Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 011951

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1251 PM PDT Sat Oct 1 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Quiet pattern under NW flow will continue to keep NV
dry and temperate to start October. However there may be an
isolated thunderstorm chance for SE White Pine County Sunday.


.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night

The Great Basin squeeze play between and upper level ridge along
the west coast and a pair of nearly cutoff troughs of low pressure
continues. One trough is located over Wyoming, Idaho and Montana,
and the other is still well offshore over the NE Pacific. With
the ridge sandwiched in between, these three features are aligned
in a quasi-omega blocking pattern. Normally for a true block the
key features are stationary, however the troughs are not fully cut
off from the polar jet an have enough momentum to keep moving
eastward. With one trough just to our east, NV will be under NW
flow aloft. This means quiet weather for most of NV for the short
term. Surface winds will remain light under this flow pattern with
light WNW to NW winds of 5 to 10 MPH with an occasional gusts up
to 20 MPH possible. With no new supply of cold air, temperatures
will slowly warm as the air mass moderates. High temperatures will
be near to or slightly above normal, ranging from the upper 60s
to upper 70s. While overnight low will range from the upper 30s to
upper 40s. The only fly in this ointment will be a weak upper low
over the Sonora desert for Sunday afternoon. This low will act to
steer some monsoonal moisture into SE White Pine County leading
to a low chance of isolated thunderstorms around Great Basin
National Park.

.LONG TERM...Monday through next Saturday

High confidence that ridging will be firmly in place over the
West through Friday. This will bring dry conditions and light
winds with above normal high temperatures in the 70`s to middle
80`s and lows mainly in the 30`s and 40`s.

Forecast confidence wanes on Saturday. A cut-off Low centered
around Southern CA or northern Baja looks to form and whether or
not this is able to draw some sub-tropical moisture up into Nevada
remains to be seen. Sticking with dry conditions for now with
persistent temperatures.


.AVIATION...VFR conditions along with light winds are expected at
all terminals through the next 24 hours.


.FIRE WEATHER...Outside of a low isolated thunderstorm chance for
SE White Pine County Sunday afternoon, NE Nevada looks to remain
dry. Temperatures will be near to a few degrees above normal with
light WNW to NW winds of 5 to 10 MPH with gusts around 20 MPH to
start the week.




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