found a record low precipitable
water value for 00z on this date at 0.96 inches (old record 1.15
inches). Also, there is a 5 degree subsidence inversion above
800mb with very dry air above, and no potential instability. With
mainly gentle northwest to northerly flow, forcing for any
convective development will be weak at best. Therefore, any chance
of rain for the Middle and Lower Keys will be removed for the
overnight period in the evening update, and will keep the low
slight chance in the Upper Keys. Dewpoints across the islands have
been fairly steady around 70 degrees, give or take a few degrees.
The drier weather should persist for several days until our winds
veer back to easterly on Wednesday or Thursday next week, with
dewpoint temperatures potentially dropping into the mid 60s
tomorrow and into the early part of next week.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 731 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2022

Mainly gentle northwest to northerly breezes will persist
overnight and through tomorrow morning over the Florida Keys
coastal waters.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 731 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2022

VFR conditions will prevail at both the Key West and Marathon
terminals overnight and through tomorrow morning. Near surface
winds will be out of the northwest to north between 5 and 10
knots.


&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...Devanas
Aviation/Nowcasts....NWS Mobile
Data Acquisition.....JAM

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