Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 012341
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
641 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022

At the surface a ridge of high pressure stretches from southern
Canada across the Great Lakes into Texas. The remnants of Ian remain
over the mid Atlantic states. Between these features and north to
northeast continues to drag in cooler than normal temperatures and a
very dry air mass which will remain in place into early week.

The period`s weather will remain very benign with temperatures
slowly moderating closer to normal, but remaining cooler than.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022

The ongoing dry weather will persist through the long term period
although the upper pattern will gradually transition through the
end of the week. Upper level ridging will still be in place from
the Great Lakes region to TX/LA, flanked by upper lows near
Chesapeake Bay and over the northern high plains. PWATs across the
region will be between 0.70 to 0.80 inches with mean low and mid
level RH values less than 50 percent and 30 percent respectively.
At the surface, high pressure will be draped across much of the
eastern CONUS, maintaining a northerly flow over the area.

A progressive pattern will develop from Wednesday through the end of
the week, with the northern plains shortwave sliding east. A series
of disturbances digging southeast out of Canada will carve a deeper
longwave trough across the eastern CONUS. This will ultimately
flatten the surface high over the southeastern states, allowing for
intermittent periods of east to southeast winds, ahead of another
cold front that is expected to move into the area by Friday. Despite
a modest uptick in moisture, overall moisture return and instability
will be too limited to produce precipitation across the area, with
no more than an increase in high clouds expected to accompany the
front as it moves through the region.

Temperatures will be on a warming trend from Tuesday through Friday,
prior to the next frontal passage. Afternoon highs are expected to
reach the upper 80s or possibly near 90 by Wednesday, while
overnight lows will be generally in the lower 60s. A slight cooldown
is expected to follow the front next Saturday, but temperatures
are not expected to be quite as cool as this past week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022

VFR will prevail through the period amid light NE SFC winds.

13

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022

A light offshore flow and dry weather will persist through early
this week. Seas of two feet or less can be expected

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022

Notable climate stats for the month of September...

Beaumont (BPT) had its 4th driest Sept with 0.53" of rain. The
record lowest amount is 0.21" in 1912.

Lafayette (LFT) had its 9th driest Sept with 1.26" if rain. The
record lowest amount is 0.33" in 2017.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  52  86  56  87 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  54  85  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  54  85  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  56  85  59  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...13


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