Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 012338

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
638 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022

The potential for active weather will continue through the short
term. An upper level low will remain stationary over the upper
Rockies sending a series of shortwave troughs across the region.
Precipitation potential remains low and any that does develop will
be isolated in nature. For tonight, rain showers will be confined to
the Panhandle with a shift eastward for Sunday night. While
instability remains weak, there is a better chance of some embedded
thunderstorms Sunday night. Confidence remains low in any
thunderstorm development at this time, with severe risk being low
due to low instability and strong forcing across the region.

Temperatures will continue to remain well above normal through the
remainder of the weekend. Highs return to the upper 70s (north) to
upper 80s (south of I-80) for tomorrow. Lows both tonight and Sunday
night will remain in the low to mid 50s, nearly 10 degrees above
normal. Due to the unseasonably warm temperatures, frost and freeze
will not be a concern through this weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022

Active weather will continue into early next week as the closed
upper level low slowly drifts eastward on Tuesday. Continued rain
and embedded thunderstorm chances are possible across much of the
region. Widespread and heavy rain is not expected, but the prolonged
isolated showers will likely result in much of the forecast area
seeing at least some rain through Tuesday morning. Again severe
storms are not expected due to lack of instability and above normal
temperatures continue through Monday night.

As the low begins to push east on Tuesday, a slow pattern change
will emerge. A lull in the active weather arrives for Tuesday
afternoon through Wednesday night as the low tracks directly over
Nebraska. On the back edge of the upper low, cooler air begins to
filter in as well with highs dropping into the upper 60s to low 70s
for Tuesday and Wednesday and lows dropping into the 40s.

By Wednesday night a fairly decent cold front will have pushed
through bringing a more dramatic and rapid change in weather for the
end of the week. High temperatures drop even further into the low
50s to low 60s for Thursday and Friday. Low temperatures drop into
the 30s with some locations in northern Nebraska dropping into the
upper 20s Friday morning. These cold temperatures will likely cause
some frost and/or freeze issues for much of western and north
central Nebraska Friday morning. At this time, no headlines have
been issued, but if current trends continue, this will likely be

In addition to a temperature drop, some isolated precipitation
chances are possible Friday morning. At this time confidence remains
low and only a slight chance pop (less than 25 percent) is in the
forecast at this time. While development is uncertain, what is
certain is that if precipitation can develop, temperatures will be
cold enough to support some rain/snow mix. Warmer boundary layer
temperatures will keep precipitation from transitioning over to all
snow and any flakes mixed with rain will not accumulate. Still this
is worth mentioning as it`ll be the first occurrence of the white
stuff for this season and supports the major pattern change coming
up at the end of this week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the next 24 hours.
There will be some concerns with low level wind shear this evening
into the overnight, with winds just above the surface at 45 kts
out of the south. Winds at the surface will also remain breezing
through the overnight with gust up to 25kts possible. Winds will
briefly diminish towards morning before becoming breezy again in
the afternoon. Winds will be out of the south around 15 to 20 kts.




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