Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 031826
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1126 AM PDT Mon Oct 3 2022

.SYNOPSIS...03/921 AM.

Temperatures will warm through the week as high pressure builds
over the area and limits the night through morning low cloud
pattern. Locally gusty winds will affect the western portions of
the Santa Barbara Coast this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...03/919 AM.

***UPDATE***

Onshore gradients are starting to weaken and temperatures are
already starting to respond with most locations trending warmer
than at this time yesterday, some by as much as 10 degrees.
Overall a very quiet day and likely week with minimal impactful
weather going on. A minor warming trend expected through the week
but well below any sort of heat advisory levels.

***From Previous Discussion***

Another sundowner is on tap for tonight it will be a little
stronger than Sunday evening`s but still under advisory criteria.
Continued offshore trends will limit marine layer stratus to the
Central Coast and even this might be overdone.

Continued warming on Tuesday as the E/W gradient will be near
neutral and there will be offshore flow from the north in the
morning. Look for 3 to 6 degrees of warming across the area. This
warming will bring most temps to 4 to 8 degrees above normal.

Not much change at all forecast for Wednesday in either the
synoptic parameters or the sensible weather. Perhaps a bit of
coastal cooling due to slightly stronger onshore flow.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...03/323 AM.

Medium range deterministic mdls are in decent agreement for the
long term forecast. Ensemble spreads mirror this with a tight
spread through Friday and then an increase in spreads over the
weekend.

Not much weather excitement Thu and Fri as the upper ride will
remain atop of the state. There is an increase in onshore flow
which more likely then not will increase the morning marine layer
stratus coverage across the coasts. Most temps will not vary more
than 2 degrees from Wednesdays warm values. Even through max temps
will be about 10 degrees above normal no triple digit heat is
forecast and while warm there should be no need for heat products.

Ensembles agree that a cut off low will form over nrn Mexico and
then wobble around all weekend. There is not the best consensus on
the exact location, flow pattern and moisture entrainment. So not
the most confident forecast. It will be cooler both days,
especially Sunday, as hgts fall and onshore flow increases. Look
for about 2 degrees of cooling Sat with another 4 degrees of
cooling on tap for Sunday. This still is not enough cooling to
bring temps to normal. Max temps on Sunday will be 3 to 6 degrees
above normal. There is a non zero chc of mtn showers on Saturday
but its under 12 percent. A near 20 percent chc of showers/TSTMs
develops over the ern San Gabriels Sunday as due the increasing
chc that the upper low will pull in a little moisture.

Taking a look a little further out both mdls bring some sort of
upper low to the area around the 15the or 16th.

&&

.AVIATION...03/1826Z.

At 1746Z, the marine layer depth was around 1400 feet deep at
KLAX. The top of the marine inversion was near 2800 feet with a
temperature of around 22 degrees Celsius.

High confidence in the current forecast for desert terminals.
Moderate-to-high confidence in the current forecast for valley
terminals. Moderate confidence in the current forecast for coastal
terminals.

For coastal terminals, VFR conditions should develop through 18Z.
There is a moderate chance (60 percent) of LIFR to IFR conditions
after 06Z Tuesday, north of Point Conception. There is a slight
chance (20 percent) of LIFR to IFR conditions in coastal sections
south of Point Conception after 06z.

KLAX...VFR conditions should develop around 18Z, at the latest.
There is a slight chance (20 percent) of LIFR/IFR conditions
after 06Z. Any easterly winds should remain less than 7 knots.

KBUR...VFR conditions are expected through the period.

&&

.MARINE...03/924 AM.

No changes to the marine forecast in the morning update.

Widespread Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds will develop
across the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel
Islands and along the Central Coast through this afternoon, then
persist through at least Tuesday evening. Winds will decrease
nearshore, but SCA level winds are likely to continue into early
Wednesday morning. There is a slight (20 percent) chance that SCA
level winds could linger into Wednesday. SCA level winds should
decrease for Wednesday, but increase again for late week.

Inside the southern California bight, winds and seas should
remain below SCA levels through at least this afternoon. There is
a moderate-to-high (40-60 percent) chance of SCA level winds by
this evening. Chances for SCA level winds will be highest across
the western and central portions of the Santa Barbara Channel.
Winds and seas should drop below SCA levels by Wednesday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT Tuesday for
      zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Tuesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...Sweet/Hall
MARINE...Sweet/Hall
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox


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