Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 031726
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1226 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

A very dry air mass continues to reside over the region. First,
aloft the confluent flow persists. IR satellite showed some high
cirrus cloudiness streaming north and eastward. Indeed, the 00z LIX
RAOB shows some slight H3 moisture increase, but overall this
shouldn`t have much impact outside of perhaps keeping temperatures
from dropping into the 40s again early this morning. Winds offshore
are somewhat elevated, generally at around 15 kts at times. Near the
lake, winds for KNEW were ranging from 10-15 knots early this
morning. Slightly more elevated wind speeds just off the deck have
effectively mixed down as the cooler airmass settles over the much
warmer lake/coastal waters. These winds should subside after
sunrise.

Overall the synoptic pattern doesn`t change much through the short
term period. The only slight difference will be the lower levels
where a surface trough will move westward across the central Gulf of
Mexico. This feature may get close enough to increase boundary layer
moisture just a bit over our far outer marine zones late Tuesday or
Wednesday, however, the QPF signal appears to be limited. No
surprise there with the drying from again the continued confluent
upper level regime. By midweek very subtle upper level ridging takes
place over the Southeast U.S.  This should contribute to a modest
warming trend, especially toward the end of the forecast period.
(Frye)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday  through Sunday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

Later this week a more zonal/progressive flow takes shape across the
region as we are expected to be situated between the eastern trough
and a developing mid level ridge over the northern Caribbean Sea. At
the surface, eyes point upstream to a cold frontal boundary moving
southward from the Cornbelt region toward the Midsouth and
eventually into our region sometime on the day Saturday. Without
quality moisture due to lack of a low level return flow, think any
frontal passage should remain dry. As for temperatures, ahead of the
front again temperatures look to remain in the middle and upper 80s
during the day, however, overnight lows should begin to drop into
the 50s again by next weekend. (Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with mostly clear
skies and generally light winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 406 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

Generally favorable marine conditions across the local waters
through the forecast period. Could have some moderate winds this
morning and again overnight tonight, but it appears wind speeds
should be just shy of cautionary headlines for the far outer
waters. (Frye)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  80  56  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  85  59  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  85  59  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  83  67  83  67 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  83  62  84  63 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  83  60  83  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM....RF
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...RF


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